How do Portuguese Americans vote?

[King of Kensington]

I assume mostly Democratic, given that they're heavily concentrated in MA/RI.

I suspect their turnout is rather low though.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Looking at the presidential results from Fall River, New Bedford, and Taunton, it appears they're overwhelmingly Democratic (couldn't tell you why, though).

Fall River
2004: Kerry 75.60%, Bush 23.35% = D+ 52.25
2008: Obama 72.40%, McCain 25.42%, Nader 1.06% = D+ 46.98
2012: Obama 73.55%, Romney 24.84%, Johnson 1.01% = D+ 48.71

New Bedford
2004: Kerry 76.99%, Bush 22.08% = D+ 54.91
2008: Obama 73.42%, McCain 24.20%, Nader 0.89% = D+ 49.22
2012: Obama 75.65%, Romney 22.62%, Johnson 0.96% = D+ 53.03

Taunton
2004: Kerry 62.22%, Bush 36.77% = D+ 25.45
2008: Obama 58.77%, McCain 38.50%, Nader 1.15% = D+ 20.27
2012: Obama 59.58%, Romney 38.62%, Johnson 1.21% = D+ 20.96

[nclib]

Sounds about right, but bizarre how they all swung Rep in 2008 and swung Dem in 2012. (Though I realize Kerry had home-state advantage in 2004.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looking at the presidential results from Fall River, New Bedford, and Taunton, it appears they're overwhelmingly Democratic (couldn't tell you why, though).

Throwback New Dealers, many of them. My uncle by marriage and his family are Portuguese-American.

[TDAS04]

I assume mostly Democratic, given that they're heavily concentrated in MA/RI.

I suspect their turnout is rather low though.

Why would their turnout be low?  Most of them are not recent immigrants.

[King of Kensington]

Low educational attainment and more recent origins in the US.

http://www1.umassd.edu/communications/articles/showarticles.cfm?a_key=461

[Classic Conservative]

A lot of my neighbors are Portuguese Americans, I went to school with a lot of them. At least where I live it's around 60-40 Democrat with most of them being moderates.

[Vega]

If I'm basing it on myself, Democratic.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Looking at the presidential results from Fall River, New Bedford, and Taunton, it appears they're overwhelmingly Democratic (couldn't tell you why, though).

Probably has to do with being predominantly Catholic and their semi-Hispanic status.  Most immigrant groups from southern Europe seem to be Dem-leaning.

[VPH]

As a Portuguese-American, I can vouch for the fact that we vote generally Democratic.

The three cities used to analyze the population here are bastions of the blue collar Portuguese-American population. The populations there tend to be less educated, deeply religious, and lower-income. Basically almost a New Deal coalition group.

New Bedford and Fall River were Hillary's strongest towns in Bristol County, while Taunton voted for her too.

New Bedford
2008: 70-27 Hillary
2016: 54-44 Hillary

Fall River
2008: 77-19 Hillary
2016: 55-41 Hillary

Taunton
2008: 71-25 Hillary
2016: 50-48 Hillary

Curiously, Fall River and New Bedford were two of Santorum's strongest towns in Bristol County. New Bedford was Trump's 2nd strongest town in Bristol. Bristol's total Republican vote went from ~25,000 to ~47,000. (88% increase) Statewide GOP turnout went from 370,000 to 623,000. (68% increase)

On a town level:

New Bedford
1880-3733: 99% increase

Fall River
2063-3613: 75% increase

Taunton
2271-4113: 81% increase

I believe that there will be a decent swing to Trump this cycle in Portuguese-majority blue collar communities, consistent with the general White ethnic trend. However, because there is a semi-Hispanic culture (noted by another poster), the swing may be smaller than among Italian-Americans and other ethnics.

Now, in California, where Portuguese communities tend to be more established, they are more conservative. See: David Valadao, Devin Nunes.

[Badger]

As a Portuguese-American, I can vouch for the fact that we vote generally Democratic.

But the question remains: why?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Don't Portuguese-Americans continue to have a significant presence within Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts Democratic Party machine politics? I would assume that this, combined with the related facts of Portuguese-Americans (like other "hyphenated American" white ethnic groups in the Northeast) being heavily involved in the New Deal coalition and still being disproportionately working class - and furthermore, continuing to have a strong working class ethnic culture, which would influence the political behavior of even the more recent and less working class generations of Portuguese-Americans - would make them still heavily Democratic compared to other white ethnic groups.

FWIW, according to Wikipedia, the top 3 states with the largest percentage of Portuguese-Americans are Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Hawaii - all of which are strongly Democratic states.

[Mike88]

As a portuguese, i'm pretty sure they vote heavily Democratic. That's at least the impression we have here.

