Election Night '28 - EOTNM

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

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[KingSweden]

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Thanks for the bump!

9:30 ET

Cooper: It is now 9:30 here on the East Coast and we have some more calls to make. Polls have closed in Iowa, and we have some additional calls in uncalled states to make.

Iowa is, right now, Too Early to Call. However, we can project that Governor Seth Moulton will carry Pennsylvania. We are also projecting that Governor Moulton will carry the state of North Carolina, flipping it back after President Sandoval won it four years ago. We are also going to call Minnesota for Governor Moulton. A massive haul for the Governor, and putting him in striking distance of the Presidency.

Russert: Yeah, Senator Cotton would need to run the board in the remaining swing states to still have a shot at this. He'd need Florida, where he currently trails but it is Too Early to Call, Georgia is tight, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin are really tight... we can't project Moulton as the victor quite yet, but this doesn't look good for Senator Cotton.

Pence: Right now I'm hearing from Republican friends of mine... despair. They're really depressed about tonight, about how it's unfolding.

Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 191
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 90

[Blackacre]

Surprised about Virginia and NC being called so early in the night. Did vote-counting become more efficient?

[KingSweden]

Surprised about Virginia and NC being called so early in the night. Did vote-counting become more efficient?

Heh I'd hope so...

[Blackacre]

Unrelated, but I have a hunch that President Sandoval isn't watching the returns from the White House. I've got a feeling that he's in front of the TV at his ranch in Nevada, a smile on his face, a beer in hand... and Former President Heinrich next to him.

Okay, probably not, but a guy can dream!

Comment about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out like they said they would negated by me going back and discovering that Sandoval is confirmed to be in Puerto Rico

[KingSweden]

Unrelated, but I have a hunch that President Sandoval isn't watching the returns from the White House. I've got a feeling that he's in front of the TV at his ranch in Nevada, a smile on his face, a beer in hand... and Former President Heinrich next to him.

Okay, probably not, but a guy can dream!

Comment about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out like they said they would negated by me going back and discovering that Sandoval is confirmed to be in Puerto Rico

Maybe in 2032, they'll be old chums?

[Blackacre]

Unrelated, but I have a hunch that President Sandoval isn't watching the returns from the White House. I've got a feeling that he's in front of the TV at his ranch in Nevada, a smile on his face, a beer in hand... and Former President Heinrich next to him.

Okay, probably not, but a guy can dream!

Comment about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out like they said they would negated by me going back and discovering that Sandoval is confirmed to be in Puerto Rico

Maybe in 2032, they'll be old chums?

Maybe! George HW Bush and Bill Clinton ended up on good terms, so why can't they?

edit: the whole thing about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out together is a reference to this:

November 2024: A few days after the election, Heinrich invites Sandoval to the White House for lunch and to give him a tour of the place. They hold a joint press conference where they appear remarkably cordial for two men who have just spent the last year attacking one another. At the end of the press conference, Sandoval states, "Most of all, I want to thank President Heinrich for his graciousness inviting me here today. I hope that, years from now, when we are both ex-Presidents, we can sit down at my ranch or at his place in New Mexico, have a few beers, and just talk about sports."

With the negativity in OTL 2016, that struck a chord with me. I read that during my binge read of your TL the day after the second debate in OTL and all the mudslinging within it.

[KingSweden]

Unrelated, but I have a hunch that President Sandoval isn't watching the returns from the White House. I've got a feeling that he's in front of the TV at his ranch in Nevada, a smile on his face, a beer in hand... and Former President Heinrich next to him.

Okay, probably not, but a guy can dream!

Comment about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out like they said they would negated by me going back and discovering that Sandoval is confirmed to be in Puerto Rico

Maybe in 2032, they'll be old chums?

Maybe! George HW Bush and Bill Clinton ended up on good terms, so why can't they?

edit: the whole thing about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out together is a reference to this:

November 2024: A few days after the election, Heinrich invites Sandoval to the White House for lunch and to give him a tour of the place. They hold a joint press conference where they appear remarkably cordial for two men who have just spent the last year attacking one another. At the end of the press conference, Sandoval states, "Most of all, I want to thank President Heinrich for his graciousness inviting me here today. I hope that, years from now, when we are both ex-Presidents, we can sit down at my ranch or at his place in New Mexico, have a few beers, and just talk about sports."

With the negativity in OTL 2016, that struck a chord with me. I read that during my binge read of your TL the day after the second debate in OTL and all the mudslinging within it.

Heh I'd forgotten about that until you reminded me further upthread. Sandoval seems to me like the kind of man who'd hang out with his predecessor and just shoot the breeze.

[Blackacre]

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[KingSweden]

Russert: Don't go anywhere, we have more calls in the Senate races coming to you now.

In Iowa, we are projecting that Senator Pat Grassley will be reelected to a second term. Really incredible, this seat has been in his family for 48 years - longer than Senator Grassley has been alive. In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, we can now project that Democratic nominee Brendan Boyle will win and hold this open seat held by retiring Senator Joe Sestak.

We are also projecting in the state legislatures that Democrats will Hold both houses of the Illinois legislature, the legislatures in Wisconsin and Iowa are Too Early to Call.

