Lithuania 9 October 2016

[FredLindq]

Parliamentary elections will be held in Lithuania on 9 October 2016, with a second round on 23 October in the constituencies where no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting.

Electoral system
The Seimas has 141 members, elected to a four-year term in parallel voting, with 71 members elected in single-seat constituencies and 70 members elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. Voting in the elections is open to all citizens of Lithuania who are at least 18-years-old.

Last election
Parliamentary elections were held in Lithuania on 14 October 2012, with a second round on 28 October in the constituencies where no candidate won a majority in the first round of voting.

Party                     %           Seats Proportional Constituency Total
Social Democrats    18.4%               15              24               39 (Change from 2008 +14)    
Homeland Union     15.1%               13               20              33 (-12)    
Labour Party           19.8%               17              12               29  (+19)    
Order and Justice     7.3%.                6                5               11 (-4)    
Liberal Movement     8.6%                 7                3               10 (-1)
Electoral Action of Poles 5.8%            5                 3                8 (+5)    
The Way of Courage 8.0%                 7                 0                7 (+7)    
Peasant and Greens Union 3.9%        0                 1                1 (-2)
Liberal and Centre Union    2.1%       0                 0                0 (-8)
National Resurrection Party                                                    0 (-16)
New Union (Social Liberals)                                                    0 (-1)
Others                             11.0%     0                  0                 0
Independents                                 0                   3                 3 (-1)
Total                            100.0%       70               71               141

The political landscape
The Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (Lithuanian: Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija, LSDP) is a social-democratic centre-left party. It is a member of the The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). It’s leader Algirdas Butkevičius is the current Prime Minister of Lithuania. It governs in an somewhat centre-left populist coalition with The Labour Party and Order and Justice.

The Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (Lithuanian: Tėvynės sąjunga – Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai, TS-LKD) is a centre-right christian democratic and conservative political party. It is a member of The European People's Party (EPP). After the elections in 2008 it formed a coalition government with the Liberal Movement, Liberal and Centre Union, and the Homeland Union's leader, Andrius Kubilius, became Prime Minister for a second time.

The Labour Party (Lithuanian: Darbo Partija, DP) is a centre-left populist political party. The party was founded in 2003 by the Russian-born millionaire businessman Viktor Uspaskich. It is a member of the The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party.

Party Order and Justice (Lithuanian: Partija tvarka ir teisingumas, PTT), formerly the Liberal Democratic Party (Liberalų Demokratų Partija, LDP), is a right-wing national liberal political party, though it self-identifies as 'left-of-centre'. It is a member of The Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group in the European parliament.

The Liberal Movement (Lithuanian: Liberalų Sąjūdis), formally the Liberals' Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (Lithuanian: Lietuvos Respublikos Liberalų sąjūdis) and abbreviated to LRLS, is a conservative-liberal political party in Lithuania. It is also a member of The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party. In 2008-2012 it participated in a governing coalition, along with the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats and the now defunct Liberal and Centre Union as well as the also defunct and the National Resurrection Party.

Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania (Lithuanian: Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija or LLRA; Polish: Akcja Wyborcza Polaków na Litwie or AWPL) is a political party in Lithuania. It represents the Polish minority and positions itself as Christian democratic. It is a member of The Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists (AECR).

The Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union (Lithuanian: Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga, LVŽS; formerly Lithuanian Peasant Popular Union, Lithuanian: Lietuvos valstiečių liaudininkų sąjunga, LVLS) is an Agrarian political party. In the 2014 European parliament election the party secured one seat in the parliament. After the election party announced considering joining the European People's Party (EPP) group. However, the MEP, Bronis Ropė, instead joined The Greens–European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA).

The Way of Courage (Lithuanian: Drąsos Kelias) is a populist political party in Lithuania. It was founded in 2012 and has an anti-corruption platform.

Defunct parties:
The Liberal and Centre Union (Lithuanian: Liberalų ir centro sąjunga, LiCS) was a conservative-liberal political party in Lithuania active between 2003 and 2014.It was a member of the Liberal International and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). In 2014, the LiCS merged with a party called YES to form the Lithuanian Freedom Union (LLS).

National Resurrection Party (Lithuanian: Tautos prisikėlimo partija; sometimes translated as Rising Nation Party or National Revival Party was a centre-right political party in Lithuania. Founded in 2008, the party merged into the Liberal and Centre Union in 2011.

