Philadelphia Mayoral Race 2007

[Keystone Phil]

This surprises me...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=175x12828

Nutter was the "progressive's" choice for Mayor, BRTD. His focus on reform breaks party and ideological boundaries so I don't know what is so surprising. It's not always going to be, "Oh my God, the Repthugicans like him! We need someone else!" By the way, they were right on about how positive he was. This campaign will be remembered for sticking with its positive message throughout. Take notes, people, because this was how a campaign should be managed.


Anyway, here are the ward breakdowns - http://www.thenextmayor.com/documents/Wards_color.pdf

Knox winning all of the NE (and by the margins I was hearing last night) is impressive but the real surprising news was how Nutter was not far behind Knox or Brady up here. Dwight Evans wins one ward, Brady only gets three and Chaka Fattah gets nothing!

[Keystone Phil]

I know the Olivia ad gets a lot of praise but I still think this is what caught a lot of eyes at the beginning - http://youtube.com/watch?v=rmlwaGri09Q&mode=related&search=

[J. J.]

Just a note:  I'm in the undecided 11 Ward.

What really interests me is that Nutter won most of the Black wards, with some White ones.  Knox won most of the White wards, with some Black ones.

[Keystone Phil]

Just a note:  I'm in the undecided 11 Ward.

What really interests me is that Nutter won most of the Black wards

That is interesting. I figured Fattah would win a few. He got nothing. Dwight Evans managed to win a ward but Fattah couldn't! It's especially funny because Fattah was supposed to be Mayor. Brady running was never supposed to happen and if you remember before that, Fattah was the clear frontrunner.

[Gabu]

This surprises me...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=175x12828

So if Phil supported Nutter, and Flyers supported Nutter, and DU residents supported Nutter... who the heck was supporting other people?

[Keystone Phil]

This surprises me...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=175x12828

So if Phil supported Nutter, and Flyers supported Nutter, and DU residents supported Nutter... who the heck was supporting other people?

The machine and personal followings.

[J. J.]

Just a note:  I'm in the undecided 11 Ward.

What really interests me is that Nutter won most of the Black wards

That is interesting. I figured Fattah would win a few. He got nothing. Dwight Evans managed to win a ward but Fattah couldn't! It's especially funny because Fattah was supposed to be Mayor. Brady running was never supposed to happen and if you remember before that, Fattah was the clear frontrunner.

Look at that Broad Street divide.  Wards 43, 37, 7, and 19 are Black wards, and Knox carried them.  Wards 5, 8, 9, 21 are White wards, and Nutter carried them.

I love this, a map that isn't demographic!

[Keystone Phil]

I love this, a map that isn't demographic!

People realized that this is more important than race. This is going to be remembered as one of the most important Mayoral races in this city's history. This is a turning point.

[Keystone Phil]

And no surprise here - Katz (whose son actually worked for Nutter) won't run against Nutter - http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20070516_Katz_praises_Nutter__wont_run_against_him.html


"I just think the guy did a virtually unbelievable job on every front," said Katz, who stopped by Nutter's victory party last night at the Radisson Plaza - Warwick Hotel. His son, a Nutter campaign volunteer, had invited him.

"It was the first time I'd been in a room with a lot of Democrats in a long time," quipped Katz, a Democrat until he became a Republican in 1990.

Saying he and Nutter had too much in common as far as issues they push for improving Philadelphia, Katz said he was never going to consider a race against Nutter.

[Keystone Phil]

Voters crossed racial lines in this election - http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20070517_More_voters_crossed_racial_lines_this_election.html

Very interesting note - In the first paragraph, we learn that the 66th ward (the strongest Republican ward in the city and the ward that borders my ward) voted for George Wallace for President in 1968. It's not too surprising that Wallace would do well in this area but to win the ward is a bit of a shocker. Yesterday, however, 25% of those Dems that voted decided to back a black candidate (Nutter receiving almost all of that support).


Also...

Street will support Nutter - http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/20070517_Street_will_support_Nutter__but_calls_ad_a_low_blow.html

[Keystone Phil]

Shocking news - Nutter somehow beat Brady in my ward (the 65th)! That is insane. Let's just say that my ward is one of those that usually has the reputation for being very hesitant to voting for a black candidate. This is excellent news.

http://www.thenextmayor.com/ward-by-ward.html


Also...

It looks like the 11th ward (J.J.'s) might give Fattah his only ward win. With two divisions still out, Nutter's lead is only 22 votes. I hope Nutter hangs on so Fattah is completely shut out. 

