Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Michigan
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Poll
Question: Rate Michigan and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 130

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Michigan  (Read 1974 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: August 21, 2016, 12:03:57 AM »
Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts

Ratings



Safe Clinton: 116
Likely Clinton: 1
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 35
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 41

Clinton: 126
Trump: 82
Toss-Up: 35

Predictions



Clinton: 161
Trump: 82

Michigan: Likely D, 54-43 Clinton. Just in case anyone wants to know, Arizona is one vote away from moving to toss-up, Florida and ME-02 are very close to moving as well.
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2016, 12:05:45 AM »
Lean D.

Clinton 51
Trump 48
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2016, 12:08:07 AM »
If Hillary's still up by the same amount in a month, I'll be ready to move it to Safe D, but it seems a bit early for that right now.

Likely D, Hillary wins 54-44.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2016, 12:14:35 AM »
Safe D

56% Clinton
40% Trump
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2016, 12:17:14 AM »
Safe D.

Clinton: 55
Trump: 41
Johnson: 3
Other: 1
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2016, 12:41:38 AM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 21, 2016, 12:08:07 AM
If Hillary's still up by the same amount in a month, I'll be ready to move it to Safe D, but it seems a bit early for that right now.

Likely D, Hillary wins 54-44.

That's basically how I see it. The state has theoretical appeal for Trump, but right now it isn't really showing. If that doesn't change, it becomes Safe D.

Clinton: 52%
Trump: 41%
Others: 7%
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tinman64
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2016, 01:14:15 AM »
Likely D.

Clinton 51
Trump 43
Others 6
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2016, 04:38:49 AM »
Likely D (almost Safe...)

Clinton: 54%
Trump: 43%
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2016, 06:14:41 AM »
Trump isn't palatable enough to whites in the Detroit suburbs (the ones who voted for George Bush and Barack Obama) and isn't wholesome enough for West Michigan voters, to win Michigan. Hyper conservatives in Livingston County and rural whites in Northern Lower Michigan and the UP should love him. Safe D.

Clinton: 56
Trump: 42
Other: 4

The state's PVI has been right around D+3 for a few cycles now. No reason to expect that to change. And county swings are remarkably easy to predict.
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dspNY
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2016, 07:27:19 AM »
Likely D

Clinton 53
Trump 42
Johnson 4
Stein 1
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2016, 10:04:39 AM »
Likely D for now. I m hoping I can believe it will be a Safe D going into Election Day. Probably will.
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 10:14:10 AM »
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windjammer
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 10:50:09 AM »
Clinton will win here between Obama2008 and Obama2012,
So a +13 margin in the end.

Safe Dem
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 12:11:42 PM »
It's safe D. No idea why people even call it a "swing" state. Trump is going to get destroyed in Detroit, Dearborn, Oakland County, and lose Macomb County as well.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 12:25:40 PM »
Quote from: dmmidmi on August 21, 2016, 06:14:41 AM
Trump isn't palatable enough to whites in the Detroit suburbs (the ones who voted for George Bush and Barack Obama) and isn't wholesome enough for West Michigan voters, to win Michigan. Hyper conservatives in Livingston County and rural whites in Northern Lower Michigan and the UP should love him. Safe D.

Clinton: 56
Trump: 42
Other: 4

The state's PVI has been right around D+3 for a few cycles now. No reason to expect that to change. And county swings are remarkably easy to predict.

As a Michigander, I agree with this for the most part. I do think the anti-crime or "straight talk" will appeal much better than expected towards the Detroit area (whites), and he obviously will soak up the vote from strong conservative and rural areas, but his down-fall will be educated low-crime suburban areas. Sub-par Grand Rapids margins, lakeside western counties, and common D strongholds will keep him down.

Not quite a 14% margin though. I will reasonably expect an 8% - 11% margin.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 01:33:05 PM »
Likely D, Clinton 53-45
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2016, 02:19:46 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 21, 2016, 12:11:42 PM
It's safe D. No idea why people even call it a "swing" state. Trump is going to get destroyed in Detroit, Dearborn, Oakland County, and lose Macomb County as well.

"Rigged" polls and those showing him close or barely winning in March/April. So people not knowing anything about polls or those who haven't followed politics before.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2016, 09:57:10 AM »
Likely D.

✓ Clinton: 55.3%
Trump: 40.7%
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2016, 10:02:03 AM »
It's about as likely D as Indiana is likely R.  In other words, borderline safe unless the race really takes a turn.

Clinton 51%
Trump 42%
Other 7%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2016, 03:50:49 PM »
Likely D.

Hillary: 54.42%
Trump: 42.09%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2016, 05:48:35 PM »
Lean D in a 50-50 race as in 1976 (Michigan would have gone to Carter except for having a Favorite Son), 2000, and 2004... strong D with a very strong Democratic nominee or a very weak R nominee.

This time Safe D. 
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RosettaStoned
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« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2016, 07:39:10 PM »
 Lean D. Clinton probably wins it by 2%.
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2016, 08:33:53 PM »
Safe D

Clinton/Kaine-51%
Trump/Pence-40%
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2016, 11:15:09 PM »
Can Trump win Michigan? Of course he can!
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2016, 11:17:42 PM »
Quote from: Plankton5165 on August 31, 2016, 11:15:09 PM
Can Trump win Michigan? Of course he can!

Will you live stream your reaction to election night? It will be really fun to watch your temper tantrum.
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