Pew National Poll: Clinton +4

[Seriously?]

Registered voters, too.. Glorious, glorious news to Make America Great Again.

[Seriously?]

Registered voters, too.. Glorious, glorious news to Make America Great Again.

Most polling shows that Clinton does better with LVs.

No, it doesn't. I can give you poll after poll after poll that suggests otherwise.

[Seriously?]

Registered voters, too.. Glorious, glorious news to Make America Great Again.

Most polling shows that Clinton does better with LVs.

No, it doesn't. I can give you poll after poll after poll that suggests otherwise.

Do it. Cant be a daily tracking poll.

2-way aggregate - LV Clinton +4% (all August) Clinton +3% (this week)
Reuters/Ipsos   8/13 - 8/17   1049 LV   3.5   41   36   Clinton +5
LA Times/USC   8/10 - 8/16   2551 LV   --   44   43   Clinton +1
Bloomberg   8/5 - 8/8   749 LV   3.6   50   44   Clinton +6

2-way aggregate - RV Clinton +9.1% (all August) Clinton 7.5% (this week)
Economist/YouGov   8/14 - 8/16   911 RV   4.2   47   41   Clinton +6
NBC News/SM   8/8 - 8/14   15179 RV   1.2   50   41   Clinton +9
ABC News/Wash Post   8/1 - 8/4   815 RV   4.0   50   42   Clinton +8
IBD/TIPP   7/29 - 8/4   851 RV   3.4   46   39   Clinton +7
McClatchy/Marist   8/1 - 8/3   983 RV   3.1   48   33   Clinton +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   7/31 - 8/3   800 RV   3.5   47   38   Clinton +9
FOX News   7/31 - 8/2   1022 RV   3.0   49   39   Clinton +10

4-way LV Clinton +5.5% (August+PPP) Clinton +3% (this week)
Rasmussen Reports   8/15 - 8/16   1000 LV   3.0   41   39   9   3   Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos   8/13 - 8/17   1049 LV   3.5   39   35   7   2   Clinton +4
Bloomberg   8/5 - 8/8   749 LV   3.6   44   40   9   4   Clinton +4
Breitbart/Gravis   8/9 - 8/9   2832 LV   1.8   42   37   9   3   Clinton +5
Monmouth   8/4 - 8/7   683 LV   3.8   50   37   7   2   Clinton +13 (likely outlier, but included in calculus)
PPP (D)   7/29 - 7/30   1276 LV   2.7   46   41   6   2   Clinton +5

4-way Registered Voter Clinton +7.4% (August +CNN) Clinton +5.3% (this week)
Pew Research   8/9 - 8/16   1567 RV   2.8   41   37   10   4   Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov   8/14 - 8/16   911 RV   4.2   41   35   7   3   Clinton +6
NBC News/SM   8/8 - 8/14   15179 RV   1.2   43   37   11   4   Clinton +6
ABC News/Wash Post   8/1 - 8/4   815 RV   4.0   45   37   8   4   Clinton +8
IBD/TIPP   7/29 - 8/4   851 RV   3.4   39   35   12   5   Clinton +4
McClatchy/Marist   8/1 - 8/3   983 RV   3.1   45   31   10   6   Clinton +14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   7/31 - 8/3   800 RV   3.5   43   34   10   5   Clinton +9
CNN/ORC   7/29 - 7/31   894 RV   3.5   45   37   9   5   Clinton +8

Places where both were measured
Washington Post VA Poll (where they were deceitful and went with RV despite having a better Trump number for LV) Clinton +14/11 RV, Clinton +8/7 LV
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243589.0

Reuters Latest release shows Roughly 3 point pro-Trump difference from RV to LV
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.17_.16_.pdf

Shall I beat this dead horse some more?

[Seriously?]

Numbers numbers numbers... but ignoring why GOPers usually do better in LV screens - and why they weren't reliable in 2012, they have a tendency to screen out Dem voters like first-time voters, itinerant voters, those who aren't confident in English.

Yeah, when you are comparing the relevant data of polls that are employing a LV screen vs. those that are RV right now, actual data -- like numbers -- matter. My best guess is that it will be a 1-3 point shift to Trump when the data shifts for those polls that are RV, when converted to LV.

And again, this is based on data, not a partisan bent here.

And your arguments fail to hold water if the methodology is consistent. The screen would be uniform against those alleged biases as LV or RV. A non-english speaker will not answer this poll either way, for example.

[Seriously?]

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.

You had Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That affected the numbers a tad. The 2008 final numbers were spot on. The 2004 numbers were within a point. 2000 had the Bush DUI arrest at the wire, IIRC, which likely was the cause of the slight shift (1-2% to Gore).

[Seriously?]

But the point is data shows us LV screens in most national polls under-egged Obama by 2-3% in the end. The numbers might look better but that doesn't mean the LV polls are closer to the truth. My bet is that Trump does better in LV screens in diverse (both race and education) states (VA, NV) than he does in more educated and/or whiter states.

You had Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That affected the numbers a tad. The 2008 final numbers were spot on. The 2004 numbers were within a point.

Sandy did nothing.

Really? How could you get in touch with people in the Northeast during that time? Were they able to answer a pollster's call for the national aggregate? It's not like you are talking about more than a few points here.

And from an optics standpoint, you're telling me that Obama and Christie with a photo together didn't look good for Obama? Don't kid yourself.

[Seriously?]

lol ^

I don't know why you are laughing. Incumbency has its powers and trappings. One of them is the illusion of unity during times of crises or natural disasters.

I am not saying that Obama doesn't beat GOP-e Romney in 2012 regardless. I am well on record that Romney was a terrible candidate for the Republicans in that cycle. But the last statistical variation at the finish line had a bit to do with Hurricane Sandy affecting the results.

If you lived in NJ in 2012, Flo, you know very well that: 1) the power was out in a number of places on Election Day and 2) things were even worse over the weekend before election day, which is the traditional last weekend of polling.

If NYC/NJ are not adequately polled, the overall samples will skew Republican, as NY is a bastion of liberalism. About 7% of the US population lives in the NYC metro area.