How and where does Trump crack the blue wall?

[Nyvin]

The LA Times (?!) poll has favorable numbers for Trump? http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

That isn't much of a change...LA Times has consistently been Trump's best poll.

They also use very unconventional polling methods,  it's something like a 0-100 rating where it ask how likely they are to vote for Clinton/Trump.  

[Nyvin]

On Trump's best possible day, THIS could happen.

I'm throwing in the outside chance that New Mexico's Johnson vote draws more votes from Clinton than Trump, which well may play out.

No

It's not a likely map, but I do think it represents the top of Trump's possibilities.  I would not have NM in there for Trump in a 2 way race.

When Trump is polling within single digits in CO, NH, and VA you can post that map...

[Nyvin]

On Trump's best possible day, THIS could happen.

I'm throwing in the outside chance that New Mexico's Johnson vote draws more votes from Clinton than Trump, which well may play out.

No

It's not a likely map, but I do think it represents the top of Trump's possibilities.  I would not have NM in there for Trump in a 2 way race.

When Trump is polling within single digits in CO, NH, and VA you can post that map...

It's best that we disregard current polling, because the only poll that matters is in November. I can list a number of candidates that were leading at this time and went on to lose the general election. So it's best we not jump to conclusions just yet.

Okay...so what exactly is his prediction based on?   Why bother posting the map at all?