Pew National Poll: Clinton +4
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Author Topic: Pew National Poll: Clinton +4  (Read 4089 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2016, 05:45:14 PM »

Numbers numbers numbers... but ignoring why GOPers usually do better in LV screens - and why they weren't reliable in 2012, they have a tendency to screen out Dem voters like first-time voters, itinerant voters, those who aren't confident in English.
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« Reply #51 on: August 18, 2016, 05:50:05 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2016, 05:53:03 PM by Seriously? »

Numbers numbers numbers... but ignoring why GOPers usually do better in LV screens - and why they weren't reliable in 2012, they have a tendency to screen out Dem voters like first-time voters, itinerant voters, those who aren't confident in English.
Yeah, when you are comparing the relevant data of polls that are employing a LV screen vs. those that are RV right now, actual data -- like numbers -- matter. My best guess is that it will be a 1-3 point shift to Trump when the data shifts for those polls that are RV, when converted to LV.

And again, this is based on data, not a partisan bent here.

And your arguments fail to hold water if the methodology is consistent. The screen would be uniform against those alleged biases as LV or RV. A non-english speaker will not answer this poll either way, for example.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #52 on: August 18, 2016, 05:55:14 PM »

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.

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« Reply #53 on: August 18, 2016, 06:06:10 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2016, 12:37:02 AM by Seriously? »

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.



You had Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That affected the numbers a tad. The 2008 final numbers were spot on. The 2004 numbers were within a point. 2000 had the Bush DUI arrest at the wire, IIRC, which likely was the cause of the slight shift (1-2% to Gore).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #54 on: August 18, 2016, 06:06:51 PM »

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.



You had Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That affected the numbers a tad. The 2008 final numbers were spot on. The 2004 numbers were within a point.


Sandy did nothing.
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« Reply #55 on: August 18, 2016, 06:09:48 PM »

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.



You had Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That affected the numbers a tad. The 2008 final numbers were spot on. The 2004 numbers were within a point.


Sandy did nothing.
Really? How could you get in touch with people in the Northeast during that time? Were they able to answer a pollster's call for the national aggregate? It's not like you are talking about more than a few points here.

And from an optics standpoint, you're telling me that Obama and Christie with a photo together didn't look good for Obama? Don't kid yourself.
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Flake
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« Reply #56 on: August 18, 2016, 06:40:14 PM »

lol ^
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #57 on: August 18, 2016, 06:44:34 PM »

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.
Usually it does, since LV polls are usually much/slightly better than RV.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voter-polls-will-usually-overrate-democrats/

And you cannot extrapolate Obama's numbers like you appear to do.

And yes, this election is quite unique.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #58 on: August 18, 2016, 06:52:47 PM »

RV voters overstate, LV understate, I was too flippant, but building your house of the sand of LV polls is an error, as is investing in RV polls.

My other point about variations between states is starting to appear.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #59 on: August 18, 2016, 07:02:53 PM »

RV voters overstate, LV understate, I was too flippant, but building your house of the sand of LV polls is an error, as is investing in RV polls.

My other point about variations between states is starting to appear.
LV polls do better on average.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #60 on: August 18, 2016, 07:11:09 PM »

RV voters overstate, LV understate, I was too flippant, but building your house of the sand of LV polls is an error, as is investing in RV polls.

My other point about variations between states is starting to appear.
LV polls do better on average.

RV polls overstate by a bigger margin than LV understate, I'll give you that.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #61 on: August 19, 2016, 01:34:45 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2016, 01:38:48 AM by Seriously? »

I don't know why you are laughing. Incumbency has its powers and trappings. One of them is the illusion of unity during times of crises or natural disasters.

I am not saying that Obama doesn't beat GOP-e Romney in 2012 regardless. I am well on record that Romney was a terrible candidate for the Republicans in that cycle. But the last statistical variation at the finish line had a bit to do with Hurricane Sandy affecting the results.

If you lived in NJ in 2012, Flo, you know very well that: 1) the power was out in a number of places on Election Day and 2) things were even worse over the weekend before election day, which is the traditional last weekend of polling.

If NYC/NJ are not adequately polled, the overall samples will skew Republican, as NY is a bastion of liberalism. About 7% of the US population lives in the NYC metro area.
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King
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« Reply #62 on: August 19, 2016, 02:10:28 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2016, 02:12:11 AM by King »

LV models don't really matter anymore now that Democrats have mastered the art of targeted early and absentee voting. The people will vote.

I would seriously worry about Republican turnout. They tend to vote more on election day and about a third of Trump supporters don't actually like him. Plus, he can't seem break 40 percent in any poll.

It's easier to stay home on election day than with an absentee ballot. Clinton will spend money to make sure all her lazier voters will have mail-ins. Trump has no infrastructure to combat it.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #63 on: August 19, 2016, 03:50:27 AM »

The hispanics love Jill!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #64 on: August 19, 2016, 05:46:56 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2016, 06:00:49 AM by LittleBigPlanet »

LV models don't really matter anymore now that Democrats have mastered the art of targeted early and absentee voting. The people will vote.
Have they really?  Why did they not use that in 2014? Does it work only presidential election?

