How many write-in votes will Cruz get?
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  How many write-in votes will Cruz get?
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Author Topic: How many write-in votes will Cruz get?  (Read 497 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: August 18, 2016, 10:55:05 PM »

Surely the only former candidate who's a Real Conservative™ has to get some votes.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 10:55:47 PM »

I'm sure he'll get a few from his family.
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Spark
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 10:57:46 PM »

50
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 11:00:44 PM »

Fewer than Bernie.
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 11:01:36 PM »

What states would actually count the write-ins and which states would throw them out without counting them?

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Requirements_for_write-in_candidates

There's only 7 for unregistered candidates.
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 11:08:44 PM »

What states would actually count the write-ins and which states would throw them out without counting them?

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Requirements_for_write-in_candidates

There's only 7 for unregistered candidates.

So:
Vermont
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Iowa
Oregon

Most of these states he got crushed in during the primaries.  Honestly looks like his total would just be a couple hundred, maybe in the low thousands.

Iowa is about the only good one for him. McMullin is on the ballot there, which could draw some people away from Cruz.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2016, 11:11:20 PM »

If he mounts a campaign to solicit write-ins, around 5000.

Unsolicited write-ins: around 500.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2016, 02:19:11 AM »

Enough to win the election in a landslide, of course.
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Ricky1121
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2016, 10:08:56 AM »

Very, very little. He is viewed very unfavorably in his home state of Texas now, and Rick Perry could unseat him in a hypothetical senate race.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2016, 10:13:41 AM »

He probably won't get 1/10th of the write-ins that Bernie Sanders will get. Of course, we'll never know the exact numbers anyway.
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LLR
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2016, 10:21:18 AM »

What states would actually count the write-ins and which states would throw them out without counting them?

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Requirements_for_write-in_candidates

There's only 7 for unregistered candidates.

So:
Vermont
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Iowa
Oregon

Most of these states he got crushed in during the primaries.  Honestly looks like his total would just be a couple hundred, maybe in the low thousands.

Iowa is about the only good one for him. McMullin is on the ballot there, which could draw some people away from Cruz.

Oregon could be good for him too.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2016, 10:21:45 AM »

What states would actually count the write-ins and which states would throw them out without counting them?

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Requirements_for_write-in_candidates

There's only 7 for unregistered candidates.

So:
Vermont
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Iowa
Oregon

Most of these states he got crushed in during the primaries.  Honestly looks like his total would just be a couple hundred, maybe in the low thousands.

That looks like a pretty strong line-up for Sanders write-ins though. I wonder if he'll actually get over 1% as a write-in in Vermont...
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2016, 10:24:47 AM »

This is a good reference for estimating how many votes write-ins typically get.  As it says, italic numbers are write-ins:

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/2012presgeresults.pdf
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