Big 3 Race Rating Changes (Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato)

[windjammer]

IL-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
WI-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic

Just a teensy bit late to the party.

(Btw, is it just me or is Cuck Political Report usually generous to Republicans in their ratings?)

They are more generous to incumbents.

[politicallefty]

Cook:
NY-25: Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic
NH-01: Toss Up to Lean D

A rather slow week. I think both of those are due to the final primary results in the nation. (Is NH really the first presidential primary and the last Congressional primary?!)

[Figueira]

Cook:
NY-25: Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic
NH-01: Toss Up to Lean D

A rather slow week. I think both of those are due to the final primary results in the nation. (Is NH really the first presidential primary and the last Congressional primary?!)

New York had its congressional primaries ages ago. The recent ones were for the legislature.

[Heisenberg]

New Sabato House rating changes:
CA-24: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
IA-03: Toss-up to Leans Republican
ME-02: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NY-03: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
UT-04: Toss-up to Leans Republican

[Heisenberg]

New Cook House rating changes:
AZ-02: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up
IA-01: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
IN-02: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NY-01: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NY-24: Toss-up to Leans Republican
WA-08: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
WI-08: Toss-up to Leans Republican

Senate:
Missouri: Leans Republican to Toss-up

[Xing]

FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up

Am I missing something about this race? I didn't think John Mica was that vulnerable.

[windjammer]

FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up

Am I missing something about this race? I didn't think John Mica was that vulnerable.

I will be honest, I'm myself very surprised he's endangered but the democrats are spending big here, so they believe they have a shot.

[publicunofficial]

FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up

Am I missing something about this race? I didn't think John Mica was that vulnerable.

His district got shifted heavily to the left, and the DCCC certainly seems to be treating it like they believe Mica could lose. Lots of ad buys.

[Heisenberg]

Rothenberg also provided rating updates.
House:
AZ-01: Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt D
CA-49: Solid Republican to Republican Favored
FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
FL-13: Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic[/color]
IA-01: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
IA-03: Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt R
MI-01: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
MI-07: Toss-up/Tilt R to Leans Republican
NJ-05: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
NY-01: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NY-19: Toss-up/Tilt R to Pure Toss-up
NY-24: Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt R
WI-08: Toss-up/Tilt R to Leans Republican

Senate:
Arizona: Leans Republican to Republican Favored
Florida: Toss-up to Leans Republican
Missouri: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
Ohio: Leans Republican to Republican Favored
Wisconsin: Toss-up/Tilt D to Leans Democratic

[politicallefty]

I missed last week, but I was going to post these. Thankfully, I have someone on the other side of the aisle that is willing to do it for me.

I was going to note how bad the Cook House ratings were, but I didn't realize FL-07 moved towards the Democratic side. Rothenberg was a mixed bag, but also moved FL-07 in a Democratic direction.

My biggest surprise was seeing Cook move MO-Sen to Toss-up (and now Rothenberg almost to that point). There's been almost no public polling that I've seen, so I'm wondering what the private polling is showing (i.e. data that is shown to nonpartisan analysts like the Big 3). For Charlie Cook to have Blunt at a Toss-up is startling to me. That tells me he is in very serious danger and something is going on in that race that we're not seeing publicly. The last public poll for MO-Sen was the Emerson poll that had Blunt down by 2 over two weeks ago, but I didn't think anyone was putting any stock into their polling. I wonder what's going on in Missouri that's causing them to seriously sour on the Republican gubernatorial and senatorial candidates.

On a side note, it's crazy to think that North Carolina and Missouri are top-tier battlegrounds for the Senate and not Florida and Ohio.

[politicallefty]

Not too much this past week, but all of these were before Friday. I'm also wondering how long before Sabato moves Missouri, as Cook and Rothenberg have already done.

Cook:
NJ-05: Lean R to Toss Up

Sabato:
FL-Sen: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
NC-Sen: Leans Republican to Toss-up

[Fusionmunster]

Not too much this past week, but all of these were before Friday. I'm also wondering how long before Sabato moves Missouri, as Cook and Rothenberg have already done.

Cook:
NJ-05: Lean R to Toss Up

Sabato:
FL-Sen: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
NC-Sen: Leans Republican to Toss-up

I want Scott Garrett out so bad, SO BAD.

[Gass3268]

I've got a gut feeling that FL will be moving back to Toss Up status pretty soon.

[Heisenberg]

Here are Sabato's new House ratings, all five towards Democrats:

CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up
KS-03: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
NJ-05: Leans Republican to Toss-up
NY-03: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
VA-05: Safe Republican to Likely Republican

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Here are Sabato's new House ratings, all five towards Democrats:

CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican

Jesus...

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are Sabato's new House ratings, all five towards Democrats:

CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican

Jesus...

