Election Night '28 - EOTNM

[MasterJedi]

I do have to say I'm horrified of Chris Larson as Governor. Far left and vengeful.

[KingSweden]

I do have to say I'm horrified of Chris Larson as Governor. Far left and vengeful.

Is he? I don't know much about him... that's gotten me into trouble with some picks over the time I've worked on this.

[MasterJedi]

I do have to say I'm horrified of Chris Larson as Governor. Far left and vengeful.

Is he? I don't know much about him... that's gotten me into trouble with some picks over the time I've worked on this.

The Progressive left loves him, the mainstream/centrist left and the right hate him. So he could likely win a statewide primary.

The black community is against him though, or at least a lot of it. Called Lena Taylor "crazy" in the last election when she wouldn't bow to him and kiss the ring against Abele. Then due to that he got his pick Mandela Barnes (who he orchestrated to take out a moderate black Democrat in the assembly) to run against her and tried to pit Shorewood (white) against the rest of the district (black). Has tried to marginalize the black caucus in the capita (tried to open it up to anyone without their consent), has his own hand picked black candidates in the region that owe him favors, hasn't really done much for the community and has basically told them to get in line. The big reason why he's not liked though is a few years ago when a new district was formed (majority black but a majority white portion was added) he picked a white Democrat, campaigned only in the white areas and drove up turnout there which infuriated a lot of the black community.

[KingSweden]

I do have to say I'm horrified of Chris Larson as Governor. Far left and vengeful.

Is he? I don't know much about him... that's gotten me into trouble with some picks over the time I've worked on this.

The Progressive left loves him, the mainstream/centrist left and the right hate him. So he could likely win a statewide primary.

The black community is against him though, or at least a lot of it. Called Lena Taylor "crazy" in the last election when she wouldn't bow to him and kiss the ring against Abele. Then due to that he got his pick Mandela Barnes (who he orchestrated to take out a moderate black Democrat in the assembly) to run against her and tried to pit Shorewood (white) against the rest of the district (black). Has tried to marginalize the black caucus in the capita (tried to open it up to anyone without their consent), has his own hand picked black candidates in the region that owe him favors, hasn't really done much for the community and has basically told them to get in line. The big reason why he's not liked though is a few years ago when a new district was formed (majority black but a majority white portion was added) he picked a white Democrat, campaigned only in the white areas and drove up turnout there which infuriated a lot of the black community.

Jesus! If only WA politics were so exciting, we just get EWA conservatives frwakimg out about busses/light rail and fruit loops in Seattle trying to out-Tumblr each other

[KingSweden]

Would be curious too, MJ, on your thoughts about Mandela Barnes' dumpster fire of a Prez run in this TL

[KingSweden]

9:00 PM ET

Cooper: Polls have now closed in a number of additional states and we will take you through the calls as they come in.

Russert: At 9 Eastern we are calling the following states: we are projecting that Governor Moulton will win New York's 28 electoral votes. We are also projecting that Governor Moulton will carry Minnesota's 9 electoral votes. At this time, we are projecting Wisconsin as Too Close to Call, with 10 electoral votes at stake.

A number of other states in the upper Midwest and plains have closed now, however. We are projecting that Senator Cotton will carry 3 electoral votes in South Dakota and 8 electoral votes in Louisiana. We are also projecting that Senator Cotton will win 6 electoral votes in Kansas as well as 7 in Oklahoma. Texas is Too Early to Call, Advantage Republican. Governor Moulton made an unprecedented push in that longstanding Republican state - if Texas is in danger, Cotton has no path. We are also projecting that Senator Cotton has won three of Nebraska's electoral votes, with two left Too Early to Call.

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 147
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 90

[Kingpoleon]

Would you like some help coming up with third party tickets?

[KingSweden]

Russert: Some more calls thanks to recent poll closings, though no big surprises here. In New York, we are calling the Senate race for Hakeem Jeffries picking up Chuck Schumer's vacant seat, and in Wisconsin, we are calling a hold for incumbent Senator Ron Kind. In Oklahoma, meanwhile, we are calling a hold for Senator James Lankford, and in South Dakota, a hold for former Senate leader John Thune, who surprised many by running for another term after the debacle two years ago and a decade atop the caucus. Interesting choice by the Senator here.

