NV-Suffolk: Clinton +2

[heatcharger]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/poll-presidential-senate-races-in-nevada-are-dead-heats

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 42%

[heatcharger]

Democrats consistently underpoll in Nevada because pollsters ignore/under-sample Latino voters. In a year where Trump is sending Latinos to register in droves, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dem overperformance is bigger than it has been in the past few cycles.

Obama overperformed the RCP average by 6 and 4 points (2008, 2012), Berkley overperformed her average by 3 points, and Reid by 8.

Yup. You'd think Nevada pollsters would learn by now to include Spanish interviews.

[heatcharger]

The lower percentage of voters with a college degree is keeping the state closer than Colorado, although Clinton would almost definitely win Nevada by more than 2 in an election held today. 

Remember that the final RCP average for Nevada in 2012 was Obama +2.8, with no pollster having Obama with a lead bigger than 4.

Correct. Nevada unskewing actually makes sense because Democrats have consistently outperformed polling expectations, and the Hispanic effect is real. Sandoval in 2014 was an anomaly, not the new normal in the state in terms of polling.