Will Johnson win any counties?
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Author Topic: Will Johnson win any counties?  (Read 690 times)
AGA
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« on: August 20, 2016, 09:30:05 PM »
Will Johnson win any counties? If so, which ones? If not, which ones will he do best in?
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2016, 09:31:30 PM »
Quote from: Chrome on August 20, 2016, 09:30:05 PM
Will Johnson win any counties? If so, which ones? If not, which ones will he do best in?

Sure he will. Probably one county in UT or AK, not sure which one in particular though.
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MisterElection2001
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2016, 09:40:06 PM »
If he gets into the debates, he will for sure win at least one county in Montana or Alaska.
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2016, 09:41:34 PM »
No and he won't make it to the debates.
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Badger
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2016, 10:55:07 PM »
No. He probably won't even get second in any.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2016, 11:01:23 PM »
Quote from: Badger on August 20, 2016, 10:55:07 PM
No. He probably won't even get second in any.

It's possible if it's sufficiently Republican enough and small enough. President Obama only beat Gary Johnson by four votes (5-1) in King County, Texas in 2012 (I think it was literally President Obama's worst county in the country both times). If Hillary doesn't improve on that, literally one family could put him in second.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2016, 11:05:16 PM »
^ Loving County is also a good option. Its the least populous county, went for Perot in 1992 and borders New Mexico (which could feasibly boost Johnson there).
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Figueira
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2016, 11:27:36 PM »
Quote from: Libertarian_Leo on August 20, 2016, 09:40:06 PM
If he gets into the debates, he will for sure win at least one county in Montana or Alaska.

I think I can say with absolute certainty that Johnson will win zero counties in Alaska. Wink
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2016, 11:29:15 PM »
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2016, 11:30:58 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on August 20, 2016, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Libertarian_Leo on August 20, 2016, 09:40:06 PM
If he gets into the debates, he will for sure win at least one county in Montana or Alaska.

I think I can say with absolute certainty that Johnson will win zero counties in Alaska. Wink

Same with Louisiana.

I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson won a county. I'd say there's a 50/50 chance of him winning at least one somewhere. My guess would be in Utah, followed by Montana, Alaska (county equivalent), and Colorado. New Mexico is a possibility as well.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2016, 11:32:15 PM »
Quote from: Badger on August 20, 2016, 10:55:07 PM
No. He probably won't even get second in any.

Oh, I'm sure Johnson has a shot to beat Clinton in some tiny plains counties, in Mormonville, or beat Trump in Shannon County SD and co.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2016, 11:32:52 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on August 20, 2016, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Libertarian_Leo on August 20, 2016, 09:40:06 PM
If he gets into the debates, he will for sure win at least one county in Montana or Alaska.

I think I can say with absolute certainty that Johnson will win zero counties in Alaska. Wink

Good catch. Perhaps "boroughs?"
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Crumpets
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 12:19:30 AM »

Quote from: Badger on August 20, 2016, 10:55:07 PM
No. He probably won't even get second in any.
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 04:24:07 AM »
A few in UT, WY, maybe AK, CO.
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 04:28:55 AM »
It would be very difficult. Even in what was a genuine three-way race (1992), Perot only carried a few.
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MisterElection2001
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 10:10:24 AM »
Quote from: Figueira on August 20, 2016, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Libertarian_Leo on August 20, 2016, 09:40:06 PM
If he gets into the debates, he will for sure win at least one county in Montana or Alaska.

I think I can say with absolute certainty that Johnson will win zero counties in Alaska. Wink
Oh, right... He will win at least one "borough or census area" in Alaska if he's in the debates.
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Vosem
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2016, 10:31:15 AM »
He probably has a decent chance at carrying some rural county in UT if he's >20% there. Same with some random borough in AK.

As for coming in second somewhere without making it into the debates, excluding the random uninhabited Texas Panhandle counties, there's another county equivalent he has a very good chance at making second in -- Washington, DC.
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2016, 10:44:00 AM »
No, though I think he's more likely than not to win second in some. He might also get second in a few independent cities, like Washington DC, Baltimore and Petersburg, VA.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2016, 01:04:11 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on August 21, 2016, 12:37:36 PM
I need to see some post-convention, post-McMullin Utah polling to say.

PPP has one in the works.
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Badger
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2016, 01:53:20 PM »
Quote from: Miles on August 20, 2016, 11:05:16 PM
^ Loving County is also a good option. Its the least populous county, went for Perot in 1992 and borders New Mexico (which could feasibly boost Johnson there).

Excellent points by you and political lefty. I guess he might at least finish second in some uber loe-turnout county where one large extended family decided mostly en masse to flip to Johnson. I guess it MIGHTeven be possible in some low population Utah county like Rich or Piute, but doubt it.
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skoods
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2016, 01:57:37 PM »
Quote from: Miles on August 20, 2016, 11:05:16 PM
^ Loving County is also a good option. Its the least populous county, went for Perot in 1992 and borders New Mexico (which could feasibly boost Johnson there).

Quote from: politicallefty on August 20, 2016, 11:01:23 PM
Quote from: Badger on August 20, 2016, 10:55:07 PM
No. He probably won't even get second in any.

It's possible if it's sufficiently Republican enough and small enough. President Obama only beat Gary Johnson by four votes (5-1) in King County, Texas in 2012 (I think it was literally President Obama's worst county in the country both times). If Hillary doesn't improve on that, literally one family could put him in second.

I'll take "places I'd never want to live" for $200, Alex.

Btw, there were like...20 people voting in Loving County in 2012 and about 80 in King.
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Badger
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2016, 02:35:36 PM »
Quote from: skoods on August 21, 2016, 01:57:37 PM
Quote from: Miles on August 20, 2016, 11:05:16 PM
^ Loving County is also a good option. Its the least populous county, went for Perot in 1992 and borders New Mexico (which could feasibly boost Johnson there).

Quote from: politicallefty on August 20, 2016, 11:01:23 PM
Quote from: Badger on August 20, 2016, 10:55:07 PM
No. He probably won't even get second in any.

It's possible if it's sufficiently Republican enough and small enough. President Obama only beat Gary Johnson by four votes (5-1) in King County, Texas in 2012 (I think it was literally President Obama's worst county in the country both times). If Hillary doesn't improve on that, literally one family could put him in second.

I'll take "places I'd never want to live" for $200, Alex.

Btw, there were like...20 people voting in Loving County in 2012 and about 80 in King.

Hehehe. Good one. Grin
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