Why is Clinton underperforming in Nevada and Iowa?

[Badger]

Can we all agree that even with the Latino polling lag in NV plus Hillary very likely winning it in the end, the numbers are still closer than they should be?

IA will definitely trend GOP this year, but unless Trump turns the national numbers to AT LEAST a close race, he ain't taking the state.

Yes. But again, the combination of Latino polling issues and whites without degrees trending R, makes the weakness make sense.

BUT, she's still polling worse in NV than Obama was, whileher national lead is tangibly larger than Obama's. sure, she'll win comfortably here, but that doesn't change the fact something weird is going on.

kinda surprised at the Washoe County numbers. also thought her Clark County leade would be bigger.

[nclib]

The same reason she is over-performing in Colorado and Virginia.

"The number of white college-educated or Hispanic Romney voters for every white working-class Obama voter."

Good map, though deceptive, since Clinton will not make solid gains in the Deep South even in a landslide.

[Brittain33]

Interesting aside... Donald Trump just did an event in Iowa (he accused Hillary Clinton of targeting family farms for destruction) and he had Chuck Grassley, Joni Ernst, and Terry Branstad with him. Terry Branstad's son is running Trump's campaign effort in Iowa.

Polling aside, this looks like one state where Clinton's campaign effort actually faces a competing effort from the Republicans.

[Brittain33]

Interesting aside... Donald Trump just did an event in Iowa (he accused Hillary Clinton of targeting family farms for destruction) and he had Chuck Grassley, Joni Ernst, and Terry Branstad with him. Terry Branstad's son is running Trump's campaign effort in Iowa.

Polling aside, this looks like one state where Clinton's campaign effort actually faces a competing effort from the Republicans.

Aha, he was at Joni Ernst's event.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/28/donald-trump-iowa-republican-red-state

[IceSpear]

For Nevada...I'll believe it when I see it.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

The same reason she is over-performing in Colorado and Virginia.

"The number of white college-educated or Hispanic Romney voters for every white working-class Obama voter."

(see original post)

I can't post images at the moment, but this is exactly why it annoys me when people say that Nevada is "locked up"... Combined with the polls showing a virtual tie, there's no real reason that it shouldn't be competitive this year. The state is Likely D at best, and, unless some polls coming out showing Clinton up 5+, I'm keeping it as Tossup/Lean D.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Nevada ALWAYS undereggs the Dems due to Latino under-polling. I'm not concerned about NV. IA worries me simply because it has a majority of whites being without a college degree and it's a massively white state, so I expect it to be much much closer than the rest of the Midwest.

This, in part.  It's also a state that has, historically been contrarian.  It was a Dukakis 88 state, but a Bush 04 state.  Iowa is also a more religious state than most.  Trump is, certainly, not a "religious conservative", but religious conservatives (Ted Cruz be damned!) are making up some of Trump's most fervent supporters.  Trump has promised to end the prohibitions on 503c3 religious organizations from discussing politics in order to receive a tax exemption, and this issue plays well with religious conservatives.  

Nevada (as Michael Barone once pointed out in an issue of The Almanac of American Politics) is a state that, while having changed demographically, is a state where a lot of folks come with the idea that they'll strike it rich if only they're left alone, plus, outside Las Vegas, Nevada is deeply, deeply Republican.  Trump also has connections in Nevada that are real, and these connections do turn into a foundation of support.

[Badger]

Nevada ALWAYS undereggs the Dems due to Latino under-polling. I'm not concerned about NV. IA worries me simply because it has a majority of whites being without a college degree and it's a massively white state, so I expect it to be much much closer than the rest of the Midwest.

This, in part.  It's also a state that has, historically been contrarian.  It was a Dukakis 88 state, but a Bush 04 state.  Iowa is also a more religious state than most.  Trump is, certainly, not a "religious conservative", but religious conservatives (Ted Cruz be damned!) are making up some of Trump's most fervent supporters.  Trump has promised to end the prohibitions on 503c3 religious organizations from discussing politics in order to receive a tax exemption, and this issue plays well with religious conservatives.  

Nevada (as Michael Barone once pointed out in an issue of The Almanac of American Politics) is a state that, while having changed demographically, is a state where a lot of folks come with the idea that they'll strike it rich if only they're left alone, plus, outside Las Vegas, Nevada is deeply, deeply Republican.  Trump also has connections in Nevada that are real, and these connections do turn into a foundation of support.

washoe couty is only lean R at most,  and I believe there's noteworthy Democratic presence in some Clark County suburbs. the rest of the state outside those counties are indeed deeply republican, but only like 20-something% of the electorate. (even lower excluding Carson City, which is at least Democratic enough Obama won it in 08).

[andrew_c]

Demographics are very favorable to Trump in Iowa. As for Nevada, I have reason to believe that the polls are underestimating Clinton.

[White Trash]

I can smell the elitism in this thread from a board away.