The New Union (Social Liberals) (Lithuanian: Naujoji sąjunga (socialliberalai), NS) was a social-liberal political party in Lithuania. The NS was a member of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party (ELDR) and an observer of the Liberal International. In 2011, the party merged with the centrist Labour Party. A minority faction switched to the Liberal and Centre Union (LiCS).

Opinion polls and predictions
I have used the last opinion polls from Vilmorus in junge and Spinter Tyrmai in july. I have adjusted the for people answering “Won't vote”, “Don't know” and “No answer”. The constituency seats are harder to predict. Badet on previous elections results I have prediction that The Homeland Union and the Liberal Movement will get 25 seats together like in 2012, The Electoral Action of Poles there seats and Independents there seats. This gives 40 seats to Alicante between the centre-left n populist were the Social democrats and the Peasnts and Greens Union will the the lionshare.

Party                      %          Seats Proportional Constituency Total
Social Democrats    22.5%             17                23                40 (Change from 2012 +1)
Homeland Union        16%             12                22                34 (+1)  
Peasent and Greens Union 19%      15                10                25 (+24)
Labour Party             10.5%             8                 3                11 (-18)    
Order and Justice       8.5%              7                 4                11 (+/-0)    
Liberal Movement         9%               7                 3                10 (+/-0)
Electoral Action of Poles 5.5%           4                 3                  7 (-1)    
Others                          9.0%           0                 0                   0 (-7)
Independents                                  0                 3                   3 (+/-0)
Total                            100.0%       70              71               141

Several possible coalitions can emerge after the Election

Continueed center-left populist coalition
Either the current one between The Social Democrats, Labour Party and Order and Justice continues if it gets a majority which seems unlikely. The Social Democrats might invite The Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union in a coalition with Labour. This type of coalition ruled Lithuania between 2004 and 2008. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 60%.

Grand “rainbow” coalition
In 2004 Homeland Union and Liberal and Centre Union indicated their willingness to join a "rainbow" coalition with the Social Democrats. This time it would be social Democrats, Homeland Union and the Liberal Movement. This would be a non-populist coalition. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 30%.

Center-right bourgeois coalition
Could be formed on the basis of the Homeland Union and the Liberal Movement. Either or both the Green and Peasants Union and Order and Justice could be part of that kind of government. It could also include the Electoral Action of Poles. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 10%.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Worth to mention that AWPL also cooperates with Russian minority and is pretty strong involved into lets call it "mildly pro-Russian politics".

[aross]

Order and Justice also tends to be pro-Russian, Labour is the vehicle of a Russian-born oligarch and convicted fraudster Viktor Uspaskich but unsure if he is friendly with Putin. Anybody know about the other parties' stance towards Russia (particularly the Social Democrats)?

Fun fact: Lithuania has since 2008 had a gay propaganda law (which allegedly inspired the later Russian one) though it has been a bit of a chaos and has generally not been enforced.

[FredLindq]

Some Repetition and new predictions
Last election
Parliamentary elections were held in Lithuania on 14 October 2012, with a second round on 28 October in the constituencies where no candidate won a majority in the first round of voting.

Party                     %           Seats Proportional Constituency Total
Social Democrats    18.4%               15              24               39 (Change from 2008 +14)   
Homeland Union     15.1%               13               20              33 (-12)   
Labour Party           19.8%               17              12               29  (+19)   
Order and Justice     7.3%.                6                5               11 (-4)   
Liberal Movement     8.6%                 7                3               10 (-1)
Electoral Action of Poles 5.8%            5                 3                8 (+5)   
The Way of Courage 8.0%                 7                 0                7 (+7)   
Peasant and Greens Union 3.9%        0                 1                1 (-2)
Liberal and Centre Union    2.1%       0                 0                0 (-8)
National Resurrection Party                                                    0 (-16)
New Union (Social Liberals)                                                    0 (-1)
Others                             11.0%     0                  0                 0
Independents                                 0                   3                 3 (-1)
Total                            100.0%       70               71               141

The political landscape
The Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (Lithuanian: Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija, LSDP) is a social-democratic centre-left party. It is a member of the The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). It’s leader Algirdas Butkevičius is the current Prime Minister of Lithuania. It governs in an somewhat centre-left populist coalition with The Labour Party and Order and Justice.

The Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (Lithuanian: Tėvynės sąjunga – Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai, TS-LKD) is a centre-right christian democratic and conservative political party. It is a member of The European People's Party (EPP). After the elections in 2008 it formed a coalition government with the Liberal Movement, Liberal and Centre Union, and the Homeland Union's leader, Andrius Kubilius, became Prime Minister for a second time.

The Labour Party (Lithuanian: Darbo Partija, DP) is a centre-left populist political party. The party was founded in 2003 by the Russian-born millionaire businessman Viktor Uspaskich. It is a member of the The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party.

Party Order and Justice (Lithuanian: Partija tvarka ir teisingumas, PTT), formerly the Liberal Democratic Party (Liberalų Demokratų Partija, LDP), is a right-wing national liberal political party, though it self-identifies as 'left-of-centre'. It is a member of The Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group in the European parliament.

The Liberal Movement (Lithuanian: Liberalų Sąjūdis), formally the Liberals' Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (Lithuanian: Lietuvos Respublikos Liberalų sąjūdis) and abbreviated to LRLS, is a conservative-liberal political party in Lithuania. It is also a member of The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party. In 2008-2012 it participated in a governing coalition, along with the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats and the now defunct Liberal and Centre Union as well as the also defunct and the National Resurrection Party.

Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania (Lithuanian: Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija or LLRA; Polish: Akcja Wyborcza Polaków na Litwie or AWPL) is a political party in Lithuania. It represents the Polish minority and positions itself as Christian democratic. It is a member of The Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists (AECR).

The Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union (Lithuanian: Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga, LVŽS; formerly Lithuanian Peasant Popular Union, Lithuanian: Lietuvos valstiečių liaudininkų sąjunga, LVLS) is an Agrarian political party. In the 2014 European parliament election the party secured one seat in the parliament. After the election party announced considering joining the European People's Party (EPP) group. However, the MEP, Bronis Ropė, instead joined The Greens–European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA).

The Way of Courage (Lithuanian: Drąsos Kelias) is a populist political party in Lithuania. It was founded in 2012 and has an anti-corruption platform.
The Anti-coruption coalition of Kristupas Krivickas and Naglis Puteikis. An alliance between Lithuanian Pensioners' Party and the Lithuanian Centre Party (Lithuanian: Lietuvos Centro Partija). The later descrives itself as centrist, however in reality it is right-wing and nationalistic and conservative.
Lithuanian Freedom Union (Liberals) (Lithuanian: Lietuvos Laisvės Sąjunga (Liberalai), LLS) or simply Lithuanian Freedom Union (Lithuanian: Lietuvos Laisvės Sąjunga), is a centre-right political party in Lithuania. It is a centre-right party, with a particularly liberal and Christian democratic ideology. It was founded in, 2014 when Liberal and Centre Union (LiCS) merged with YES (TAIP).
The Lithuanian Green Party (Lithuanian: Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija, LŽP. Is a green and centrist party.
Opinion polls
Party                         Latest opinion poll %  Change since july Change since 2012         
Social Democrats      23,1%               +0,7   +4,7
Peasant and Greens Union    19,4%       +0,4   +15,5
Homeland Union           16,5%      +0,3   +1,4
The Anti-corruption coalition 8,6%      +6,4   +8,6
Labour Party        7,5%         -3,2           -12,3
Order and Justice          7,1%      -1,6   -0,2
Liberal Movement           5,5%      -3,5    -3,1
Electoral Action of Poles    4,4%      -1,0   -1,4
The Lithuanian Green Party  2,5%      -1,1   +2,5
Lithuanian Freedom Union    1,7%      +1,7   -2,1
Others                               3,7%             +1,0             -9,4
Total                               100.0%          

The Social Democrats would get 19 proportional seats, Peasant and Greens Union 15, Homeland Union 13, The Anti-corruption coalition 7, Labour Party 6, Order and Justice 6 and Liberal Movement 4.