I could have sworn that J.J. said that Nutter had next to nothing for a ground organization, too. I'd love to see him win it. 

[Keystone Phil]

Brady beats Fattah by just 40 votes for third place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the man with the best name ever is a dead cert to be Mayor?

[J. J.]

It looks like the 11th ward (J.J.'s) might give Fattah his only ward win. With two divisions still out, Nutter's lead is only 22 votes. I hope Nutter hangs on so Fattah is completely shut out. 

I could have sworn that J.J. said that Nutter had next to nothing for a ground organization, too. I'd love to see him win it. 

Nutter had ZERO ground organization and I walked past 4 or 5 polling places.  My sign was the only one I saw in my division and the neighboring ones.  Fattah, Brady, and Evans had people out, signs cars.
Further, this was part of Brady's district until 2001 and is in Fattah's district now!

What divisions are out?  Did my write-in screw things up? 

Edid:  Knox had a good, though lesser, presence that the others.

[Keystone Phil]

So the man with the best name ever is a dead cert to be Mayor?

Yes. The Republicans like him enough that they won't try to recruit anyone to run (replacing Taubenberger), not that anyone really would want to run. Nutter has his mandate and everyone knows it. He and Taubenberger have agreed to an issue orientated campaign and with these two, I believe it. Everyone knows who is going to win (Taubenberger included) and Nutter is a man of his word and a clean campaigner. Unless Taubenberger decides to start mudslinging (which would really be pointless), I expect this to be the first city campaign in my memory that I can be truly proud of.

And how about this...my first votes for Mayor (both on Tuesday and in the General) will have been for a Dem.

[Keystone Phil]

It looks like the 11th ward (J.J.'s) might give Fattah his only ward win. With two divisions still out, Nutter's lead is only 22 votes. I hope Nutter hangs on so Fattah is completely shut out. 

I could have sworn that J.J. said that Nutter had next to nothing for a ground organization, too. I'd love to see him win it. 

Nutter had ZERO ground organization and I walked past 4 or 5 polling places.  My sign was the only one I saw in my division and the neighboring ones.  Fattah, Brady, and Evans had people out, signs cars.
Further, this was part of Brady's district until 2001 and is in Fattah's district now!

What divisions are out?  Did my write-in screw things up? 

http://www.thenextmayor.com/ward-by-ward.html  It doesn't tell you which divisions are still out but I hope they are favorable to Nutter or someone else. I really don't want Fattah to win a ward. It's great that he is struggling to win a North Philly ward that he represents against Nutter!

[Keystone Phil]

Brady beats Fattah by just 40 votes for third place.

It's going to be interesting to see how they keep swapping places. With some divisions still not in, Fattah could pass Brady for third...not that any of this matters though. I just like to keep track of the numbers.

[minionofmidas]

Look at that Broad Street divide.  Wards 43, 37, 7, and 19 are Black wards, and Knox carried them.  Wards 5, 8, 9, 21 are White wards, and Nutter carried them.

...and - except for 43 and 37, by massive margins, too. And even in these two, though Nutter came second and Fattah third, together they polled under 50% (but easily outpolled Knox).

[J. J.]

I thiunk the only two people that carried a district that they previously represented were Nutter and possibly Evans.  Brady and Fattah lost their own districts to different people.  LOL!

When Flyers, Phil and J. J. all agree on a candidate, you know there is something there!

[Keystone Phil]

When Flyers, Phil and J. J. all agree on a candidate, you know there is something there!

For those that didn't get a chance to see this - Nutter's victory speech - http://www.nutter2007.com/index.php?/news/victory

I remember how proud I felt when I was watching it live. As Nutter mentioned his opponents, some people started to boo. He corrected them, saying, "The election's over. It's a new day." That's exactly what we need.

[TeePee4Prez]

How bad will Nutter beat Taubenberger?  Will Nutter crack 50% in areas less likely to vote for a candidate because he's black? 

Nutter- 76%
Taubenberger- 24%...

In Wards north of Frankford Creek-

Nutter- 52%
Taubenberger- 48%

That's my prediciton for now.

[Keystone Phil]

How bad will Nutter beat Taubenberger?  Will Nutter crack 50% in areas less likely to vote for a candidate because he's black? 

Nutter- 76%
Taubenberger- 24%...

That seems dead on.

Yes, Nutter will crack 50% in areas less likely to vote for a black candidate. I think a perfect example of why this is Nutter's performance in areas like the 65th ward. I was shocked to see him even come in second place here. Voters are going to prove yet again that race doesn't matter as much as we thought it did.

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It'll be interesting to see if Taubenberger can win in his base.