Election Night '28 - EOTNM

[KingSweden]

Continued from "Era of the New Majority," the election night coverage of 2028 (mixing it up this time).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=202832.0

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Yay!

[Mike Thick]

SO PUMPED

[KingSweden]

Welcome to continuing coverage on CNN of Election Night 2028! Tonight marks the end of a long, hard-fought campaign to succeed Republican President Brian Sandoval, who chose, to great surprise and controversy, not to seek a second term in office. Massachusetts Governor Seth Moulton, the Democrat, is favored over Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, but how soon will we know who the next President is? Will Democrats increased their majorities in the Senate and House, or will Republicans snatch back seats? And will the GOP hang on to their clean sweep of Gubernatorial mansions from four years ago, discounting Vermont and New Hampshire?

Tonight will be hosted by CNN Senior Correspondent Anderson Cooper. Joining him will be Senior Political Correspondent Luke Russert, formerly of NBC, and former House Minority Leader Terri Sewell, our Senior Contributor, along with former Indiana Governor and 2020 Republican Presidential nominee, Mike Pence, CNN Roundtable Political Contributor.

Throughout the night we will also be tracking the Senate and Gubernatorial results, with periodic updates on House races and other races of interest.

[KingSweden]

Cooper: Well, we're getting close to 6 pm ET, which means we'll have our first poll closings in Indiana and Kentucky, as is tradition. Word from Boston, where the Moulton camp is holed up right now, is that they feel pretty good heading into tonight. These should be two safe states for Tom Cotton, of course, who also projected confidence. Anything anyone else wants to contribute?

Pence: Well, I think in my old home state of Indiana, you know, Senator Cotton is in a position of strength. I'm interested in observing how the downballot races go. We're in a position there, the Republicans, that is, where there's some competitive races. Obviously in the 2nd CD we're looking at Congressman Dvorak and defeating him, and then there's an open seat for my old office of Governor and Senator Young is going to be in a tight race. I think the GOP will pull this out, though.

Russert: I think this is the canary in the coal mine, guys. The Electoral College becomes more and more stacked for Democrats almost every cycle, it seems, and Brian Sandoval really drew an inside flush against a bad poker player four years ago. If Governor Moulton keeps things close in Indiana, and maybe even Kentucky, does that signal that he's in for not just a good night but a historic night?

Sewell: Two years ago was a historic night. I think if Democrats can maintain those gains, we're looking at a realigning election. I also want to point out that you've got a Senate race in Kentucky between Senator Guthrie and former Secretary of State Adam Edelen that could get interesting later on. Edelen is kind of a Bill Clinton-style Democrat, Southern white moderate, you know, and there's been a lot of memories of President Clinton over the last month.

Russert: Kentucky is a race to watch. Obviously I think Senator Andy Beshear had lightning strike there two years ago in terms of a perfect storm of circumstance and opponent, and Cotton will definitely carry this state. However, Kentucky Democrats are trying to hang on to that State House of Representatives and Guthrie isn't a Rand Paul or a Mitch McConnell in terms of somebody with a  profile. Speaking of which, we're going to have former Senator Paul on later tonight to talk about his Liberty Initiative and what he thinks about the future of the Republican Party, regardless of if Senator Cotton becomes President Cotton.

[KingSweden]

6 PM ET

Cooper: And the polls have closed in most of Kentucky and most of Indiana! We've got about an hour left in parts of these states but we can start putting some numbers and projections out now.

For Indiana we are declaring it "Too Early to Call." Governor Pence, you have any thoughts on your home state?

Pence: I think Too Early to Call is right, Anderson. Look, I don't think Senator Cotton will lose here, but the polls just closed and there are some interesting races going on. I think we'll see Cotton come through in the end here.

Russert: We are going to issue the same call on the Governor's race, between US Rep. Susan Brooks and former South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg - Too Early to Call. The Senate race, between former US Rep. John Broden and Senator Todd Young, the same - Too Early to Call.

Meanwhile, we can call the race in the 5th Congressional District already for Republican candidate State Representative Alice Hogue. Hogue is the projected winner here. We're also projecting House Minority Leader Luke Messer to easily win the 6th Congressional District. We have competitive races in the 2nd, 8th and 9th that are Too Early to Call. We think, based on the information we have, that all of the other incumbents should carry easily. Governor Pence?

Pence: Spot on, Luke.

At this time we also project that Senator Cotton will carry Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. The Senate race in Kentucky is likewise Too Early to Call.