When did they mastered it?  What evidence can you provide?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #65 on: August 19, 2016, 08:24:16 AM »

Numbers numbers numbers... but ignoring why GOPers usually do better in LV screens - and why they weren't reliable in 2012, they have a tendency to screen out Dem voters like first-time voters, itinerant voters, those who aren't confident in English.

Likely voters of course tend to be older, whiter, better educated, and more stable in residence. Such usually favors Republicans, and "likely voters" well modeled the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections which rarely create enthusiasm to bring new voters to the polls.

This time, educated white voters aren't so Republican-leaning as usual, at least in the Presidential election. There is no demographic I would rather have as my voters than well-educated white voters. Minorities? They are called "minorities" for good reason, and in relatively few states are they the majority. They are less amenable to cranky appeals of demagogues; they are more likely to hold their ground in an informal debate with less-educated (and less-informed) white voters.

So someone with the assertive ignorance of "Archie Bunker" tells an educated person that he is voting for Donald Trump because he will "Make America Great Again". Just imagine the possible retorts... "for whom?' ...'what's so bad about Barack Obama?'... etc.   
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King
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« Reply #66 on: August 20, 2016, 04:57:21 PM »

LV models don't really matter anymore now that Democrats have mastered the art of targeted early and absentee voting. The people will vote.
Have they really?  Why did they not use that in 2014? Does it work only presidential election?

When did they mastered it?  What evidence can you provide?

2008 and 2012? There's a lot of articles on the Obama campaign data and outreach operation that Clinton has now inherited. It's how the Democrats have locked up D+6/7 ID advantages in two straight elections.

For whatever reason, Democrats ran and hid during midterms refusing to attach themselves to the President or using the same kind of electioneering.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #67 on: August 20, 2016, 05:08:38 PM »

LV models don't really matter anymore now that Democrats have mastered the art of targeted early and absentee voting. The people will vote.
Have they really?  Why did they not use that in 2014? Does it work only presidential election?

When did they mastered it?  What evidence can you provide?

2008 and 2012? There's a lot of articles on the Obama campaign data and outreach operation that Clinton has now inherited. It's how the Democrats have locked up D+6/7 ID advantages in two straight elections.

For whatever reason, Democrats ran and hid during midterms refusing to attach themselves to the President or using the same kind of electioneering.
Articles?

In 2008 RV overestimated Obama with 2.6%. LV with 0.2%.
In 2010 and 2014 both RV overestimated Democrats heavily, while LV were very good.

In 2012 - yeah. But you can't extrapolate just one data point. Even if you might be right, you're probably not.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #68 on: August 20, 2016, 06:29:27 PM »

WOW!!!

Must be a hot late Summer.....

We have a ton of people arguing over RV/LV models based on one poll, while everyone is really waiting for more A Grade polls, preferably post Labor day.

Regardless of various squabbling from various Red and Blue avatars, over a potential 1-2% swing in national polling numbers, at this point we haven't seen any conclusive evidence that the race is tightening in either national nor statewide polls. So why bother arguing so much over one particular poll, when we haven't really had much to see over the past week to support evidence one way or another?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #69 on: August 20, 2016, 06:44:50 PM »

WOW!!!

Must be a hot late Summer.....

We have a ton of people arguing over RV/LV models based on one poll, while everyone is really waiting for more A Grade polls, preferably post Labor day.

Regardless of various squabbling from various Red and Blue avatars, over a potential 1-2% swing in national polling numbers, at this point we haven't seen any conclusive evidence that the race is tightening in either national nor statewide polls. So why bother arguing so much over one particular poll, when we haven't really had much to see over the past week to support evidence one way or another?
No, no , no! It's not about one poll, but how it works in general. Some red hacks are saying LV/RV choice doesn't matter, despite the fact that LV polls historically were better. That's it.

Whether LV will be more favourable towards Clinton or Trump is a different question.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #70 on: August 20, 2016, 07:14:04 PM »

WOW!!!

Must be a hot late Summer.....

We have a ton of people arguing over RV/LV models based on one poll, while everyone is really waiting for more A Grade polls, preferably post Labor day.

Regardless of various squabbling from various Red and Blue avatars, over a potential 1-2% swing in national polling numbers, at this point we haven't seen any conclusive evidence that the race is tightening in either national nor statewide polls. So why bother arguing so much over one particular poll, when we haven't really had much to see over the past week to support evidence one way or another?
No, no , no! It's not about one poll, but how it works in general. Some red hacks are saying LV/RV choice doesn't matter, despite the fact that LV polls historically were better. That's it.

Whether LV will be more favourable towards Clinton or Trump is a different question.

LV polls are historically better than RV polls without a question....

Regardless, y'all are making me want to run down the street to the local herb store to chill out for a few, considering how we aren't even post Labor day and tempers are running so hot. Wink
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #71 on: August 20, 2016, 07:55:57 PM »

Registered voters, too.. Glorious, glorious news to Make America Great Again.

Only you and 3 others support Trump on here lol.
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