[Mike88]

An interesting report about how 5 Portuguese American voters view both sides.

http://observador.pt/especiais/o-que-pensa-o-donald-trump-portugues-e-outros-quatro-emigrantes-das-eleicoes/

[jimrtex]

An interesting report about how 5 Portuguese American voters view both sides.

http://observador.pt/especiais/o-que-pensa-o-donald-trump-portugues-e-outros-quatro-emigrantes-das-eleicoes/

I only translated the first one, and he is quite typical of persons born in Portugal. They are overwhelmingly concentrated in New Bedford and Fall River. It is a quite atypical pattern compared to other countries, particularly European, which almost invariably have a primary concentration in New York City.

Also about half of those who report they were born in Portugal reported that they were born in the Azores. In the US Census, place of birth is a write-in, and there are codes for many internal areas, which the Census Bureau can tabulate various ways. So it is likely that the person responded "Azores" rather than "Portugal - Azores" or was prompted by a census taker, who followed up with a question of 'Would that be from the Azores, or on the mainland?'

There is a strong difference between New Bedford and Fall River in this regard, with New Bedford respondents to be more likely to report Azores, though the two cities have about the same number of Portuguese and the same total population.

My understanding is that a great number of Azoreans come to the US via the mainland. Perhaps they migrate to Lisbon, and don't feel at home, and so emigrate.

So maybe the questions should actually be: "How do Azoreans in southeastern Massachusetts vote?"

There is a much smaller concentration of Portuguese Americans in the Central Valley of California. They might be more Republican because of their political success.

[Mike88]

An interesting report about how 5 Portuguese American voters view both sides.

http://observador.pt/especiais/o-que-pensa-o-donald-trump-portugues-e-outros-quatro-emigrantes-das-eleicoes/

I only translated the first one, and he is quite typical of persons born in Portugal. They are overwhelmingly concentrated in New Bedford and Fall River. It is a quite atypical pattern compared to other countries, particularly European, which almost invariably have a primary concentration in New York City.

Also about half of those who report they were born in Portugal reported that they were born in the Azores. In the US Census, place of birth is a write-in, and there are codes for many internal areas, which the Census Bureau can tabulate various ways. So it is likely that the person responded "Azores" rather than "Portugal - Azores" or was prompted by a census taker, who followed up with a question of 'Would that be from the Azores, or on the mainland?'

There is a strong difference between New Bedford and Fall River in this regard, with New Bedford respondents to be more likely to report Azores, though the two cities have about the same number of Portuguese and the same total population.

My understanding is that a great number of Azoreans come to the US via the mainland. Perhaps they migrate to Lisbon, and don't feel at home, and so emigrate.

So maybe the questions should actually be: "How do Azoreans in southeastern Massachusetts vote?"

There is a much smaller concentration of Portuguese Americans in the Central Valley of California. They might be more Republican because of their political success.

Yes, the vast majority of Portuguese Americans have origins from the Azores but there are also some that came from Madeira and even mainland Portugal but in a much smaller scale.

The Portuguese american community in California is not that small. In fact, according to US 2010 Census more than 331,000 people claimed they are from portuguese descendent.
In terms of politics, it's not clear how the community in California votes, but the 2 only portuguese american congressmen are both Republicans.

This article from Público newspaper describes the California community:
https://www.publico.pt/mundo/noticia/a-festa-dos-portugueses-na-california-1728156

[Mike88]

Huge swing for Trump in the Portuguese Community in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. On the other hand, the Portuguese community in California appears to swing heavily for Hillary.

Fall River
2012: Obama 73.55%, Romney 24.84%, Johnson 1.01% = D+ 48.71
2016: Clinton 58.6%, Trump 36.6%, Johnson 3.2% = D+ 22.0

New Bedford
2012: Obama 75.65%, Romney 22.62%, Johnson 0.96% = D+ 53.03
2016: Clinton 63.6%, Trump 31.6%, Johnson 2.9% = D+ 32.0

Taunton
2012: Obama 59.58%, Romney 38.62%, Johnson 1.21% = D+ 20.96
2016: Clinton 51.9%, Trump 42.2%, Johnson 4.4% = D+ 9.7

East Providence
2012: Obama 69.6%, Romney 28.4%, Johnson 1.0% = D+ 41.2
2016: Clinton 59.6%, Trump 35.7%, Johnson 3.2% = D+ 23.9

Bristol
2012: Obama 61.9%, Romney 36.1%, Johnson 1.0% = D+ 25.8
2016: Clinton 55.4%, Trump 39.1%, Johnson 4.1% = D+ 16.3

Santa Clara County, California - Home to "Little Portugal"
2012: Obama 70.0%, Romney 27.1%, Johnson 0.9% = D+ 42.9
2016: Clinton 73.4%, Trump 21.0%, Johnson 3.6% = D+ 52.4

Alameda County, California
2012: Obama 78.7%, Romney 18.1%, Johnson 1.1% = D+ 60.6
2016: Clinton 79.5%, Trump 15.1%, Johnson 2.5% = D+ 64.4