Let's predict the margin: Alaska
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Author Topic: Let's predict the margin: Alaska  (Read 578 times)
Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
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« on: August 19, 2016, 01:36:11 PM »
Alaska:

Trump 49%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 11%
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tinman64
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2016, 01:54:00 PM »

This looks good. I'll go with R +9.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2016, 02:04:52 PM »
Trump wins 50-42.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2016, 02:10:08 PM »
Trump: 46%
Clinton: 41%
Other: 13%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2016, 02:45:41 PM »
Trump: 52%
Clinton: 36%
Other: 12%
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2016, 02:53:43 PM »

Can't think of a single reason Trump would do better than Romney.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2016, 03:31:59 PM »
Trump 52%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 9%
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heatcharger
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2016, 03:45:03 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 19, 2016, 03:29:47 PM
Quote from: heatcharger on August 19, 2016, 02:53:43 PM

Can't think of a single reason Trump would do better than Romney.

This is assuming a close/competitive race nationwide, which is a bold prediction right now. Clinton is also a much worse fit for AK than Obama. A Trump vs. Sanders race in the state would have been very interesting, though. 

Clinton being a worse fit than Obama doesn't mean Trump will do better than Romney, especially with Johnson+Stein. The problem with your prediction is you think 100% of Romney voters and a few Obama voters will vote for Trump. Highly implausible imo.
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2016, 04:05:38 PM »
Clinton +1.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2016, 04:27:39 PM »
Trump: 49
Clinton: 43
Other: 8
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Crumpets
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2016, 05:43:46 PM »
Trump by 11.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2016, 05:52:54 PM »
Alaska is basically a black hole of polling, except for that one minor league poll back in January, so we're all basically blindfolded and shooting darts at the board hoping we hit a triple or double twenty.

We all talk about how candidate X or Y are poor fits for various states, but in this case both candidates are extremely poor fits in a state well known to be ornery and support 3rd party candidates for a wide variety of reasons....
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LLR
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2016, 05:57:11 PM »
Trump 43
Clinton 35
Johnson 18
Other 4
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LLR
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2016, 06:27:51 PM »
Oh, also, ElectionsGuy has a series of threads devoted to this exact topic, kindly don't turn this into a recurring thing.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2016, 06:33:10 PM »
I don't think any of us can really be sure what's going on in Alaska right now. Neither Hillary nor Trump seem like a great fit for the state, and while it might be trending Democratic, it's also very quirky and hard to predict. Not to mention, we don't have any polls.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2016, 06:34:30 PM »
Quote from: LLR on August 19, 2016, 06:27:51 PM
Oh, also, ElectionsGuy has a series of threads devoted to this exact topic, kindly don't turn this into a recurring thing.

Link(s)?

Not all of us have been following these.... Wink
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2016, 06:42:19 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on August 19, 2016, 06:34:30 PM
Quote from: LLR on August 19, 2016, 06:27:51 PM
Oh, also, ElectionsGuy has a series of threads devoted to this exact topic, kindly don't turn this into a recurring thing.

Link(s)?

Not all of us have been following these.... Wink

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243840.0

Links to the older ones are in the first post of that thread.
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Ricky1121
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2016, 07:12:15 PM »
Trump: 52%
Clinton: 39%
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Ronnie
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2016, 07:27:48 PM »
Clinton 47%
Trump 46%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2016, 08:20:49 PM »
Trump: 49
Clinton: 42
Johnson: 8
Other: 1
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2016, 08:54:19 PM »
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