How and where does Trump crack the blue wall?
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  How and where does Trump crack the blue wall?
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Author Topic: How and where does Trump crack the blue wall?  (Read 1759 times)
Spark
Spark498
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« on: August 21, 2016, 01:01:38 PM »

Besides winning PA.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2016, 01:03:26 PM »


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

Ahuh...
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2016, 01:04:34 PM »

You should really take it easy on posting so many threads.
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2016, 01:06:10 PM »

You should really take it easy on posting so many threads.

My activity is going to slow down later this week, so I better post as much as I can now.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2016, 01:12:24 PM »

Surely you realize that most of us don't think the polls are "biased" against Trump, and don't think that he will win enough Obama states.
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Smash255
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2016, 01:16:31 PM »

PA?  LMAO
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2016, 01:16:37 PM »

He doesn't.

If he could, then his only real options would be Pennsylvania and Michigan, in that order.

Also, I don't think that NH counts as part of the blue wall, does it? I thought the blue wall comprises the states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2016, 01:16:45 PM »

Assuming WI doesn't tighten significantly, he probably has to win PA, because he has zero chance of winning NH.

And zero chance of winning WI so yea.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2016, 01:20:20 PM »

Assuming WI doesn't tighten significantly, he probably has to win PA, because he has zero chance of winning NH.

And zero chance of winning WI so yea.

So then PA is the do or die state for him. Case closed Tongue

That's been the case for...forever.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2016, 01:25:46 PM »

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Smash255
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2016, 01:26:47 PM »

Also, I don't think that NH counts as part of the blue wall, does it? I thought the blue wall comprises the states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992.

NH in 2000 was a fluke, just like Clinton winning AZ in 1996 or Obama winning IN in 2008 was a fluke.

Assuming WI doesn't tighten significantly, he probably has to win PA, because he has zero chance of winning NH.

And zero chance of winning WI so yea.

So then PA is the do or die state for him. Case closed Tongue

That's been the case for...forever.

You know Republicans are in trouble when their chances depend on Pennsylvania.

Exactly and I do not see anyway possible that he wins PA.  Republicans no longer need to win suburban Philly to win the state, but they at least need to be competitive there and Trump will absolutely get demolished there.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 01:32:10 PM »

Yeah, he's made it clear that the path he's going for involves PA, but it's looking out of reach for him. By this point, I don't see any way Trump gets more than 259 EV (2012 + FL, IA, and OH), and even that isn't looking likely, at this point.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 01:33:31 PM »

Also, I don't think that NH counts as part of the blue wall, does it? I thought the blue wall comprises the states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992.

NH in 2000 was a fluke, just like Clinton winning AZ in 1996 or Obama winning IN in 2008 was a fluke.

Assuming WI doesn't tighten significantly, he probably has to win PA, because he has zero chance of winning NH.

And zero chance of winning WI so yea.

So then PA is the do or die state for him. Case closed Tongue

That's been the case for...forever.

You know Republicans are in trouble when their chances depend on Pennsylvania.

Bush only won NH in 2000 because of Nader; since the Clinton realignment of 1992, that has been the only time where a Republican won a northeastern state (this is mind blowing and super frustrating).  Indiana 2008 was because that state was a super heated primary contest between Hillary and Obama in 2008 (NC was also on that same day), and Obama exceeded expectations there by losing it by just 1%.  So he already had an impressive infrastructure and ground game operation ready for the general election.  Arizona 1996 was not a fluke.  Clinton was a popular incumbent during a time of prosperity; Dole was a weak candidate, and voters were weary of a GOP congress led by Newt and a GOP president.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 01:42:09 PM »

He doesn't.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 01:47:09 PM »

You should really take it easy on posting so many threads.

He's probably scared after that Ohio poll lol
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TDAS04
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 01:51:54 PM »

He doesn't.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2016, 02:03:58 PM »

In Hillary's America, Blue Wall breaks through you!

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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2016, 02:36:25 PM »



On Trump's best possible day, THIS could happen.

I'm throwing in the outside chance that New Mexico's Johnson vote draws more votes from Clinton than Trump, which well may play out.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2016, 02:43:59 PM »



On Trump's best possible day, THIS could happen.

I'm throwing in the outside chance that New Mexico's Johnson vote draws more votes from Clinton than Trump, which well may play out.

No
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Dabeav
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2016, 03:10:00 PM »

The LA Times (?!) poll has favorable numbers for Trump? http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2016, 03:11:59 PM »

Yeah, he's made it clear that the path he's going for involves PA, but it's looking out of reach for him. By this point, I don't see any way Trump gets more than 259 EV (2012 + FL, IA, and OH), and even that isn't looking likely, at this point.

Could push it to 260 EV if that one district in Maine is as competitive as some think it is, but yeah, this is probably the best Trump can do without a significant shift in the underlying fundamentals of the race.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2016, 03:19:41 PM »


That poll is known for having a dubious methodology: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2016, 03:28:05 PM »



On Trump's best possible day, THIS could happen.

I'm throwing in the outside chance that New Mexico's Johnson vote draws more votes from Clinton than Trump, which well may play out.


This is fantasy.  Trump has no shot at increasingly diverse states with a high % of white college graduates, such as VA, NC, CO.  PA is out due to philly and its suburbs becoming more and more democratic over the years.  I think his absolute ceiling is 270: Romney states+FL+OH+NH+ME 2nd district+IA+NV.  This is if EVERYTHING goes perfectly well until election day. 
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2016, 03:47:36 PM »


The orange-haired clown isn't going to win PA.
His chances increase slightly if he can win FL & OH, hold NC and NE02, and maybe take IA, NV and ME02.
But even if he were to win all this (above), he still is not at 270.
He needs all this, plus one more (any) state.
So the odds are enormously against him right now. Highly unlikely.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2016, 05:45:24 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2016, 05:46:59 PM by AKCreative »


That isn't much of a change...LA Times has consistently been Trump's best poll.

They also use very unconventional polling methods,  it's something like a 0-100 rating where it ask how likely they are to vote for Clinton/Trump.  
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