How will flooding impact JBE in '19?

[BuckeyeNut]

What it says on the tin.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, the recovery is off to a good start.  There are several advantages compared to Katrina.  You have a functioning electrical grid, you have functioning water/sewer, you have gravity working for you (flood waters drained out while in New Orleans you had to pump water out from below sea level over a levee--once repaired)  In Katrina, you couldn't even return to your house for 30 days, in this flood you could get back to your house in 2-3 days.  My wife has two cousins who flooded and they've both been able to remove carpeting and cut out drywall.

FEMA is better run and locals have more experience so there's that too.

The state will be looking for Congress to provide more money that FEMA can under current law.  I guess the possible big rub with that is that Louisiana is represented by a bunch of Republicans that voted against the Hurricane Sandy relief.

While damage was widespread, the Parish most impacted was Livingston Parish, which is the whitest Parish in the state.  It was a rural David Duke Parish but has been overrun by white suburbanites moving out of Baton Rouge.  

In general the flood gives JBE an opportunity to shine while a bunch of Republicans will have to do a bunch of ideological contortioning while begging for money.

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a link to Advocate map of areas in East Baton Rouge Parish that flooded, though it doesn't indicated the severity from place to place, but generally speaking the waters were deepest along the Eastern edge of the Parish, in areas called Central in the North and Old Jefferson in the SE.

http://www.theadvocate.com/louisiana_flood_2016/article_b6aae68c-6952-11e6-9dd9-dfb229b90b79.html

Here is a precinct map Miles made of EBR for the Gov Election



While there were definitely African-American neighborhoods that also flooded, especially in the North Central part of the Parish, it's a really Republican flood, even more so when adjacent parts of Livingston and Ascension are taken into account.  Obviously as suburbia spread out from older areas (settled first for a reason) some bad choices were made.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'd be shocked if John Bel Edwards lost reelection in 2019. Likely D.

Honestly? We have 3 years until 2019, that's plenty of time for some f***ups.

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably positively if anything. Despite being an "accidental Governor" of sorts, he seems like the type to be a popular Governor in a state opposite to them politically, so I expect him to serve two terms a la Freudenthal or Bredesen.

Agreed.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't know, but, being pessimistic as always, I think JBE will have hard time getting reelected in '19 without the luck of facing the Diaper Man and with Hillary at the White House.

[jamestroll]

I don't know, but, being pessimistic as always, I think JBE will have hard time getting reelected in '19 without the luck of facing the Diaper Man and with Hillary at the White House.

I agree, way to early to judge. But I think Obama polarized the nation more than Hillary will.. and especially in the South.. we all know why.

Jon Bel Edwards will be an incumbent, hopefully decently popular.. but he obviously will not face vitter again. Keep in mind that Edwards won by a convincing margin with Obama in the white house, just a year after Landrieu got blanched.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't know, but, being pessimistic as always, I think JBE will have hard time getting reelected in '19 without the luck of facing the Diaper Man and with Hillary at the White House.

I agree, way to early to judge. But I think Obama polarized the nation more than Hillary will.. and especially in the South.. we all know why.

Jon Bel Edwards will be an incumbent, hopefully decently popular.. but he obviously will not face vitter again. Keep in mind that Edwards won by a convincing margin with Obama in the white house, just a year after Landrieu got blanched.

Well yes. That's one of things working to his advantage: elections hold off-year (like in Louisiana) are less likely to be influenced by nationwide waves.

[Maxwell]

JBE's chances in 2019 entirely depends on who he has to face - if he scares off all solid opposition and has to face a loser like John Fleming, he's probably fine.

[Miles]

A poll out this week, from the far-right Hayride no less, has JBE at 50/38 approvals.

[smoltchanov]

A poll out this week, from the far-right Hayride no less, has JBE at 50/38 approvals.

Very good numbers (especially - given the source), but that doesn't mean that Kennedy-Dardenne-Angelle-type Republican can't beat him in 2019. Duke-type - no way......

[Ebsy]

A poll out this week, from the far-right Hayride no less, has JBE at 50/38 approvals.

His approvals among older voters are fantastic.

[publicunofficial]

A poll out this week, from the far-right Hayride no less, has JBE at 50/38 approvals.

His approvals among older voters are fantastic.

Olds are more likely to remember that conservative Democrats DO exist.

[smoltchanov]

A poll out this week, from the far-right Hayride no less, has JBE at 50/38 approvals.

His approvals among older voters are fantastic.

Olds are more likely to remember that conservative Democrats DO exist.

In Louisiana they DO exist right now (in Legislature). Though their number will be substantially diminished in 2019 - they will exist even after that....

[RINO Tom]

A poll out this week, from the far-right Hayride no less, has JBE at 50/38 approvals.

His approvals among older voters are fantastic.

Olds are more likely to remember that conservative Democrats DO exist.

Obviously it gets less prevalent with each passing cycle, but I remember in 2000, most of Gore's "senior" advantage actually came from the South; Yellow Dogs hadn't died off yet!