In terms of open races, Louisiana will head to a runoff in December between Major Thibaut, Democrat and Barrow Peacock, Republican. In the other open race being called right now, we have no big surprise in Kansas, where six-term Representative Garrett Love - who, we should add, is only 42! - is projected to easily hang on to retiring Republican Jerry Moran's Senate seat, and one of the longest active streaks of party shutouts in the country continues as Democrats cannot pick off a Senate seat in Kansas. It has been nearly a century.

Pence: One of the quirky things in Kansas is the rifts within the local GOP, you know, you saw this two years ago with Kobach coming back, with Derek Schmidt, the then-Governor, jumping into a Senate primary against a sitting Senator... some crazy things in the last few years there.

Sewell: And their Governor is a Democrat.

Pence: Yeah, Greg Orman. Was a Democrat, then an Independent, then a Democrat again. Interesting too in that a lot of people who would otherwise be Democrats run as Republicans so they can get elected, and a lot of the Democrats there are old-school conservatives to the right of the national party.

Senate

Governors

[KingSweden]

Would you like some help coming up with third party tickets?

Sure! 3rd parties don't have much impact in this race but it'd probably be a good idea to get a feel on who'd run from where.

[KingSweden]

Russert: We have a few more calls to make around the country on some down-ticket races.

In North Carolina, we are projecting that Democrats will Hold the State House and Republicans will Hold the Senate, while Democrats are currently ahead in all statewide row officers, we are not ready to call any statewide races in the Tar Heel States. However, we are calling the first flipped House race of the night as Renee Ellmers has been defeated in her suburban Raleigh seat by Darren Jackson for a Gain of 1 for Democrats in the United States House of Representatives tonight.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, we are officially calling that Republicans will hold both state legislative houses narrowly, very narrowly. In Pennsylvania, we are now projecting a Democratic GAIN in the State House, meaning that Democrats will own a trifecta in the Keystone State after tonight, for the first time in twenty years.

We are also going to project that Republicans will Hold the Michigan Senate while Democrats will Hold the Michigan House, and that Democrats will Hold both houses of the legislature in Minnesota as well. Republicans are projected as of now to hold all legislative chambers in South Dakota, Kansas and Oklahoma, with Nebraska, of course, being a non-partisan unicameral chamber. Wisconsin is Too Early to Call, as is Texas.

Pence: It would be a disastrous night for Republicans if they lost either legislative chamber in Texas.

United States HoR: (D+1)

Democrats Gain:

NC-12 (Darren Jackson def. Renee Ellmers

[Heisenberg]

KingSweeden, it should also be noted that Greg Orman was also a registered Republican at one point. He even donated to Todd Akin's Congressional campaign in 2006.

[KingSweden]

KingSweeden, it should also be noted that Greg Orman was also a registered Republican at one point. He even donated to Todd Akin's Congressional campaign in 2006.

You know I thought I remembered him having been a Republican at one time but couldn't remember if that was the case and I was in a hurry. What an eclectic man.

[Heisenberg]

KingSweeden, it should also be noted that Greg Orman was also a registered Republican at one point. He even donated to Todd Akin's Congressional campaign in 2006.

You know I thought I remembered him having been a Republican at one time but couldn't remember if that was the case and I was in a hurry. What an eclectic man.

He was, and the fact that he has spent time in both major parties is why there was so much question as to who he'd caucus with if he won. I believe he said he'd caucus in the majority, but if he decided control (imagine one man himself deciding control) he would give it serious, serious thought.

[KingSweden]

KingSweeden, it should also be noted that Greg Orman was also a registered Republican at one point. He even donated to Todd Akin's Congressional campaign in 2006.

You know I thought I remembered him having been a Republican at one time but couldn't remember if that was the case and I was in a hurry. What an eclectic man.

He was, and the fact that he has spent time in both major parties is why there was so much question as to who he'd caucus with if he won. I believe he said he'd caucus in the majority, but if he decided control (imagine one man himself deciding control) he would give it serious, serious thought.

I remember that. Can you imagine McConnell and Reid both promising him the moon in return for his support?

[MasterJedi]

I do have to say I'm horrified of Chris Larson as Governor. Far left and vengeful.

Is he? I don't know much about him... that's gotten me into trouble with some picks over the time I've worked on this.

The Progressive left loves him, the mainstream/centrist left and the right hate him. So he could likely win a statewide primary.

