Even with the caveat regarding underpolling of Democrats in Nevada, the polls are showing that Nevada is a closer race than Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Hillary will win in the end but that is an interesting change and could have implications in certain competitive congressional districts in California like CA-10.
That's a good point. Trump is probably a great fit for Central Valley and rural NV/AZ whites. I'd look more to the outer L.A. County and Orange/San Diego County R districts for surprise Dem pickup opportunities.
Even CA-25 has the sort of demographics Trump could be doing better with than Romney/Mccain. Places like Palmdale and Lancaster have a lot of working class whites along with minorities. Santa Clarita and Simi Valley aren't the most anti-Trump areas either. I would expect that swing towards Hillary more in places like Thousand Oaks, Calabasas, La Canada Flintridge etc.
In Orange County/SD County, Issa is obviously in some trouble. A sleeper race could be CA-39. I am fairly confident Hillary will win the district. Fortunately for the Republicans, Royce seems fairly solid with good outreach to the well-off Asian groups who constitute an important swing vote in that district.