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 0
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 8

[KingSweden]

Senate

Governors

[KingSweden]

Russert: A few calls to make in key House races as we approach 6:30 and more counts come in from around the country. In Indiana, in what is known as the Bloody 8th, it looks like US Rep. Kevin Dunkett will likely be reelected to a second term. Right now, with 38% of precincts in, he leads 54-44 in a rematch over former Vandenburgh District Attorney Phil Brice. It is still Too Close to Call next door in the 9th in a race between Rep. Eric Maleen and former State Rep. Terry Goodin. We can also project that US Rep. Adam Koenig has been reelected in Kentucky's 4th District. Other races are too Early to call or Too Close to Call.

Pence: This looks a lot like two years ago, when Congressman Maleen pulled through narrowly in the end. He seems to be winning similar margins in some of the rural districts he won last time, though turnout appears to be slightly lower. It'll be interesting to see if he holds on - this will be a nailbiter. You know, I know Eric Maleen, good guy. This is a race to watch in Indiana tonight.

[KingSweden]

Russert: More updates here for you. Indiana's statewide races are all still too early to call, and in Kentucky we are projecting again all incumbents in the US House in the Eastern Time Zone will carry. So far, in Indiana, it looks like US Rep. Ryan Dvorak has a pretty decisive lead in the 2nd, looks like he's about seven to eight points ahead with almost half of the precincts counted as we are just about to make some calls at seven. Really quick counting in Indiana tonight.

Sewell: Yeah, your state is doing pretty good, Governor.

Pence: Thanks.

Russert: Interestingly, we are still too close to call on the Senate race in Kentucky. Adam Edelen is only a percentage point or two behind Senator Brett Guthrie and the numbers out of Louisville are really good for Edelen, with him winning over 60% of the vote in Jefferson County, and so far good numbers in Fayette, where he's doing really well, too. Edelen has that rural touch, I think.

Pence: Just keep in mind that Beshear was ahead most of election night and had much better numbers in rural Kentucky than Edelen does. Guthrie is doing okay so far, but this is not what you want to see if you work at the NRSC when extrapolating out to some more competitive races. The fact that Guthrie has such a small advantage and that Indiana is too close to call... I'd be concerned with some of these early returns.

[KingSweden]

7:00 PM ET

Cooper: It's 7 PM on the East Coast which means we have our first big batch of poll closings, and we'll have some more at the half hour. Want to take us through, Luke?

Russert: In the Presidential race, CNN projects Vermont will be won by Governor Seth Moulton, who earns the state's 3 electoral votes. Right now we are calling Georgia Too Early to Call and we are doing the same in New Hampshire. We will not be making any calls in Florida until voting stops in the Panhandle in one hour.

Based on polling and fundamentals, we are going to call West Virginia for Tom Cotton, and we are also going to call South Carolina "Too Early to Call," though we believe Cotton should have the advantage there too.

Sewell: Crazy to think South Carolina could be competitive...

Pence: I think it'll swing Cotton soon enough.

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 3
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 12

[KingSweden]

Russert: We also have some calls to make in some down-ballot races in these states, too. In Vermont, CNN projects that Senate President Pro Tem Pat Leahy will be elected to a record tenth term in the United States Senate. He is already the longest serving Senator ever, and will break John Dingell's record for longest service in Congress if he lives until the expiration of this term.

Cooper: Amazing stuff.

Russert: We also project that Governor Chris Pearson of Vermont will be elected to a second two-year term, as will Governor Collin Van Ostern in New Hampshire. The Senate race in New Hampshire is still too early to call, though with 3% of precincts reporting the returns seem to heavily favor US Rep. Matt Woodburn over Senator Chris Sununu.

Meanwhile, we are going to project in West Virginia that Governor Evan Jenkins will be reelected to a second term in that office, while we are going to project that South Carolina's junior Senator Tim Scott will defeat Democratic Congressman Joel Lourie, based on available polling and race fundamentals. Georgia's Senate race, between Senator Rob Woodall and US Rep. Eric Stanton, is Too Early to Call.

Pence: Keep in mind that Georgia has a runoff provision if neither candidate clears 50%.

Senate

Governors

[KingSweden]

Cooper: We are getting close to the 7:30 hour and we have a few more calls.

Russert: At this time we are comfortable, with the information we have, on calling the Indiana Gubernatorial race for former South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg, our first Democratic pickup of the night in any race. Right, now, with 61% of precincts reporting and many parts of Indianapolis and Northwest Indiana still out, Buttigieg leads Susan Brooks 52-47, a deficit we doubt she can make up. The Senate and Presidential races are both still Too Close to Call, but Buttigieg outperformed both.

Sewell: Amazing that a young, openly gay candidate like Buttigieg would carry a conservative state like Indiana. Your thoughts, Mike?

Pence: Well, I think attitudes have changed somewhat, but Hoosiers really just... well, I think they looked at the quality of the candidates. Congratulations, Governor-elect Buttigieg. It's a tremendous job, I should know.

