Trump is one of the reasons why I didn't support Obama in the '08
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  Trump is one of the reasons why I didn't support Obama in the '08
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Author Topic: Trump is one of the reasons why I didn't support Obama in the '08  (Read 2938 times)
Beet
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« on: August 20, 2016, 11:32:43 PM »

primaries. I knew that it would exacerbate racial polarization. When you have Democrats nominating a black man when Democrats are already getting 90% of the black vote, and then have him be the face of the party for 8 years, it's playing with fire. This is not an attack on Obama. It's not his fault he's black, obviously. It's just a commentary on political dynamics. During the Obama years you had increasing racial polarization by party, and now it's opened up the door for someone like Trump, who has the backing and uses memes from racist groups that were once considered fringe. Prior to Obama, the GOP was diversifying... you had them start to run candidates like Michael Steele in 2006, who was a relatively high-profile candidate; and from the statistics, the share of black delegates to the GOP convention peaked in 2004.

My ideal would have been for the first minority president, particularly a black, to be a Republican. With a black as the face of conservatism for four to eight years, the racists would have been banished from the GOP, and race would have been removed as a polarizing factor in American politics, as much as it could have been. In a way, conservatism represents the American's Americanism, the heartland ideology, and if that could have been represented by someone black, it would have been even more transformational than just having a black president.

Basically what has happened is what I feared. And this goes for Clinton to, to a lesser extent. We've now had two nominees in a row in the Democrats, where the winner of the white vote in the primaries didn't get the nomination. The black bloc vote is a problem because, when you have 20% of the primary electorate going 90% for one candidate, any other candidate needs to win by landslide proportions just to stay competitive. So blacks have just enough pull to decide Democratic primaries, but the actual swing group in the Democratic party, whites, have less pull. The result is the Alabamization of America, or at least forces pushing in that direction.

That's why I'm going to strongly support the Sanders' calls post-primary for open primaries, rather than closed, in the future. That goes for all levels of government. We need more whites and other non party dedicates deciding our primaries. Those loosely attached to the party having more sway would be better in General Elections.
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2016, 05:14:07 AM »

Racial polarization is going to exist regardless of who the president is.  Where's the rationale in basing your vote on how some poor racists would feel seeing them elected?  Do you really not see the gaps in your logic here?
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Wells
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2016, 06:22:14 AM »

So you didn't support Obama in 2008 because he was black. And you think black voters should have less power in Democratic primaries. Okay. 
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2016, 06:24:19 AM »

So you didn't support Obama in 2008 because he was black. And you think black voters should have less power in Democratic primaries. Okay. 

It's Beet so...
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2016, 10:58:36 AM »

So you didn't support Obama in 2008 because he was black. And you think black voters should have less power in Democratic primaries. Okay. 

It's Beet so...

How does it help blacks, or any minority, for our nation's politics to be sorted so that there are two parties who differ only on race, and a 60% white majority always outvotes a 40% party composed of minorities?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2016, 11:17:51 AM »

Roll Eyes
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2016, 11:24:08 AM »

It's not his fault he's black, obviously.

wtf

This entire post was terrible, and you should feel bad for posting it.  You won't, but you should.
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2016, 11:28:24 AM »

So you didn't support Obama in 2008 because he was black. And you think black voters should have less power in Democratic primaries. Okay. 

It's Beet so...

How does it help blacks, or any minority, for our nation's politics to be sorted so that there are two parties who differ only on race, and a 60% white majority always outvotes a 40% party composed of minorities?


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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2016, 01:31:25 PM »

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Edu
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2016, 01:41:20 PM »

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White Trash
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2016, 01:59:27 PM »

He's got a point though that the Black vote is extremely monolithic and really does decide the fate of Democratic primaries. And he's also right that the Democratic party is becoming more and more the party of minorities (whether they be racial, linguistic or sexual) which makes it easier for someone like Trump to arise.
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 02:49:05 PM »

This is not an attack on Obama. It's not his fault he's black, obviously.

Of course, we ought to feel sorry for him for being born with such a severe hereditary condition.
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SATW
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 03:45:50 PM »

so, you're racist?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 04:50:10 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2016, 06:49:50 PM by L.D. Smith »

While he does have a point [if not necessarily well conveyed], it's actually better that the first black president came from this side...discredits the old "hahaha those Democrats are such liberal racists" stupidity than from the party that already over pats itself on the back for freeing the slaves.

