Which Midwestern state is Hillary most likely to lose?
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  Which Midwestern state is Hillary most likely to lose?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which Midwestern state from 2012 is Hillary most likely to lose?
#1
Minnesota (1972)		  
#2
Wisconsin (1984)		  
#3
Michigan (1988)		  
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Total Voters: 90

Author Topic: Which Midwestern state is Hillary most likely to lose?  (Read 2039 times)
Senator-elect Spark
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« on: August 20, 2016, 02:48:44 PM »
I also put in parenthesis the last time that these particular state voted Republican. Excluding Iowa since it is a battleground state and went R in 2004.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2016, 02:50:03 PM »
Minnesota(sane, normal)
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2016, 02:53:43 PM »
Minnesota = lol.
Wisconsin = possible if Trump dropped out and Pence headlined the ticket.
Michigan = possibly more likely than PA. Which is not very, but the easiest to crack of these three.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2016, 02:55:02 PM »
For lack of recent polling, only -- Minnesota.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2016, 03:06:32 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 20, 2016, 02:55:48 PM
Wisconsin, followed closely by Michigan.

Lol@Minnesota.

To be fair, Bush 2000, McCain, and Romney did better in Minnesota than in Michigan. Bush 2004 did barely better in Michigan (margin loss to Kerry was 3.42% vs 3.48% in Minnesota).

Michigan is out of GOP grasp due to not just Detroit but Dearborn (large Arab population), affluent Oakland County, and blue-collar Macomb County (home of Reagan democrats) shifting to the Dems.

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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2016, 03:11:22 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2016, 03:13:22 PM by Northern Assembly Candidate Spark498 »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 20, 2016, 03:06:32 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 20, 2016, 02:55:48 PM
Wisconsin, followed closely by Michigan.

Lol@Minnesota.

To be fair, Bush 2000, McCain, and Romney did better in Minnesota than in Michigan. Bush 2004 did barely better in Michigan (margin loss to Kerry was 3.42% vs 3.48% in Minnesota).

Michigan is out of GOP grasp due to not just Detroit but Dearborn (large Arab population), affluent Oakland County, and blue-collar Macomb County (home of Reagan democrats) shifting to the Dems.



Trump can do better than all three in Detroit and Macomb county, probably do worse in Oakland county though because of his poor performance with the highly educated.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2016, 03:15:09 PM »
Michigan, all though all three are Likely D at least
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2016, 03:15:42 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 20, 2016, 03:06:32 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 20, 2016, 02:55:48 PM
Wisconsin, followed closely by Michigan.

Lol@Minnesota.

To be fair, Bush 2000, McCain, and Romney did better in Minnesota than in Michigan. Bush 2004 did barely better in Michigan (margin loss to Kerry was 3.42% vs 3.48% in Minnesota).

Michigan is out of GOP grasp due to not just Detroit but Dearborn (large Arab population), affluent Oakland County, and blue-collar Macomb County (home of Reagan democrats) shifting to the Dems.

The neocons and Romney were unusually suited to Minnesota.  Trump is the worst possible Republican fit for the Gopher State.  OTOH, Trump is an unusually good fit for Michigan - at least the white population of Michigan.

Meanwhile, if Mike Pence were the candidate, he'd be doing as well in Wisconsin as Trump is doing in Iowa.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2016, 03:38:08 PM »
Where is none of the above? These are all near lock states for Clinton.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2016, 07:47:27 PM »
Michigan. It would be Wisconsin in a normal year.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2016, 08:50:28 PM »
Nebraska.

Okay, of those three, Michigan, but all are Likely D, bordering on Safe D.
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2016, 10:17:18 PM »
Michigan. But this is like asking whether she's most likely to lose Connecticut, Maryland, or Hawaii.
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2016, 10:20:39 PM »
Of the three choices, probably none. But Sconny is going to have the smallest margin.
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Smash255
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2016, 10:24:52 PM »
All three are the same chance  0
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2016, 10:25:37 PM »
trump ain't winnin any of these, but Wisconsin is probably the closest.

lol Michigan.
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2016, 11:26:40 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on August 20, 2016, 10:25:37 PM
trump ain't winnin any of these, but Wisconsin is probably the closest.

lol Michigan.

Why would Wisconsin vote for Trump?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2016, 11:27:49 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on August 20, 2016, 11:26:40 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on August 20, 2016, 10:25:37 PM
trump ain't winnin any of these, but Wisconsin is probably the closest.

lol Michigan.

Why would Wisconsin vote for Trump?

why would Michigan vote for Trump?

It is an equally ridiculous question.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2016, 11:33:57 PM »
D) None of the above.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2016, 12:59:44 AM »
I was listening to 950 AM last week when Ronna Romney said with a straight face that Donald Trump would carry Michigan. Because NAFTA.

Back in reality, Hillary's going to win Michigan by probably near Obama 2008 margins.
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2016, 04:22:33 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on August 20, 2016, 11:27:49 PM
Quote from: Figueira on August 20, 2016, 11:26:40 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on August 20, 2016, 10:25:37 PM
trump ain't winnin any of these, but Wisconsin is probably the closest.

lol Michigan.

Why would Wisconsin vote for Trump?

why would Michigan vote for Trump?

It is an equally ridiculous question.

Wisconsin has white, drunken, moron Packers fans.  i.e. Trump's bread and butter.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2016, 05:44:10 AM »
Michigan--though none of them are close to probable.  Iowa is another story however.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2016, 09:54:18 AM »
With Trump it's definitely Michigan but would be Wisconsin if it had been anyone else running against Hillary. It's very unlikely Trump would win any obviously, but Michigan does at least have some set of persuadable voters he appeals to while not containing the Milwaukee metro area.
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LLR
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2016, 09:58:55 AM »
According to all 3 of 538's models, Minnesota
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2016, 12:38:21 PM »
Quote from: LLR on August 21, 2016, 09:58:55 AM
According to all 3 of 538's models, Minnesota

Only because there hasn't been an MN poll in ages, so there's probably more uncertainty in the model.
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Badger
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2016, 02:38:18 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 21, 2016, 12:38:21 PM
Quote from: LLR on August 21, 2016, 09:58:55 AM
According to all 3 of 538's models, Minnesota

Only because there hasn't been an MN poll in ages, so there's probably more uncertainty in the model.

Yeah, the closet of these three states he's bound to lose in PROBABLY Minnesota.
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