Will Gary Johnson break 5% of the national vote?
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  Will Gary Johnson break 5% of the national vote?		 « previous next »
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Question: Will Gary Johnson break 5% of the national vote?
#1
yes		  
#2
no		  
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Total Voters: 47

Author Topic: Will Gary Johnson break 5% of the national vote?  (Read 449 times)
cMac36
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« on: August 18, 2016, 01:39:46 PM »
5% is the key number for Johnson and the Libertarians because it would entitle them to FEC matching-funds in 2020.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 01:44:36 PM »
I think he'll end up at 4% or 4.5%.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 01:45:35 PM »
He will break 5%, maybe get 6-7% I think.
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Flake
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 01:55:00 PM »
I think he'll just barely get over 5% of the vote.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 02:01:12 PM »
Since the start of May, there has been 1 poll that had Johnson under 5%, which was conducted on Independence Day. He would have to either sabotage his campaign somehow or collapse much more dramatically than third-party candidates usually collapse to score under 5%.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 02:04:05 PM »
My guess is that he will be in the 4-ish range after the results are in.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2016, 03:07:29 PM »
No. 3%
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2016, 03:23:13 PM »
If he's still hovering near 10% when the debates start and he's excluded, there's a possibility. He'd probably lose half his support by November, but it would leave him in the 5% range.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2016, 03:26:41 PM »
I'm thinking just below that currently.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2016, 03:32:01 PM »
Assuming he doesn't make the debates, it's a complete toss-up.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2016, 03:36:26 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2016, 03:39:11 PM by Thinking Crumpets Crumpet »
Every election year, people say the Libertarians will finally achieve X% of the vote. They have yet to achieve over 1.1% of the national vote in any election they've ever been in and nothing about this election will make them magically get nearly 5x better than their best result ever. If he's very, very lucky he will get 3%.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2016, 03:38:46 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsMan on August 18, 2016, 03:37:45 PM
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on August 18, 2016, 03:36:26 PM
Every election year, people say the Libertarians will finally achieve X% of the vote. They have yet to achieve 1% of the national vote in any election they've ever been in and nothing about this election will make them magically get over 5x better than their best result ever. If he's very, very lucky he will get 3%.

They got 1.1% in 1980, not saying much but that's wrong.

Ah, yes. I always forget about Ed Clark. I'll correct my post.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2016, 03:50:05 PM »
Yes. Call me an idealist, but the stars have aligned for the Libertarians this year and I'm almost certain they end up over the magic number.
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