To whom is Pennsylvania more important?
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  To whom is Pennsylvania more important?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which is more likely?
#1
Trump wins without PA		  
#2
Clinton wins with PA		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: To whom is Pennsylvania more important?  (Read 530 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
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« on: August 18, 2016, 08:13:29 AM »
The Pennsylvania Criticality Index.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 08:27:43 AM »
Pennsylvania is far more important to Trump. He cannot win without it. Clinton can.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 08:38:30 AM »
Quote from: whitesox130 on August 18, 2016, 08:27:43 AM
Pennsylvania is far more important to Trump. He cannot win without it. Clinton can.

That said, given what has happened over the past few weeks--if Hillary does not win Pennsylvania, she is in trouble.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 08:44:11 AM »
Winning PA is pivotal for the fake billionaire. Without PA, he has no plausible path to the magic 270 since other states that W carried (VA and CO in particular) are almost safe D this cycle.
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Redban
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 09:21:38 AM »
Equally important to both.

Trump can't win without it because VA, MI, and WI are safe Democrat; and if Hillary loses PA, then she has lost Ohio and Iowa too; I see no scenario in which she loses PA while winning OH and IA.
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Taco Truck 🚚
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 09:33:22 AM »
Quote from: Harry Perkins on August 18, 2016, 08:13:29 AM
To whom is Pennsylvania more important?

The person that can't win without it.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2016, 09:34:32 AM »
Quote from: Redban on August 18, 2016, 09:21:38 AM
Equally important to both.

Trump can't win without it because VA, MI, and WI are safe Democrat; and if Hillary loses PA, then she has lost Ohio and Iowa too; I see no scenario in which she loses PA while winning OH and IA.


BUT, she can lose Ohio, Pennsylvania and Iowa, while winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada and the election... no?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2016, 09:55:55 AM »
Clinton can win without PA, provided she holds CO, VA, and NH.

Interestingly, 538 has Pennsylvania on Clinton's "path to 270," not Trump's.  But Trump would need an unlikely sweep of NH, NV, IA, FL, OH, and NC.  Seems unlikely.
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Spark
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2016, 10:41:20 AM »
Clinton wins with PA. Trump needs to carry it because CO & VA are safe D. How would also need to get OH & FL.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2016, 10:43:12 AM »
She will win PA 5-6 points.
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Erc
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2016, 10:46:50 AM »
The question as worded in the poll isn't very useful.

With Clinton a 80-90% favorite, of course she's more likely to win with PA (80+% of the time) than Trump is to win without PA (a weird needle to thread, somewhere like 4% of the time).

A perhaps more useful question (similar to one posed in another thread):

Say you were to fall into a coma today and wake up on November 9.  You are informed that Trump won the state of Pennsylvania, but are told nothing else.  Do you think it more likely than not that Trump has won the election?
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2016, 10:55:21 AM »
It's hard to see either candidate winning without it, by this point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2016, 11:14:01 AM »
The night is done once NM, Iowa, VA, PA and NH and CA come in for Clinton
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LLR
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2016, 11:17:47 AM »
Trump has no path without PA

Clinton could win NC and thus be okay.
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2016, 11:53:19 AM »
The thread's title and the actual question are asking about two totally unrelated issues
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2016, 12:25:25 PM »
PA is the key to this election. No state is more important this year.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2016, 02:33:13 PM »
Quote from: alex on August 18, 2016, 11:53:19 AM
The thread's title and the actual question are asking about two totally unrelated issues

Why?  If it's more likely that Trump could win without PA, then PA is more important to Hillary.  And vice versa.

Quote from: BlueSwan on August 18, 2016, 12:25:25 PM
PA is the key to this election. No state is more important this year.

Agreed.  It's the only state that's utterly vital for both candidates.  Trump can't win without Florida, but Clinton can.  Same with Ohio.  But Clinton has a very tight path without PA, and Trump is nearly doomed.


There is a path, but it goes through NH (and ME-2 if he wants a majority).



This is consistent with 538's model of most likely paths, though I think Trump's chances in NH (H/T to TNV) and ME-2 are greatly exaggerated.
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Mallow
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2016, 02:44:13 PM »
Quote from: Harry Perkins on August 18, 2016, 02:33:13 PM
Quote from: alex on August 18, 2016, 11:53:19 AM
The thread's title and the actual question are asking about two totally unrelated issues

Why?  If it's more likely that Trump could win without PA, then PA is more important to Hillary.  And vice versa.

Because these are your poll options:
 Trump wins without PA
 Clinton wins with PA

The second should clearly be "without", also.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2016, 02:47:16 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on August 18, 2016, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Harry Perkins on August 18, 2016, 02:33:13 PM
Quote from: alex on August 18, 2016, 11:53:19 AM
The thread's title and the actual question are asking about two totally unrelated issues

Why?  If it's more likely that Trump could win without PA, then PA is more important to Hillary.  And vice versa.

Because these are your poll options:
 Trump wins without PA
 Clinton wins with PA

The second should clearly be "without", also.
the way the poll is written, there should be no votes for a. Option B is about 80% likely to happen. Option a can't even be a 1% chance.
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AGA
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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2016, 03:52:33 PM »
Essentially, this question is asking "If Clinton wins Pennsylvania, who wins the election?" Definitely Clinton winning with Pennsylvania.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2016, 03:58:31 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on August 18, 2016, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Harry Perkins on August 18, 2016, 02:33:13 PM
Quote from: alex on August 18, 2016, 11:53:19 AM
The thread's title and the actual question are asking about two totally unrelated issues

Why?  If it's more likely that Trump could win without PA, then PA is more important to Hillary.  And vice versa.

Because these are your poll options:
 Trump wins without PA
 Clinton wins with PA

The second should clearly be "without", also.

Oh crap.  Yeah, that's typo.  I didn't see that until now.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2016, 04:00:04 PM »
Second option should read "Clinton wins without PA.

Unfortunately there's no way to preview poll options to check them for errors.

Voting locked.
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