The black community is against him though, or at least a lot of it. Called Lena Taylor "crazy" in the last election when she wouldn't bow to him and kiss the ring against Abele. Then due to that he got his pick Mandela Barnes (who he orchestrated to take out a moderate black Democrat in the assembly) to run against her and tried to pit Shorewood (white) against the rest of the district (black). Has tried to marginalize the black caucus in the capita (tried to open it up to anyone without their consent), has his own hand picked black candidates in the region that owe him favors, hasn't really done much for the community and has basically told them to get in line. The big reason why he's not liked though is a few years ago when a new district was formed (majority black but a majority white portion was added) he picked a white Democrat, campaigned only in the white areas and drove up turnout there which infuriated a lot of the black community.

Jesus! If only WA politics were so exciting, we just get EWA conservatives frwakimg out about busses/light rail and fruit loops in Seattle trying to out-Tumblr each other

We have that here too! Milwaukee is building a streetcar but he suburbs don't like it and tried to orchestrate two petitions (each failed spectacularly) and then tried to unseat the alderman who voted for it, even had a carpetbagger from Brookfield come to the south side, all lost too so we're safe! They always said we should spend that money on the buses instead, until the bus strike last summer where they said we really need to cut that funding (so basically bait and switch).

Would be curious too, MJ, on your thoughts about Mandela Barnes' dumpster fire of a Prez run in this TL

I imagine that's how it would play out. As of right now he's done in the Assembly. Got smacked by Lena Taylor and can't run for his old seat so he's done for awhile. I imagine he'll be back at some point though but with that devastating loss I don't think he gets far up the political chain.

[KingSweden]

I do have to say I'm horrified of Chris Larson as Governor. Far left and vengeful.

Is he? I don't know much about him... that's gotten me into trouble with some picks over the time I've worked on this.

The Progressive left loves him, the mainstream/centrist left and the right hate him. So he could likely win a statewide primary.

The black community is against him though, or at least a lot of it. Called Lena Taylor "crazy" in the last election when she wouldn't bow to him and kiss the ring against Abele. Then due to that he got his pick Mandela Barnes (who he orchestrated to take out a moderate black Democrat in the assembly) to run against her and tried to pit Shorewood (white) against the rest of the district (black). Has tried to marginalize the black caucus in the capita (tried to open it up to anyone without their consent), has his own hand picked black candidates in the region that owe him favors, hasn't really done much for the community and has basically told them to get in line. The big reason why he's not liked though is a few years ago when a new district was formed (majority black but a majority white portion was added) he picked a white Democrat, campaigned only in the white areas and drove up turnout there which infuriated a lot of the black community.

Jesus! If only WA politics were so exciting, we just get EWA conservatives frwakimg out about busses/light rail and fruit loops in Seattle trying to out-Tumblr each other

We have that here too! Milwaukee is building a streetcar but he suburbs don't like it and tried to orchestrate two petitions (each failed spectacularly) and then tried to unseat the alderman who voted for it, even had a carpetbagger from Brookfield come to the south side, all lost too so we're safe! They always said we should spend that money on the buses instead, until the bus strike last summer where they said we really need to cut that funding (so basically bait and switch).

Would be curious too, MJ, on your thoughts about Mandela Barnes' dumpster fire of a Prez run in this TL

I imagine that's how it would play out. As of right now he's done in the Assembly. Got smacked by Lena Taylor and can't run for his old seat so he's done for awhile. I imagine he'll be back at some point though but with that devastating loss I don't think he gets far up the political chain.

Nothing has soured me on the modern GOP more than suburban/rural politicians telling cities what they "can" do with their own tax dollars. It's probably what made my transition from R to D complete. Wish there were more pro-transit Republicans like you

[KingSweden]

Big screw up by me! As any astute reader of EOTNM knows, I sometimes blow past crucial details and contradict myself. I did so a few posts ago when I said Svante Myrick had been reelected - this is not his Senate class! Instead, it is Schumer retiring. Hakeem Jeffries wins in landslide after defeating fellow US Rep. Ruben Diaz Jr in a hot primary.

Also, Don Davis is running for Senate in MC, Jeff Jackson for Governor.

[KingSweden]

Russert: We have some more calls in the US House of Representatives, some BIG calls in Florida. Terri, take it away.

Sewell: CNN is now projecting several additional gains for House Democrats, where we start in Michigan's 1st District. US Rep. Justin Pennington has been defeated by former US Marine Major Taylor Miller for a Democratic pickup in Michigan's UP region, a major blow in an area where so far Tom Cotton appears to be doing quite well. In addition, we are going to call three races in Florida as Democratic pickups:

In Florida's 8th District, Travis Hutson has been defeated, I repeat, has been defeated by Daytona Beach real estate developer Tim Wilemon. We are also calling both open GOP held seats in Miami Dade for Democrats, as Mario Diaz-Balart in the 26th and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the dean of the delegation, in the 27th, both retired. We are now calling that Bartolomeo Crespo has won in the 26th, and Andy Ramirez has won in the 27th, both Cuban-American Democrats. Wow.