I figure if there's gonna be racial polarization, better to have it firmly away from a base that would otherwise have kept using those tactics as a discreditor to the party in the House that got CRA '64 through.

Besides, they already have the first minority Senators and female Congressperson [but NOT the first female Senator].
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 05:00:55 PM »

What even is this?
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 05:08:53 PM »

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2016, 04:34:20 PM »

I'm not going to try to litigate the '08 dem primary popular vote quandary, because the answer to who won the popular vote in that primary is essentially, "Well, who do you want to be recognized as the popular vote winner?". But in 2016, the reason why White Voters didn't decide the nomination is because Sanders only won them by single digits. White Voters are probably something around 55% of the dem primary electorate. Among the other 45% (or so) of the electorate, Clinton won something around 60-65% of Latinos nationwide, 70-75% of northern/western blacks, and 85-90% of Southern blacks. Simple math tells you that a landslide win among 45% of the electorate and a narrow loss among the remaining 55% of the electorate adds up to a majority among the entire electorate.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2016, 06:23:27 PM »

     Racial polarization in this country long predates President Obama. In terms of all the factors contributing to racial polarization today, his candidacy and subsequent election are barely a drop in the bucket.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2016, 06:42:35 PM »

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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2016, 01:20:59 AM »

Did Sanders actually win white voters nationwide?  Someone post the source if that's true, please.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2016, 04:09:11 PM »

Did Sanders actually win white voters nationwide?  Someone post the source if that's true, please.

These are the CNN numbers from each state's exit poll (obviously some states didn't have them):

IA: 49-46 Clinton
NH: 61-37 Sanders
NV: 49-47 Sanders
SC: 54-46 Clinton
AL: 59-38 Clinton
AR: 62-35 Clinton
GA: 58-41 Clinton
MA: 50-49 Sanders
OK: 56-36 Sanders
TN: 57-42 Clinton
TX: 57-41 Clinton
VT: 86-13 Sanders
VA: 57-42 Clinton
MI: 56-42 Sanders
MS: 68-31 Clinton
FL: 53-43 Clinton
IL: 57-42 Sanders
MO: 54-45 Sanders
NC: 52-43 Sanders
OH: 53-47 Clinton
WI: 59-40 Sanders
NY: TIE
CT: 50-48 Sanders
MD: 52-42 Clinton
PA: 51-47 Clinton
IN: 59-41 Sanders
WV: 52-35 Sanders

Obviously Sanders carried the white vote in all the states he won, so adding in those states if they aren't included above, and Clinton's landslides in DC/LA were so big that she definitely carried whites there. That gives us this map (Clinton in red, Sanders in Green, Tie in blue):



(Obviously using the actual contest for NE/WA, not the beauty contest)

So in comparison to the real primary, Sanders picks up NV, MA, IL, MO, NC (!), and CT. NY, despite being Hillary's home state, is literally a 50-50 tie in the exit poll among whites. If I had to make a guess about the gray states, I'd say that Hillary carried the white vote in SD (because it is almost entirely white), DE, AZ, and NJ, while Sanders carried it in NM, CA, and KY. (Which means another three states for Sanders.) Hillary's margins throughout the South and the northeast states she still wins narrows dramatically. Someone else can do the exact math, but I imagine it adds up to a Sanders win.



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Beet
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« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2016, 01:01:47 AM »

Bump. My point was not that whites would not vote for Obama, but that having a black as the face of the party for 8 years would result in racial polarization. In retrospect, I was right. The GOP has now built a race-based majority and future elections depend solely on whites. Minorities will not need to be courted by anyone now because the GOP doesn't need us. America is Alabama now.
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bagelman
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« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2016, 02:06:27 AM »

Hillary would've lost in 2012
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Person Man
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« Reply #23 on: November 15, 2016, 07:42:32 AM »

If America is now Alabama, the BBQ better be getting good!
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2016, 08:04:48 AM »

Bump. My point was not that whites would not vote for Obama, but that having a black as the face of the party for 8 years would result in racial polarization. In retrospect, I was right. The GOP has now built a race-based majority and future elections depend solely on whites. Minorities will not need to be courted by anyone now because the GOP doesn't need us. America is Alabama now.
huh…? trump barely "won" and the minority share of the population will only keep goïng up. if anything, you should be drawing the opposite conclusion.

also cringe@ "a black"
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