Trump to start running ads in FL, OH, PA, NC

[heatcharger]

http://www.nbcnews.com/card/trump-places-first-tv-ads-4-million-buy-n633796

The Trump campaign is set to roll out ads in four key swing states, purchasing a a measly $4 million in ad time. It's a fraction of the $61 million that the HRC campaign has spent, and the ads will run from August 19-29.

[Speed of Sound]

No VA, no CO. If they're surrendering those, they're admitting that they have to sweep these four states.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If its only for the rest of August, that number needs to be like $20 million if he wants to quickly turn the focus on Hillary. I'm curious what times they managed to get

[Gass3268]

Will they air ads in IA, NV and WI?

Lol, thinking Wisconsin could be competative.

[heatcharger]

Will they air ads in IA, NV and WI?

Lol, thinking Wisconsin could be competitive.

[Xing]

Will they air ads in IA, NV and WI?

NV and WI would be a waste, and while IA is winnable for him, there really isn't a scenario in which it decides the election, since it couldn't make up for losing PA. It's these four states or lights out for Trump.

[Heisenberg]

So is the Trump campaign doubling down on the Romney 2012+FL+OH+PA route?  I really think the Romney 2012+FL+OH+NV+IA+NH+(ME-2, optional 269 vs 270 is still winning for Trump) is the better route.

No, nothing with New Hampshire. He cannot win it. Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are vital for him, then he can go on to Iowa and maybe Wisconsin, with Virginia and Nevada as potential backups. If he somehow wins New Hampshire, then it's a blowout.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

So is the Trump campaign doubling down on the Romney 2012+FL+OH+PA route?  I really think the Romney 2012+FL+OH+NV+IA+NH+(ME-2, optional 269 vs 270 is still winning for Trump) is the better route.

No, nothing with New Hampshire. He cannot win it. Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are vital for him, then he can go on to Iowa and maybe Wisconsin, with Virginia and Nevada as potential backups. If he somehow wins New Hampshire, then it's a blowout.

Agreed. If he somehow wins NH, it will be 1980 all over again.

The problem with that strategy is it requires so many pieces to fall into place at once, and we all know how that went for Romney in 2012. I don't agree that NH is unwinnable but at this point it's more important to buckle down on FLOHPA as that is literally his only path to winning now that VA, CO and WI are basically gone. NH is superfluous. Pennsylvania is a long shot but it's his only shot.

[Ebsy]

A lot of big holes in this ad buy.

[Virginiá]

A lot of big holes in this ad buy.

Is there a map for Clinton/Priorities' current buys? Or did you make this?

[OwlRhetoric]

Is there any kind of similar tracking going for online video ads? You'd think the reach through Youtube, Facebook, and streaming services would be significant. Facebook allows very in-depth targeting, too.

[Flake]

Oh god it's a $550k ad buy where I am

I don't want to see trashy racism on TV

[Arbitrage1980]

So is the Trump campaign doubling down on the Romney 2012+FL+OH+PA route?  I really think the Romney 2012+FL+OH+NV+IA+NH+(ME-2, optional 269 vs 270 is still winning for Trump) is the better route.

I think they know they need to be 5-10 above 270, because faithless electors and NeverTrump congresspeople who can make Pence president just by deadlocking the House vote.

There is virtually zero chance of a faithless elector casting a vote that affects the actual outcome of the election. ZERO. 

[Arbitrage1980]

So is the Trump campaign doubling down on the Romney 2012+FL+OH+PA route?  I really think the Romney 2012+FL+OH+NV+IA+NH+(ME-2, optional 269 vs 270 is still winning for Trump) is the better route.

I agree.  At the moment, keeping all the Romney states is going to be tough since North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are so vulnerable.  But PA is just not going to happen due to Philly and its suburbs being decisively democratic.  Trump is anathema with college educated whites in the main line suburbs. 

Trump's best prayer, assuming GOP keeps the House, is to go for an electoral tie at 269: Romney states+FL+OH+IA+NV.  FL and OH were Obama's weakest states amongst the ones he won, and IA and NV are in play due to the high % of non-college whites. 

[Ljube]

Will they air ads in IA, NV and WI?

No, not worth the investment.
He needs PA, OH, FL and NC and he doesn't need IA, NV or WI.