Michigan -- likely troubles for Republican Representatives?

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-clinton-michigan-election-227176?utm_source=huffingtonpost.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange


...........................

Michigan Congressional districts are heavily gerrymandered to the benefit of Republicans in the recent decade. In 2011 the state legislature quickly re-apportioned districts so that such medium-to-large cities as Lansing, East Lansing, Grand Rapids,  Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek were separated and their heavily-Democratic votes would be diluted with rural votes. Republicans would get nothing but slightly-R districts west of the US-23/I-75 corridor.

Donald Trump is doing catastrophically badly in western Michigan... I wonder how many Congressional seats he can take down with him?  R+3 districts can go to Democrats in a wave election.

[heatcharger]

Wouldn't surprise me if MI-01, MI-06, and MI-07 turned blue. I'd laugh to no end if Amash in MI-03 somehow lost.

[Heisenberg]

Is MI-10 (open seat, only R+5) in play too?

[Nym90]

Fred Upton in the 6th district is one to keep an eye on, though he has cultivated a moderate image.

[Kevin]

I'd imgaine Dave Trott and Mike Bishop would have problems too (If the Democrats have fielded stronger oppenents.

I think MI-01 will be ok as Trump should do very well in Northern MI/on the UP. Same for many parts of MI-10 as well. Ditto for MI-07.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Fred Upton's seat though.

[windjammer]

Is MI-10 (open seat, only R+5) in play too?

I don't think so.

If I would rank the competitive seats in term of likelihood of party switch:
1) MI-01: open seat, democrats have a good candidate and overperform downballot, republicans have a terrible candidate.
2) MI-07: Tim Walberg is the incumbent, he lost in 2008 and the dem candidate seems good.
3) MI-08
4) MI-06: Upton's district, has a moderate image but swing district.

I think democrats will pick up 1 seat in the end. Picking a 2nd seat is a possibility too but not particularly likely.

[Illiniwek]

Fred Upton is safe you guys. Don't worry about him.

If Justin Amash lost, it would only be temporary. The district would swing back in two years and he would definitely at least run in the primary.

[Heisenberg]

Is MI-10 (open seat, only R+5) in play too?

I don't think so.

If I would rank the competitive seats in term of likelihood of party switch:
1) MI-01: open seat, democrats have a good candidate and overperform downballot, republicans have a terrible candidate.
2) MI-07: Tim Walberg is the incumbent, he lost in 2008 and the dem candidate seems good.
3) MI-08
4) MI-06: Upton's district, has a moderate image but swing district.

I think democrats will pick up 1 seat in the end. Picking a 2nd seat is a possibility too but not particularly likely.

Good analysis. I don't like most Freedom Caucus style candidates, but I really like Bergman (a decorated 3 star Marines General) as a person so I hope he wins. If I HAD to sacrifice a Michigan seat it would be the 10th, pretty upset that the extreme carpetbagging Mitchell won his primary. At least he's not as bad as Mooney, since at least he carpetbagged across the same state.

[windjammer]

Is MI-10 (open seat, only R+5) in play too?

I don't think so.

If I would rank the competitive seats in term of likelihood of party switch:
1) MI-01: open seat, democrats have a good candidate and overperform downballot, republicans have a terrible candidate.
2) MI-07: Tim Walberg is the incumbent, he lost in 2008 and the dem candidate seems good.
3) MI-08
4) MI-06: Upton's district, has a moderate image but swing district.

I think democrats will pick up 1 seat in the end. Picking a 2nd seat is a possibility too but not particularly likely.

Good analysis. I don't like most Freedom Caucus style candidates, but I really like Bergman (a decorated 3 star Marines General) as a person so I hope he wins. If I HAD to sacrifice a Michigan seat it would be the 10th, pretty upset that the extreme carpetbagging Mitchell won his primary. At least he's not as bad as Mooney, since at least he carpetbagged across the same state.

Apparently, Bergman is likely to join the Freedom Caucus for the record.

[Xing]

I can't see Democrats picking up more than MI-01 and MI-07.

[136or142]

Lon Johnson in the open Michigan 1st and State Representative Gretchen Driskell are the Democrats most likely to win in Michigan.

[Bojack Horseman]

Fred Upton in the 6th district is one to keep an eye on, though he has cultivated a moderate image.

Hate to say it, but it would take a massive, historic landslide to get rid of Fred Upton. He's ridiculously entrenched, winning with 61% and 59% in 2006 and 2008 respectively.

[hopper]

Is Moolenar vunerable in MI-04? His district is R+4.

[Maxwell]

Moolenar doesn't even have a Democrat opponent.

[hopper]

MI-7 and MI-8 I would be worried and MI-11 if it got really bad. Not worried too much about MI-6(not yet) or MI-10.