Also, I don't think that NH counts as part of the blue wall, does it? I thought the blue wall comprises the states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992.
NH in 2000 was a fluke, just like Clinton winning AZ in 1996 or Obama winning IN in 2008 was a fluke.
Assuming WI doesn't tighten significantly, he probably has to win PA, because he has zero chance of winning NH.
And zero chance of winning WI so yea.
So then PA is the do or die state for him. Case closed
That's been the case for...forever.
You know Republicans are in trouble when their chances depend on Pennsylvania.
Bush only won NH in 2000 because of Nader; since the Clinton realignment of 1992, that has been the only time where a Republican won a northeastern state (this is mind blowing and super frustrating). Indiana 2008 was because that state was a super heated primary contest between Hillary and Obama in 2008 (NC was also on that same day), and Obama exceeded expectations there by losing it by just 1%. So he already had an impressive infrastructure and ground game operation ready for the general election. Arizona 1996 was not a fluke. Clinton was a popular incumbent during a time of prosperity; Dole was a weak candidate, and voters were weary of a GOP congress led by Newt and a GOP president.