Russert: With the information we have in Kentucky, we are also calling the Bluegrass State's Senate race for incumbent Senator Brett Guthrie, who has held a narrowly lead persistently. Lightning didn't strike twice, it appears, but Edelen kept this close.

Pence: Really close. Republicans should be concerned about this.

Cooper: Should the GOP be concerned about Kentucky moving forward? A lot has been made of the decline of rural areas across the country and Kentucky is a state with two fairly large cities in Louisville and, increasingly, Lexington. Your thoughts?

Pence: Long term, it's hard to say. I think Kentucky is going to remain a GOP stronghold for a long time. Close calls like these need to stop, though, if the GOP is going to remain competitive across the map.

Senate

Governors

[KingSweden]

For reference, the gradients I'm using:

90% Incumbent Hold
70% Open Seat Hold
50% Open Seat Gain
30% Pickup w/ defeat Incumbent

[LLR]

Sewell: Crazy to think South Carolina could be competitive...

You put that there just to annoy me, didn't you?

[Tayya]

Your attention to detail is worth a medal.

[KingSweden]

Your attention to detail is worth a medal.

Thank you, I appreciate that. Between this and my books I sometimes feel overwhelmed

I also wonder if I have undiagnosed OCD

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

Bump.

[KingSweden]

7:30 ET

Cooper: It is 7:30 PM here on the East Coast which means polls have closed in Ohio and North Carolina, two of the most important swing states in the country, and both have traditionally leaned GOP more so than many other swing states.

Russert: Ohio has trended Republican, which North Carolina has gone the opposite way, but yes.

Cooper: As of right now, we are calling both Ohio and North Carolina as "Too Early to Call."

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 3
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 12

[Heisenberg]

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

[KingSweden]

Cooper: We also have calls to make in a few other races here. First, that House race we were watching in Southern Indiana, in the 9th - US Rep. Eric Maleen has been elected to a second term in the United States House. This was a target for the DCCC, so it appears that so far the GOP is not losing any ground it gave two years ago.

Some other calls, however. Right now we are rating Ohio's Senate race as "Too Early to Call" as polls have closed but numbers are not trickling in. North Carolina's Senate seat as "Too Close to Call" as Senator Richard Hudson tries to fend off State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Jackson. We're also rating the Gubernatorial race in North Carolinas as "Too Early to Call" between Governor Pat McHenry and former Lieutenant Governor Don Davis. Any notes here, Luke?

Russert: Remember that the Tar Heel State has a habit of kicking incumbents to the curb, of both parties. Their Senate seats switch around quickly, and the Mansion has started to get that way recently, too. This is the country's prime swing state these days. I think Anthony Foxx on the ballot helps, but it'll be interesting to watch.

With that said, we have a big call up in New Hampshire. With 40% of the vote in and a 57-39 advantage, we are calling the US Senate race for US Rep. Matt Woodburn over US Senator Chris Sununu, the first Senate gain for Democrats tonight! An absolute pasting.

Pence: I think Governor Moulton being from right next door helps, but this is a state that swung hard right to President Sandoval four years ago and is swinging right back.

Russert: You made a big investment there eight years ago, Governor.

Pence: I did, but it's a tough state to crack, both in the primary and the general. I have a bunch of New Hampshire stories I could tell, really great people up in the Granite State, take politics seriously and love retail politics. It's really critical to engage the female vote, too. A lot of women, a lot of them angry, and you have to speak to those angry women.

Russert: Again, we are calling this race in favor of Congressman Woodburn. Chris Sununu has been defeated, the Democrats have their first Senate pickup of the night.

Sewell: For those of you at home, we're holding off on calling New Hampshire on the Presidential side for a little longer. Woodburn is outpacing Governor Moulton by enough, but the numbers in New Hampshire are good ones for the Moulton campaign.

Senate

Governors

[KingSweden]

7:48

Cooper: So what else are we watching tonight, Luke?

Russert: We have some interesting ones. We have, the big one, of course, the statehood referendum in Puerto Rico, the most direct that question has ever been presented. President Sandoval has campaigned for it recently and it has the support of the Democratic Party.

Cooper: What else?

Russert: For you election junkies out there, if you're watching state legislative and statewide races, we have some barnburners. Democrats want to sweep the North Carolina state offices tonight and have a young, hungry bench in place to do that. They're also protecting two state Houses they flipped two years ago in North Carolina and Kentucky - right now they look on track to keep both, and with a larger majority in North Carolina, but stay tuned. In some other state house races, it appears that Democrats are cruising to a slightly reduced majority in the New Hampshire state house, and there are two State Senate races outstanding up there, with a win in either giving them a majority in the New Hampshire State Senate for the first time in... oh, geez, I don't know how long. Decades. It's deadlocked now, was deadlocked ten years ago at the zenith of the Hillary landslide over Ted Cruz, and it's been almost twenty years since they had an outright majority.

