Will Trump get below 30% in CA and NY?

[Arbitrage1980]

Romney got 37.1% in CA and 35.2% in NY.  Trump is a much weaker candidate than Romney, and even in his home state, he's trailing Hillary by 30 points.  With Johnson also in the mix, I wonder if it's possible for Trump to get below the 30% threshold. 

Interesting fact: Dole got 30.6% in NY in 1996.  In 1964, even Goldwater managed to get 40.8% in CA and 31.3% in NY.

[evergreenarbor]

Well, California was a lot less Democratic in the 1960s than it is now (California only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once between 1952 and 1988, and that was LBJ).

To answer the question: As the race currently stands, I think Trump will get ~30% in CA and ~32% in NY. If the debates go poorly for him, he could fall under 30% in both states. It's hard for me to figure out how he gets above 40% in either.

[Mr. Smith]

Romney got 37.1% in CA and 35.2% in NY.  Trump is a much weaker candidate than Romney, and even in his home state, he's trailing Hillary by 30 points.  With Johnson also in the mix, I wonder if it's possible for Trump to get below the 30% threshold. 

Interesting fact: Dole got 30.6% in NY in 1996.  In 1964, even Goldwater managed to get 40.8% in CA and 31.3% in NY.

Lotta stubborn SoCal ancestrals held out for Goldilocks, especially so since Nixon and Knowland both endorsed him...these same ancestral snoots were also the reason poor Mr. Salinger didn't get to stay in the Senate while an unqualified actor did, making that the only losing high-profile Democrat that year.


It took too damn long [seriously Carter and Dukakis totally should have won], but 1992 finally knocked the teeth out of those types on the Presidential level, thus denying trump the same opportunity.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My predictions at the moment

CA: Clinton 63 - Trump 34
NY: Clinton 64 - Trump 33

[Arbitrage1980]

Romney got 37.1% in CA and 35.2% in NY.  Trump is a much weaker candidate than Romney, and even in his home state, he's trailing Hillary by 30 points.  With Johnson also in the mix, I wonder if it's possible for Trump to get below the 30% threshold. 

Interesting fact: Dole got 30.6% in NY in 1996.  In 1964, even Goldwater managed to get 40.8% in CA and 31.3% in NY.

Lotta stubborn SoCal ancestrals held out for Goldilocks, especially so since Nixon and Knowland both endorsed him...these same ancestral snoots were also the reason poor Mr. Salinger didn't get to stay in the Senate while an unqualified actor did, making that the only losing high-profile Democrat that year.


It took too damn long [seriously Carter and Dukakis totally should have won], but 1992 finally knocked the teeth out of those types on the Presidential level, thus denying trump the same opportunity.

Yeah, I'm aware that CA was a GOP stronghold from 1952 until the 1992 re-alignment by Bill Clinton.  Orange and San Diego counties were very strong republican counties; Orange still is, having not gone to a democrat since FDR in 1936.  

Dukakis was close in CA, losing it by 3.6%.  The end of the cold war crippled the defense industry in the state, resulting in a lot of republicans moving out.  Then you had immigration and Pete Wilson's prop 187, which was the beginning of the end for the GOP in the state. As a Republican, I fantasize about how different things would be if CA was a swing state.  

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Highly doubtful unless Johnson's numbers really improve.

[dspNY]

He barely will

[BaldEagle1991]

It would be pretty bad but 30% will be his floor in both states.