The lower percentage of voters with a college degree is keeping the state closer than Colorado, although Clinton would almost definitely win Nevada by more than 2 in an election held today.
Remember that the final RCP average for Nevada in 2012 was Obama +2.8, with no pollster having Obama with a lead bigger than 4.
Correct. Nevada unskewing actually makes sense because Democrats have consistently outperformed polling expectations, and the Hispanic effect is real. Sandoval in 2014 was an anomaly, not the new normal in the state in terms of polling.
Yeah if it was just one cycle, I wouldn't make such assumptions about Democratic support, but it's been a pretty consistent factor in presidential cycles since 2004.