Pence: I bet the Granite State's newly reelected Governor Van Ostern is watching those races carefully tonight.

Russert: In news that will probably not excite Democrats, Governor-elect Buttigieg in Indiana looks like he'll have total GOP control over the state house, as any gains the Democrats see in Indianapolis will be minor compared to their big wins two years ago, and statewide offices all currently see the GOP comfortably ahead.

Pence: We know how to win them in the Hoosier State.

Cooper: Don't get too comfortable, Governor, Senator Young is still not out of the woods. As of right now, Indiana's US Senate race is still "Too Close to Call" and former US Rep. John Broden has a very narrow lead, within less than 1% with 79% of the vote counted.

[KingSweden]

8:00 ET

Cooper: It's our biggest close of the night as the clock strikes 8:00 PM here on the East Coast. We have a flurry of calls coming at you, so hold on tight. Luke, take it away!

Russert: For states that have JUST closed, we can make the following calls:

We are Governor Moulton's home state of Massachusetts for Governor Seth Moulton, CNN projects Seth Moulton will win Massachusetts' 11 electoral votes. We are also projecting that Governor Seth Moulton will win Connecticut's 7 electoral votes and Rhode Island's 3 electoral votes. As of right now, CNN regards Maine's statewide vote as "Too Early to Call," but we can award Maine's 1st District to Governor Moulton as of right now.

Moving down the map, we can also call New Jersey, with 14 electoral votes, for Governor Moulton. CNN also projects that Governor Moulton will carry Maryland, with 10 electoral votes, and we project that Governor Moulton has won Delaware and the District of Columbia, each with 3 electoral votes. Next door, we have Virginia, a perennial swing state and bellwether - the Old Dominion, as of poll closing time, is "Too Early to Call." We are also going to put Pennsylvania, though it has not gone Republican since 1988, at "Too Early to Call." Remember that Brian Sandoval very nearly flipped both of these states four years ago, and they have been at the forefront of Senator Cotton's strategy.

Moving south, Florida has officially closed its polls in the panhandle and we can move it into the exciting category of "Too Early to Call." Alabama, with 8 electoral votes, we are projecting has voted for Tom Cotton. We are also projecting that Mississippi, with 6 electoral votes, has voted for Senator Cotton. Finally, we can project that Tennessee, and its 11 electoral votes, has voted for Tom Cotton.

Michigan, Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas will close their polls at 8:30 ET, and we should be able to safely project those pretty quickly.

Sewell: Also note that we have not called South Carolina yet but that call will be coming up in a few moments as we go around some downballot races first.

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 55
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 37

[KingSweden]

Russert: We also have a slew of calls to make on downballot races. Delaware's Governor race is Too Early to Call so we will go around the Senate here really quickly.

We are projecting that former Governor William Tong will win Connecticut's open Senate seat, a Hold for the Democrats. We are also projecting that incumbent US Senator John Sarbanes will hold on in Maryland without any issues, another Hold for Team D.

Florida's Senate race between Marco Rubio and US Rep. Evan Jenne is "Too Early to Call," as is the Senate race in Pennsylvania between Democrat Brendan Boyle and Republican Scott Perry, both US Representatives. We are VERY confident in projecting that US Senator Marthy Roby has been reelected comfortably in Alabama, a Hold for the GOP.

Senate

Governors

[KingSweden]

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

^^^ I've gotten interested in writing timelines solely because of the incredible detail and sheer brilliance of EOTNM.

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

Not to be a shill, but are either of you two (or any other patrons and fans of EOTNM) interested in reading any of my novels?

[KingSweden]

Russert: Okay, now that we're through that, we've actually got TWO calls to make. Terri, why don't you take these?

Sewell: Thanks Luke. Because they're very fast down in the Palmetto State, we have enough of the vote in to safely call South Carolina and its 9 electoral votes for Senator Tom Cotton. This is looking to be a much narrower win than usual for a Republican, though - we're looking at a 52-47 margin.

Pence: Yikes.

Sewell: And in other bad news for the Cotton campaign, we are projecting that New Hampshire will lend its 4 electoral votes to Governor Moulton, who is steadily hanging on to a twelve-point lead in the Granite State, leading 55-43. We are also calling that Democrats have flipped the New Hampshire Senate and are projecting they will now hold the New Hampshire House with an INCREASED majority, which is a pretty big turn of events. A really good night for Democrats in the swingy Granite State!

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 59
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 46