Counties to watch in the 7-7:30 PM states
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  Counties to watch in the 7-7:30 PM states
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Author Topic: Counties to watch in the 7-7:30 PM states  (Read 575 times)
Thomas D
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« on: August 20, 2016, 01:44:28 PM »

It might be early for this, but what counties are worth keeping an eye on in the states whose polls close early in the night?
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2016, 01:48:44 PM »

Vigo, Indiana is the ultimate bellwether county in the country, though that's more electoral trivia than anything else. I'd say to watch the counties surrounding Lake in Northwestern Indiana, since they could show whether or not Trump has made inroads with any working class voters.

Virginia, Georgia, and South Carolina are unfortunately quite slow to count their votes, so we might not get much in the way of results there before 7:30. If we do get anything, watch for the margin in Fairfax, and look at some of the Atlanta suburb/exurb counties like Henry.

Parts of Florida might start counting their votes during this hour, though, so I'd say any results from South Florida, as well as Pinellas and Hillsborough are worth watching.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2016, 01:51:13 PM »

Indiana: Vigo County (bellwether county), Delaware County
Virginia: Loudoun County, Virginia Beach, Henrico County
South Carolina: Hmmm... maybe Oconee County (the margin)
Georgia: Cobb County, Gwinnett County, maybe Cherokee County (the margin)

Ohio: Lake County, Montgomery County, Hamilton County, Wood County
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2016, 01:56:19 PM »

Indiana: Vigo County (bellwether county), Delaware County
Virginia: Loudoun County, Virginia Beach, Henrico County
South Carolina: Hmmm... maybe Oconee County (the margin)
Georgia: Cobb County, Gwinnett County, maybe Cherokee County (the margin)

Ohio: Lake County, Montgomery County, Hamilton County, Wood County

Cobb and Gwinnett counties are GOP strongholds; they went for Reagan over homeboy Carter in 1980 and have not gone to a democrat since Carter 1976. If one of them goes for Hillary, that is a sure sign that this is going to be a bloodbath.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2016, 01:57:12 PM »

Vigo, Indiana is the ultimate bellwether county in the country, though that's more electoral trivia than anything else. I'd say to watch the counties surrounding Lake in Northwestern Indiana, since they could show whether or not Trump has made inroads with any working class voters.

Virginia, Georgia, and South Carolina are unfortunately quite slow to count their votes, so we might not get much in the way of results there before 7:30. If we do get anything, watch for the margin in Fairfax, and look at some of the Atlanta suburb/exurb counties like Henry.

Parts of Florida might start counting their votes during this hour, though, so I'd say any results from South Florida, as well as Pinellas and Hillsborough are worth watching.

Northern Virginia doesn't come in at all at the start, and the democratic precincts don't come in until the very end. (Remember how Romney actually led in Prince William for a couple hours?)
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Thomas D
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2016, 08:05:08 AM »

Bumped because we're 17 days out.  Smiley
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2016, 08:08:18 AM »

Really just watch margins in the south Georgia and rural Indiana counties.  If they are not upwards of 30 points then Trump is under preforming. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2016, 08:10:42 AM »

Counties ?

I can already tell you after the results of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location how this election will end up ... Tongue
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2016, 09:10:27 AM »

Florida  comes in early on east coast but they can't call it before 8. I'd say watch Dade to see the margin. If Clinton is ahead in Duval or Sarasota it spells trouble for Trump right away.
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