If Johnson Implodes...

[OwlRhetoric]

So far Johnson numbers are holding up high, 5-10%, but let's say half or more flakes off before the General Election. Where does it go? Have there been any polls checking second preferences for Johnson supporters? Just curious.

[Gass3268]

So far Johnson numbers are holding up high, 5-10%, but let's say half or more flakes off before the General Election. Where does it go? Have there been any polls checking second preferences for Johnson supporters? Just curious.

Most won't vote, that's why his numbers drop in a lot of Likely Voter screens.

[ElectionsGuy]

It'll probably split but maybe Clinton a little bit more. A lot of people may call this BS but I think Republicans, especially people who are more likely to support Trump than any other Republican, have more of an opposition to libertarianism and Gary Johnson than most Democrats do. More Republicans are  like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.

[OwlRhetoric]

It'll probably split but maybe Clinton a little bit more. A lot of people may call this BS but I think Republicans, especially people who are more likely to support Trump than any other Republican, have more of an opposition to libertarianism and Gary Johnson than most Democrats do. More Republicans are  like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.

Yeah, my gut says this may be the case, and it might split almost equally. Plus a smaller fragment bouncing to another third party candidate or not voting at all. It feels like he draws a healthy sampling from both Trump and Clinton, but I don't know if that's ever been proven in any poll.

[Enduro]

I don't think he will, but if he did, it's likely that his voters will go to whoever is running for the Constitution Party. Maybe Jill Stein will get a bump, but it's unlikely she'll get many from Johnson. A lot of people won't vote, or will write in someone.

[NOVA Green]

Johnson does appear to be polling particularly well among voters under 35, that both loathe Trump and dislike Clinton....

Considering the Millennial demographic we're talking about, I would imagine that we would see an increase number of abstentions, combined with increased support for Stein (People that want to vote but can't bring themselves to support Clinton nor Trump), but ultimately I would think that Clinton would have an edge among those voters that end up putting a clothespin to their nose and voting for a major party candidate.

[Vosem]

Hasn't polling shown that, while many won't vote, significantly more choose Clinton than Trump? My second choice (as I think I've stated many times) is Clinton, not Trump.

More Republicans are  like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.

I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy -- there tends to be a spectrum. Neither group is a majority, although the former is a good deal larger.

[Nyvin]

Hasn't polling shown that, while many won't vote, significantly more choose Clinton than Trump? My second choice (as I think I've stated many times) is Clinton, not Trump.

More Republicans are  like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.

I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy -- there tends to be a spectrum. Neither group is a majority, although the former is a good deal larger.

If the Republican Primary tells us anything...the former is about ~75% of the Republican voter base.

[Badger]

When, people. When.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump would benefit the most, but probably no more than 1% net nationwide.

[Vosem]

Hasn't polling shown that, while many won't vote, significantly more choose Clinton than Trump? My second choice (as I think I've stated many times) is Clinton, not Trump.

More Republicans are  like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.

I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy -- there tends to be a spectrum. Neither group is a majority, although the former is a good deal larger.

If the Republican Primary tells us anything...the former is about ~75% of the Republican voter base.

Nah. It tells us that the former is approximately 35% of the party. It tells us there's another faction (the types that were all for Carson in November, and supported Cruz in Iowa and through most of the primaries) that's around 25%, and that the RINO Tom/Vosem vote is maybe another 25% (keeping in mind that it was never united throughout the primary season). Another 15% are capable of swinging or don't seem to clearly fit into those three groups.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the three-way divide is a product of the 2016 presidential primary and was never clearly exhibited before, nor has it clearly shown itself in many congressional primaries (the Ellmers/Brannon/Holding race excepted, I guess). Considering the first group is rapidly shrinking demographically and doesn't have too many prominent politicians who adhere to it, I don't know how useful this sort of analysis is for the future.

When, people. When.

Unless a very prominent mistake is made (doubtful), or Trump surges into a near-tie (possible), I really doubt there'll be much deflation at all before Election Day, and even then I don't think it'll approach the levels seen by Nader 2000 in a close race (who fell from 5-7% to 3%).