Pew National Poll: Clinton +4

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As expected ... some closer national polling (despite great state polling) and some start looking for their passports. Chill.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Numbers numbers numbers... but ignoring why GOPers usually do better in LV screens - and why they weren't reliable in 2012, they have a tendency to screen out Dem voters like first-time voters, itinerant voters, those who aren't confident in English.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.

You had Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That affected the numbers a tad. The 2008 final numbers were spot on. The 2004 numbers were within a point.

Sandy did nothing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

RV voters overstate, LV understate, I was too flippant, but building your house of the sand of LV polls is an error, as is investing in RV polls.

My other point about variations between states is starting to appear.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

RV voters overstate, LV understate, I was too flippant, but building your house of the sand of LV polls is an error, as is investing in RV polls.

My other point about variations between states is starting to appear.

LV polls do better on average.

RV polls overstate by a bigger margin than LV understate, I'll give you that.