Senate

Governors

[Blackacre]

YES!!! (not to Grassley holding the Iowa seat, but to updates on this thread)

[Kingpoleon]

Who was Grassley's opponent and what were the percentages? I'm guessing David Dawson if it's close(under four points). Otherwise Anesa Kajtazović, Monica Vernon, and Tyler Olson could hold him to a victory between four and seven percent.

[KingSweden]

Who was Grassley's opponent and what were the percentages? I'm guessing David Dawson if it's close(under four points). Otherwise Anesa Kajtazović, Monica Vernon, and Tyler Olson could hold him to a victory between four and seven percent.

Anesa is a House lifer in this TL with eyes on Ag Chairmanship whenever Tim Walz retires/is defeated. I'll get into the specifics when I do my full roundup on the EOTNM main thread, but his opponent was the handsome, charismatic young rising star Jim Lykam (sarcasm, but Lykam is the opponent). I don't think it'd be that close.

Edit: Holy sh*t Lykam is almost 80 at this point! Scratch that. Tyler Olson it is.

[KingSweden]

Sewell: We have two House calls to make, and these are... well, a little anti-climactic. We have two races with flips in Ohio, that cancel each other out.

Democrats are still sitting on five seats gained in the House so far as we go to Ohio, where freshman Democratic Rep. Lou Gentile in the 9th, based in the Mahoning Valley and rural Eastern Ohio, has fallen far enough back where CNN projects he cannot make a recovery, losing a rematch with former State Senator Don Berg from two years ago. Gentile ran the perfect campaign and appealed to this white working class region at the height of the Democratic wave but Cotton is seeing very strong numbers here and Gentile simply cannot recover.

However, the net gain remains at five because Democrats have just beaten six-term US Rep. Jim Hughes, whose district is based in the increasingly Democratic Columbus suburbs, with attorney George Parks taking out Hughes narrowly. We are seeing enough returns here to comfortably call this race for Parks, and it is thanks to strong Democratic margins in places like this that Seth Moulton is clinging to a perilously tight lead in Ohio right now, which we'll remind you is To Close to Call.

United States HoR: D+5

Democrats Gain:

FL-8 (Tim Wilemon def. Rep. Travis Hutson)
FL-26 (Bartolomeo Crespo open seat gain)
FL-27 (Andy Ramirez open seat gain)
MI-1 (Taylor Miller def. Rep. Justin Pennington)
NC-12 (Darren Jackson def. Rep. Renee Ellmers)
OH-6 (George Parks def. Rep. Jim Hughes)



Republicans Gain:

OH-9 (Don Berg def. Rep. Lou Gentile)

[BuckeyeNut]

Damn. Sad to see Lou leave, he's really a great guy. Also extremely talented. At the same time, more than happy to see Hughes go. I forget what the OH-6 is supposed to look like, but I assume Parks is made up?

[KingSweden]

Damn. Sad to see Lou leave, he's really a great guy. Also extremely talented. At the same time, more than happy to see Hughes go. I forget what the OH-6 is supposed to look like, but I assume Parks is made up?

Roughly a East-West belt of counties from south of Franklin Co. to Zanesville. And yes, made up.

I just figured... that Eastern OH is a region that is going to swing super hard against Democrats long term, based on current patterns. At least from what I know, I could be wrong.

[BuckeyeNut]

I mean, that's probably right. If Lou had Athens and a bit of the area around Youngstown, it might be a different story. He's a good fit for the district as is, but the trends do seem to be against him. (Fun Fact: Obama actually did better with Appalachian voters than Kerry did, so if it is a white man with positions comparable to Obama, maybe not? But that's not where the party's headed.)

If any Dem could hold the district, though, it would be Lou. His current seat in the State Senate is insane, by the way. It covers 9 full counties and a 10th in part. It was R+6 in '12, and Lou still got 52% of the vote--outperforming Obama by about 8%.

[KingSweden]

I mean, that's probably right. If Lou had Athens and a bit of the area around Youngstown, it might be a different story. He's a good fit for the district as is, but the trends do seem to be against him. (Fun Fact: Obama actually did better with Appalachian voters than Kerry did, so if it is a white man with positions comparable to Obama, maybe not? But that's not where the party's headed.)

If any Dem could hold the district, though, it would be Lou. His current seat in the State Senate is insane, by the way. It covers 9 full counties and a 10th in part. It was R+6 in '12, and Lou still got 52% of the vote--outperforming Obama by about 8%.

^^ sounds like he was the right pick for me winning that seat in '26, then.

[BuckeyeNut]

Almost definitely yes. Keep up the good work!

[Horsemask]

Still really enjoying the timeline and the election night coverage! Thank you KingSweden!

[Blackacre]

Bump

[KingSweden]

Apologize for lack of updates, everyone - been crazy lately, in process of moving back to Seattle and I'm finally living with QueenSweden again after three months apart for work. This hasn't been in my list of priorities.

[KingSweden]

In the interest of getting this done... would y'all be okay with me just speeding this whole thing up? I hate not completing things I started, but... I kind of just want to dump a map and then do the regular through-line I typically do for elections.

[Mike Thick]

Sure!

[Horsemask]

Do what you need to -- the end product will still be exceptional as always