Election Night '28 - EOTNM

[Heisenberg]

How is New Hampshire still a swing state in 2028? You do know it will be trending HARD to the left over the next 12 years, right?

[KingSweden]

How is New Hampshire still a swing state in 2028? You do know it will be trending HARD to the left over the next 12 years, right?

Gotta throw SOME suspense in for TNvolunteer hehe. I also think that quirky states stay quirky, but that's just me.

[Mike Thick]

I would definitely consider reading your work FWIW

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

^^^ I've gotten interested in writing timelines solely because of the incredible detail and sheer brilliance of EOTNM.

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

Not to be a shill, but are either of you two (or any other patrons and fans of EOTNM) interested in reading any of my novels?

What are their typical subject matters?

[smoltchanov]

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

^^^ I've gotten interested in writing timelines solely because of the incredible detail and sheer brilliance of EOTNM.

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

Not to be a shill, but are either of you two (or any other patrons and fans of EOTNM) interested in reading any of my novels?

Subject (i am, surely, one of the fans of EOTNM)?))

[Heisenberg]

I would definitely consider reading your work FWIW

[KingSweden]

Responding to all above:

I mostly dabble in science fiction, with four novels (the first is free!) in an unfinished series (working on #5 next) and have two spinoffs in that universe coming out this fall. Also have an unrelated police procedural/thriller I wrote.

If interested I'll PM you the link to my author page on Amazon (I am 100% eBook). I'm not big on using my real name on Atlas since I am "a liberal who writes conservative books" like mil SF and dark police thrillers and many of my readers may be alienated by EOTNM even though it's not exactly a liberal's fantasy. My books are pretty grim, just like EOTNM.

[Kingpoleon]

By the way, the Democrats last controlled the state senate in 2010. At least, that's when they had their last President there.

Good timeline. I'm excited for a Moulton-Foxx administration, even if I might prefer it the other way around.

[KingSweden]

Russert: A few more calls to make here as we go around the country, folks.

So far, "Yes" is winning in the Puerto Rico statehood referendum by a six-point margin, 53-47. Some Puerto Ricans said a "simple majority" wouldn't be enough, but this looks a little more decisive than the 50+1. President Sandoval is, of course, in Puerto Rico tonight rather than in Little Rock with Senator Cotton. No love lost between those two.

Pence: I like the President, a lot, which you all know, but I think he could have handled that much better...

Russert: Mike, I'll let you take this next one.

Pence: With pleasure. In Indiana's 9th District, US Rep. Eric Maleen will be a Hold for the GOP as he has defeated Terry Goodin a second straight time. So far, all of the House races in Indiana the Republicans worried about are Holds.

We have a few other races we're watching as we go around the country. A big one in your home state, Terri, where in the 2nd District freshman Democrat Brian Crook is hanging on by a hair, currently ahead by only 3,000 votes. He has voted to the right of the Democratic caucus consistently in the House but he was at the top of every list of most vulnerable incumbents. Your thoughts, Terri?

Sewell: Congressman Crook is a talented politician, great on the stump, a real throwback to the old Blue Dog Democrat, definitely an interesting case as he's a conservative white Democrat who represents the really progressive black communities in Birmingham and the very, very conservative suburbs to the north and in the rest of Jefferson County. Will be interesting to see if he can survive 2030 if he holds on tonight and we see a hypothetical Moulton Presidency.

We also take you to Virginia's 2nd District, where right now Democrat Jon Bolivar narrowly leads Glenn Davis 50-49 in a tight race. Watch this one, because both Presidential candidates having a military back ground and both Congressional candidates having a military background is having an effect down-ballot here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If PR votes to become a state, could resistance in the Senate ultimately result that in it not attaining statehood?

[KingSweden]

Cooper: For you real political junkies, we are also watching some more state house races. Again, we projected earlier that Democrats will Gain the New Hampshire Senate. So far, most state legislatures are staying pat - both Houses in Indiana will remain in Republican hands, Kentucky's House of Representatives will stay Democratic by a narrow majority again, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina will maintain monster Republican majorities. In a big blow to Democrats, including Governor Joe Schiavoni, it also looks like Republicans will hold the Ohio legislature at this time, albeit with a very narrow 50-49 majority in the State House as of right now. The Ohio Senate looks set to stay 18-15 barring any changes, as Republicans lead in all competitive races. Stay tuned for more information.

We have some intriguing races in the Atlantic region. Right now, we are projecting Democrats will Hold the Pennsylvania Senate, perhaps making some gains there, too. The Pennsylvania House of Representatives, currently Republican controlled, very close, is Too Close to Call. The North Carolina House of Representatives, currently narrowly held by Democrats, is also Too Close to Call. The North Carolina Senate is also Too Close to Call, although Republicans lead in 3 of the most competitive 4 races at this time, with very few precincts reporting.

Pence: It'll be interesting to see if Foxx on the ticket has much of a home state effect here.

Russert: I want to add that we are seeing Democratic pickups in Georgia tonight, with Republicans favored to hold both chambers in the State Legislature but with much narrowed majorities. We will have exact numbers later, the count in Georgia VERY slow this evening.