Russert: Really goes to show the changing loyalties of Cuban Americans in just the last ten years. The fall of the Castro regime a few years ago surely helped a lot too with some of the older anti-communists.

Pence: A note on all this, if we're seeing longtime Cuban machine districts falling to Democrats, if I'm the campaign of Senate Minority Leader Marco Rubio - my old running mate - right now, I'm worried. The numbers out of Miami-Dade are not good.

Russert: We will note that Republicans are running close in a few House districts across the Midwest in Southern Illinois and in Ohio. Keep your eye on some of these races as the night goes on to see if they flip any back.

United States HoR: D+5

Democrats Gain:

FL-8 (Tim Wilemon def. Rep. Travis Hutson)
FL-26 (Bartolomeo Crespo open seat gain)
FL-27 (Andy Ramirez open seat gain)
MI-1 (Taylor Miller def. Rep. Justin Pennington)
NC-12 (Darren Jackson def. Rep. Renee Ellmers)

[Heisenberg]

Wow (South Florida). The title really fits the timeline, demographic shifts are extremely important for the timeline and how the country moves pretty leftward. Despite it not aligning with my preferred direction of the country, I really enjoy reading it as it is super detailed, and I enjoy all timelines, regardless of the events. Keep up the good work.

[KingSweden]

Wow (South Florida). The title really fits the timeline, demographic shifts are extremely important for the timeline and how the country moves pretty leftward. Despite it not aligning with my preferred direction of the country, I really enjoy reading it as it is super detailed, and I enjoy all timelines, regardless of the events. Keep up the good work.

A lot of it fits with my personal analysis (I'm not super duper liberal myself, though I am a Democrat). I don't think we're gonna wake up tomorrow and have an ur-progressive country, but twelve years from now a lot of these shifts will have metastasized. There are definitely states that will begin moving rightwards in future years, though, so keep your eye on those...

[Heisenberg]

Wow (South Florida). The title really fits the timeline, demographic shifts are extremely important for the timeline and how the country moves pretty leftward. Despite it not aligning with my preferred direction of the country, I really enjoy reading it as it is super detailed, and I enjoy all timelines, regardless of the events. Keep up the good work.

A lot of it fits with my personal analysis (I'm not super duper liberal myself, though I am a Democrat). I don't think we're gonna wake up tomorrow and have an ur-progressive country, but twelve years from now a lot of these shifts will have metastasized. There are definitely states that will begin moving rightwards in future years, though, so keep your eye on those...

Of course, you did, for example, have that Republican wave in Oregon in 2022. And yes, while many red avatars get all pumped about solidly liberal Virginia, North Carolina, etc. in the future, some refuse to accept that some states will trend the other way. I don't think we'll ever have a super-liberal or super-conservative country, states will change. Also, I know that it will be a while before you get to it, but I am also really looking forward to seeing your 2030 reapportionment!

[KingSweden]

Wow (South Florida). The title really fits the timeline, demographic shifts are extremely important for the timeline and how the country moves pretty leftward. Despite it not aligning with my preferred direction of the country, I really enjoy reading it as it is super detailed, and I enjoy all timelines, regardless of the events. Keep up the good work.

A lot of it fits with my personal analysis (I'm not super duper liberal myself, though I am a Democrat). I don't think we're gonna wake up tomorrow and have an ur-progressive country, but twelve years from now a lot of these shifts will have metastasized. There are definitely states that will begin moving rightwards in future years, though, so keep your eye on those...

Of course, you did, for example, have that Republican wave in Oregon in 2022. And yes, while many red avatars get all pumped about solidly liberal Virginia, North Carolina, etc. in the future, some refuse to accept that some states will trend the other way. I don't think we'll ever have a super-liberal or super-conservative country, states will change. Also, I know that it will be a while before you get to it, but I am also really looking forward to seeing your 2030 reapportionment!

Haha yeahhhh that might be a while. I have a million and one things going on at work/with novels and it's been a crazy summer in my personal life too. This is a side project, for sure

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

RIP Travis Hutson, bonafide Conservative

[KingSweden]

RIP Travis Hutson, bonafide Conservative

Do you think he'll ever actually run?

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

bump