It is very hard to predict in constituency seats. However in 2012 The Social Democrats got 24, Peasant and Greens Union 1, Homeland Union 20, Labour Party 12, Order and Justice 5 and Liberal Movement 3, Electoral Action of Poles 3 and Independents 3. I think The Social Democrats will increase their constituency seats, The Homeland Union stay the same, The Peasant and Greens Union increase dramatically and Labour Party decrease dramatically, Order and Justice  loose a few, same, Liberal Movement  will probably loose a few and Electoral Action of Poles and Independents keep theirs. So in total approximately; The Social Democrats 47, The Homeland Union 32, The Peasant and Greens Union 23, and Labour Party 10, Order and Justice 10, The Anti-corruption coalition 7, Liberal Movement 6, Electoral Action of Poles 3 and Independents 3.



Several possible coalitions can emerge after the Election

Continued center-left populist coalition
Either the current one between The Social Democrats, Labour Party and Order and Justice continues if it gets a majority which seems unlikely. The Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union  has refused a coalition with Labour and Order and Justice, so including The Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union in this kind off government would not be possible. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 20%.


Grand “rainbow” coalition
In 2004 Homeland Union and Liberal and Centre Union indicated their willingness to join a "rainbow" coalition with the Social Democrats. This time it would be social Democrats, Homeland Union and the Liberal Movement. This would be a non-populist coalition. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 40%.

Center-right bourgeois coalition
Could be formed on the basis of the Homeland Union and the Green and Peasants Union.  Liberal Movement   could be part of that kind of government. It could also include the Electoral Action of Poles. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 40%.

[IceAgeComing]

Ought to be noted that the polls have converged a bit, the Social Democrats did have a bigger lead until that last poll.  Also ought to give the usual warning that this is a eastern European country and therefore a party may claim to be something ideological when it actually ends up being just a clientalist or personality party.  Lithuania is slightly better than most though

[Beagle]

Can anyone more knowledgeable than me comment on the results? Seem to be a bit of a surprise, no?

Proportional seats
    Peasant and Greens Union       20          
   Homeland Union                19          
   Social Democrats                    13          
   Liberal Movement                8          
   Order and Justice                       5          
   Anti-Corruption Coalition            0          
   Electoral Action of Poles           5          
   Labour Party                        0    

The Anti-Corruption Coalition has 10 000 votes (0.7%) more than Law and Justice, yet no seats? Wasn't the threshold 5%?

[aross]

7% for coalitions.

[IceAgeComing]

The polls were totally wrong then most likely, not too surprising since they usually are in the region.  Although the LSDP were trending down and the Peasants (not calling them Greens because they just aren't) were moving forward, although I never thought that they'd beat out the Homeland Union.

Two district seats elected their members in the first round - two from the Electoral Action of Poles, two from Homeland Union.  The others will be decided in a fortnight, and based on my reading of the site Ive been using the LSDP and the Homeland Union are in the second round in a majority of them.

[Beagle]

Ah, ok. Apparently there will be 68 run-offs in two weeks time. The three deputies elected outright are two Poles and one Homeland Union. In the run-off there will be 42 Peasant and Greens Union candidates, 41 Homeland Union - Lithuanian Christian Democrats, 21 Social Democrat, 11 Liberal, 3 Order and Justice, 2 Labour Party, 4 Independents and 1 each for "Lithuania list", The Anti-corruption Coalition, the Liberal and Center Union and a few others.

Vilnius and Kaunas will have loads of Homeland Union/Peasant and Greens run-offs, which seems to me to be more in line with the historical performance of the center-right in major Eastern European cities.

[IceAgeComing]

I was just going to edit that, my phone messed up the site I was using so the LSDP seemed to have gotten into more second rounds than they actually did.

[IceAgeComing]

Fun fact I've just noticed; the Liberal Movement had declined in the polls over a corruption scandal and there was some talk of them not making the threshold - they've actually gone up in the list vote and will probably gain seats when they are all in after the second round.

Homeland Union just taken the list vote lead by 23 votes - only means that they take one seat from the Peasants, I just thought that it might be of interest.

[reciprocity]

Those results are a surprise. The Polls were definitely off. I wonder what the political changes were that saw the Agrarians do so well?

[IceAgeComing]

seems to have been a "this party with 1 MP hasn't had a chance to be corrupt yet, lets vote for them!!" vote more than anything else; corruption (both within the government and within the Liberals) was a theme during the campaign.