Sewell: Long lines throughout the state. Very exciting to see people participating.

Russert: Currently, both Houses of the Florida legislature are Too Early to Call, but Democrats appear to be in good position in both, with one seat in the Senate flipping the chamber and three in the House for a majority there. Wouldn't that be something.

[KingSweden]

If PR votes to become a state, could resistance in the Senate ultimately result that in it not attaining statehood?

It'll be an... interesting debate, I'm sure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If PR votes to become a state, could resistance in the Senate ultimately result that in it not attaining statehood?

It'll be an... interesting debate, I'm sure.

Agreed.
The arithmetic in the Senate would be difficult for statehood opponents I think. But who knows?

[KingSweden]

8:30

Cooper: Aaaand it's 8:30, which means polls have closed in an additional four states. Polls are now closed in Illinois, Missouri, Michigan and Arkansas.

At this time, CNN projects that Governor Moulton will win Illinois' 19 electoral votes, and we also project that Governor Moulton will carry Michigan's 15 electoral votes. Meanwhile, in one of our easiest projections of the night, we also predict that Senator Cotton will win his home state of Arkansas' 6 electoral votes with ease. Missouri is, as of right now, Too Early to Call. Mr. Cotton's running mate is, of course, Missouri's senior Senator Ann Wagner and he hails from the neighboring state. It will be interesting to see what happens here.

Pence: Yeah, keep in mind I did not carry Missouri eight years ago, and Missouri is a pretty conservative state. Should be interesting.

Russert: We are also changing our previous call in Ohio to "Too Close to Call," as Governor Moulton holds a narrow lead of less than 1%, with much of the state still outstanding. We are also projecting that Governor Moulton will win the statewide vote in Maine based on current reports, so we are moving the statewide 2 electoral votes to Governor Moulton. The 2nd District is, of course, still too close to call.

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 95
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 52

[KingSweden]

Russert: More calls across the board at the 8:30 hour here on the East Coast. Going from current poll closings first... we project that Senator Cheri Bustos of Illinois, Democrat, will be reelected, a Hold for Democrats. We also project that in Arkansas, former Governor Tim Griffin, Republican, will easily hold this open seat for the GOP.

Two big races in Missouri, meanwhile. In the Senate race we have a hot contest between Senator Scott Schaefer and the man he unseated six years ago, former US Senator Jason Kander. It is Too Early to Call. On the Gubernatorial side, meanwhile, Governor Eric Greitens faces off with State Senator Kendra James. Too Early to Call, but I think we can all agree Governor Greitens is favored to win here, too.

Some bad calls for the GOP around the country, meanwhile, as Senator Tim Ryan has been projected to Hold Ohio's Senate seat for the Democrats, while we are now projecting that Indiana Senator Todd Young has been defeated, I repeat, defeated by former US Rep. John Broden in a narrow contest. This is the second Senate Pickup for Democrats and CNN is now officially projecting that Democrats will Hold the United States Senate.

On the Gubernatorial side, some similar news as we are now projecting that former investment banker Mike Willem has defeated Governor Ken Simpler of Delaware by a narrow margin, and in North Carolina we are moving the race to Too Close to Call, Democratic Advantage as Don Davis appears to be largely ahead of Governor Patrick McHenry.

Pence: That's three Governor's mansions picked off by Democrats so far. Ouch.

Senate

Governors

[KingSweden]

Any thoughts, comments so far? Is this format working for everyone?

I will be on a hiatus from this for a little while with the long weekend and publishing my next book.

[smoltchanov]

It works for me.....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It works for me.....

[Kingpoleon]

Good election night so far! I can help you assemble a Cabinet when you're done, as that's fun for me. I understand some people on here don't like doing that, and so I would gladly help with that.

[Captain Chaos]

Good luck on that book, @KingSweden

[KingSweden]

Good luck on that book, @KingSweden

Thanks! Doing my last read-through of the manuscript now.

[Kingpoleon]

I have an idea of another young Republican attorney: John Tyler Hammons. He's a former four year mayor of Muskogee. According to Wikipedia, he's a Assistant Attorney General of the Cherokee Nation. Maybe after a couple of years as Oklahoma Solicitor General, he could be a U. S. Attorney for a District and then get appointed to SCOTUS.

[KingSweden]

Russert: We have three more calls on the Presidential side here now, with a little more time gone by... At this time, we're calling Indiana for Senator Tom Cotton. A narrow win, but after several Democratic areas reported in it appears his 5 point lead will hold. Meanwhile, we're going to go ahead and call Virginia for Governor Moulton as Senator Cotton is not close to hitting the targets he needs to in Southern Virginia or the Richmond suburbs to win, and we are also calling Maine's 2nd district for Governor Moulton in a very narrow contest, where Moulton is ahead by just over 1% of the vote with the areas expected to be most favorable to Senator Cotton reporting in.

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 110
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 63

[Kingpoleon]

What's the projected margin in Virginia? Three to five points?

[KingSweden]

What's the projected margin in Virginia? Three to five points?

I'd have to imagine it's a little more than that. Probably more like six or seven points, after all this time/demographic shift. Left of the nation, I'd assume.