Defeating Douchebag Darrell Issa would be so delicious.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Here are Sabato's new House ratings, all five towards Democrats:

CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican

Jesus...

Defeating Douchebag Darrell Issa would be so delicious.

He's in for a tough landing. The fact that he's released multiple TV ads is startling in itself. Doesn't help that he was promoted to Trump's national security advisory team the morning of Pussygate

[Gass3268]

Here are Sabato's new House ratings, all five towards Democrats:

CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up
KS-03: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
NJ-05: Leans Republican to Toss-up
NY-03: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
VA-05: Safe Republican to Likely Republican

They released a correction that VA-05 should be shifted to Lean R.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Cook Political Report moves Darrell Issa's 49th district to 'Tossup'


http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-updates-rep-darrell-issa-reelection-bid-named-1476485337-htmlstory.html

[politicallefty]

Cook has indeed moved CA-49 to toss-up status, which is amazing. As for MO-Sen, I was right. All three have now classified that race as a pure toss-up. Rothenberg seems somewhat behind on CA-49 and KS-03 moving out of the safe category, even then to the least competitive non-safe rank.

Overall, there has been a good amount of movement, mostly towards Democrats. I think we're still "wait and see" as far as down-ballot goes, especially the House.

Cook:
NY-23: Lean R to Likely R
NY-03: Lean D to Likely D
MN-02: Lean D to Toss Up
MI-08: Solid R to Likely R
KS-03: Likely R to Lean R
IA-03: Toss Up to Lean R
IN-09: Likely R to Lean R
CA-49: Lean R to Toss Up

Rothenberg:
IN-Sen: Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-up
MO-Sen: Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Pure Toss-up
IA-01: Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-up
AZ-01: Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Lean Democrat
NY-03: Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Lean Democrat
MI-01: *Toss-up/Tilt Republican
VA-10: Lean Republican to Toss-up/Tilt Republican
MI-07: *Lean Republican
CA-49: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
KS-03: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
MT-AL: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

The asterisks show a ratings change on the site, but comparing to the previous ratings shows no change. I don't know what to do there, so I showed both the rating and the direction change that it shows on the site.

[publicunofficial]

BIG House Ratings Changes from Sabato:

House
CA-31 (Aguilar): Likely D to Safe D
CA-10 (Denham): Lean R to Toss-Up
CA-49 (Issa) Lean R to Toss-Up
CA-25 (Knight): Lean R to Toss-Up
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R to Likely R
ME-02 (Poliquin): Lean R to Toss-Up
MI-08 (Bishop): Safe R to Likely R
NY-24 (Katko): Toss-Up to Lean R
NY-01 (Zeldin): Toss-Up to Lean R
PA-16 (OPEN): Likely R to Lean R
VA-10 (Comstock): Lean R to Toss-Up

[Fitzgerald]

BIG House Ratings Changes from Sabato:

House
CA-31 (Aguilar): Likely D to Safe D
CA-10 (Denham): Lean R to Toss-Up
CA-49 (Issa) Lean R to Toss-Up
CA-25 (Knight): Lean R to Toss-Up
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R to Likely R
ME-02 (Poliquin): Lean R to Toss-Up
MI-08 (Bishop): Safe R to Likely R
NY-24 (Katko): Toss-Up to Lean R
NY-01 (Zeldin): Toss-Up to Lean R
PA-16 (OPEN): Likely R to Lean R
VA-10 (Comstock): Lean R to Toss-Up

I'd say I almost feel sorry for Denham, Knight, and Issa, given that Clinton's coattails in California are likely to be absurd, but I really don't.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato shifts FL-SEN from Likely R to Lean R. Funny, the DSCC told me that the Rubioslide was infinitely growing.

[publicunofficial]

BIG House Ratings Changes from Sabato:

House
CA-31 (Aguilar): Likely D to Safe D
CA-10 (Denham): Lean R to Toss-Up
CA-49 (Issa) Lean R to Toss-Up
CA-25 (Knight): Lean R to Toss-Up
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R to Likely R
ME-02 (Poliquin): Lean R to Toss-Up
MI-08 (Bishop): Safe R to Likely R
NY-24 (Katko): Toss-Up to Lean R
NY-01 (Zeldin): Toss-Up to Lean R
PA-16 (OPEN): Likely R to Lean R
VA-10 (Comstock): Lean R to Toss-Up

I'd say I almost feel sorry for Denham, Knight, and Issa, given that Clinton's coattails in California are likely to be absurd, but I really don't.

Denham maybe, but Knight and Issa are POS's. Glad to see them go.

Now if only Valadao can do down too.

[Heisenberg]

Sabato shifts FL-SEN from Likely R to Lean R. Funny, the DSCC told me that the Rubioslide was infinitely growing.

Probably just a correction, or a move out of caution.