They are both a Baltic Green party and an Eastern European Agrarian Party; so you can guarantee that they'll probably be incredibly corrupt in office

[FredLindq]

Result from the first round
Party                        Proportional % Seats Constituency First round  Leading second round
Homeland Union (TS-LKD)    21,7% (+6,6) 20                      1      21
Peasant and Greens Union (LVZS) 21,5 (+17,6) 19                 0      21
Social Democrats (LSDP)    14,4% (-4,0)  13                 0                             10
Liberal Movement (LRLS)           9,0% (+0,4)   8                 0      4
Electoral Action of Poles (LLRA) 5,5% (-0,3) 5                 2                               1
Order and Justice (PTT)   5,3% (-2,0) 5                    0        4
The Anti-corruption coalition (APKK) 6,1% (+6,1) 0                 0        1
Labour Party (DP)    4,7%  (-15,1) 0                                            0                                       3
Lithuanian Freedom Union (LLS) 2,1% (-1,7) 0                  0         0
The Lithuanian Green Party (LZP)  1,9% (+1,9) 0                 0       0
The Way of Courage (DK)     0,3 (-7,7) 0                    0                             0
Independents                        1       1
Others                              3,3% (-2,4)                                              0                               1
Total                               100.0%   70                    4       66

Projection
Homeland Union (TS-LKD)    42
Peasant and Greens Union (LVZS) 40
Social Democrats (LSDP)   23
Liberal Movement (LRLS)           12
Electoral Action of Poles (LLRA) 8
Order and Justice (PTT)   9
Labour Party (DP)    3
Independents     2
The Anti-corruption coalition (APKK) 1
Others      1      

Possible coalitions can emerge after the Election

Center-right bourgeois coalition
Could be formed on the basis of the Homeland Union and the Green and Peasants Union.  Liberal Movement   could be part of that kind of government. It could also include the Electoral Action of Poles. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 70%.

Grand “rainbow” coalition
In 2004 Homeland Union and Liberal and Centre Union indicated their willingness to join a "rainbow" coalition with the Social Democrats. This time it would be social Democrats, Homeland Union and the Liberal Movement. This would be a non-populist coalition. I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 20%.

Center-left coalition
The Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union and the Social Democrats could form some kind off centre-left alternative however hey need at least another coalition partner that can not be Order and Justice or  Labour Party since  The Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union has refused to cooperate with them.  I would put the probability of this kind of coalition is around 10%.

[IceAgeComing]

Don't see how any coalition involving the Peasants and Greens is at all centre-left...

[Beagle]

Second round was today. The Peasant-Greens seem to be the clear winners. The incumbent PM (Social Democrat) lost his constituency, but will get in on the list.

If the Bulgarian media are reporting the results correctly, the Sejmas will look something like this:

Peasant and Greens Union  56
Homeland Union 30 (-3 compared to 2012)
Social Democrats 17 (-21)
Liberal Movement 14 (+4)
Electoral Action of Poles 8 (-)
Order and Justice * 8 (-3)
Independents 3
Labour Party 2


It's not 100% correct as it doesn't add up to 141, but it's not like there's much info available in the languages I understand.

[Hash]

The Lithuanian electoral commission has a nifty map (http://dc1.maps.lt/rinkimai2016/rezultatai_II_turas/) and also results on its website, and it appears as if we're only missing 2-3 precincts out of 1900 or so.

The results of the runoff are:
Peasants/Greens 35 (40 contested)
TS-LKD 10 (42)
LSDP 4 (21)
LRLS 6 (12)
TT 3 (4)
Poles 1 (2)
Indies 4 (5)
DP 2 (5)
Greens 1 (1)
'Lithuania List' 1 (1)
Anti-corruption thing 1 (1)

For a total of:
Peasants/Greens 54
TS-LKD 31
LSDP 17
LRLS 14
TT 8
Poles 8
Indies 4
DP 2
Greens 1
'Lithuania List' 1
Anti-corruption thing 1

Impressive result for the Peasants/Greens, which just goes to show how they're (for now) an uncontroversial bunch for which a bunch of people can vote for without feeling dirty, which isn't the case with the tried, tested and failed other parties. We will all be shocked to learn that turnout was a lowly 37.9%.

[IceAgeComing]

Going to stick my neck out and make a bold prediction: in 2020 or whenever the next election is the Peasants and Greens will be in a very similar situation to that of the Labour party; at best Order and Justice.