How many of these people even vote in swing states? Probably at least half of their official residences are in New York and California.
Yea, you're most likely right but remember a lot of these people could also be from Florida and Pennsylvania. However, even those voters would be from left-leaning areas of those swing states.
Also, in terms of make-up of Americans living in Israel, there are three categories that could fit these people:
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Politically motivated migrants: American Jews whose Zionism is so passionate that they felt compelled to move to Israel. There are different waves of this type of American-Israeli but they usually come from strong Jewish families that are very Pro-Israel. These people usually, but not always, become "lone soldiers" (soldiers who immigrated to serve) in the IDF Depending on the age group, Trump could win some of these people, but there are so many young Jews, most of whom aren't religious or crazy right-wing, who make up this group...and I just don't see these people voting for him.
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Retirees: There are many American Jews who want to move to Israel but won't for a variety of reasons when they are younger (patriotism for the U.S. is a bigger pull for them, they want to keep more of their money safe from the high Israeli taxes, they have better job security in America, they don't want to serve in the IDF, they want to raise their kids in America for schools and job opportunities etc...). So, once these people retire they decide to move to Israel. In some cases, these are people who follow their kids to Israel. I don't see Trump doing well with this "demographic"...they are older, more Ashkenazi and more liberal, usually. A good example is former U.S. Congressman Peter Deutsch (D-FL; DWS' mentor).
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Other: This is a catch-all for all other American Jews who immigrate to Israel. Some might have left due to money problems (seriously unlikely, considering Israel's economy sucks but I'm sure there are some), some might have moved there for jobs, other to escape legal problems in the U.S. etc...etc... This is such a small group that I doubt Trump would get any real bump from this type of voter.
