PA: CEPEX: Junk poll has Trump +5

[RI]

http://www.cbs8.com/story/32806609/trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-the-key-battleground-state-of-pennsylvania

Trump 41.9
Clinton 36.5

[Wells]

What's the current polling average in PA? Clinton +7? Okay.

[Dr. Arch]

Why even bother posting this here? lol.

[Speed of Sound]

This one has finally struck a nerve with Nate Silver:

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[RI]

Why even bother posting this here, lol.

Because it's been making the rounds online. Some are claiming it's fake, but I've seen no actual evidence that that's the case. I'd be curious if anyone around here could dig anything up one way or another.

[The Other Castro]

Where's the post for that new Wainwright Analytics poll showing Clinton +11 in Montana?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Why even bother posting this here? lol.

[Ebsy]

Definitely a fake poll. The firm that found these "results" is an oil and natural gas consulting firm. The crosstabs are so bizarre that they could only be fake.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One very basic element of this poll doesn't add up.  The URL in the OP leads to this actual source: http://www.projectexecution.consulting/cepexpoll/, which says that the poll is of 1000 RV (landline numbers, English, robocall) and that "Results are statistically significant within ±7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

But the MOE should be much smaller for a sample that size.  Based on a sample of 1000 in a population of 8.5 million (PA's 2012 RV number), I get 3.1%.

[Wells]

I found the crosstabs on their website. They say 1,000 people participated yet they only seem to have 441 according to their ethnicity crosstab numbers. Or 294 if you look at age crosstabs. Or 288 if you look at the party ID crosstabs. The numbers don't add up: whites go 36% Trump, 30% Hillary, 34% neither. Minorities go 59% Hillary, 18% Trump, 23% Neither. "Unknown" (why would they be unknown?) go 85% Trump, 7% Hillary, 7% Neither. If you add up the numbers, you get 55% Trump, 23% Hillary, 23% Neither.
But that's not the top line numbers at all. They didn't even try to make this convincing. Sadly, it looks like Trump supporters are falling for it. r/thedonald is going crazy.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yeah, this is fake.

Thanks, cap...

[DINGO Joe]

I actually surprised given the "quality" of people that Trump has working for his campaign that we haven't been flooded with fake polls.

[Wells]

Yeah, this is fake.

At least it is more convincing than that "leaked" PPP internal.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/767496481054003200

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, this is fake.

At least it is more convincing than that "leaked" PPP internal.

I thought the PPP one was obviously a joke.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

What is this? LOL

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is this? LOL

It's making Trump reddit happy, so you know it's trash.

[Wells]

I decided I'd put in one more piece of evidence: party ID is 28% Democrat, 28% Republican, 8% Independent (?), 11% Other,  and 25% Non-Affiliated (wouldn't that be Independent?)/Unknown (why don't they know this?). Democrats go 54% Clinton, 17% Trump, 29% Neither. Republicans go 53% Trump, 17% Clinton, 30% Neither. Independents go 23% Clinton, 18% Trump, 59% Neither. Others go 35% Trump, 23% Clinton, 42% Neither. NA/UK go 38% Clinton, 29% Trump, 38% Neither. If you add it up, you get 32% Trump, 34% Clinton, 35% Neither.

Fake.

[pbrower2a]

Worse than my "Loof-Lirpa" polls on April 1 (read it backward)  and the revival of the Stassen for President campaign (he's dead, but why should that stop him!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Worse than my "Loof-Lirpa" polls on April 1 (read it backward)  and the revival of the Stassen for President campaign (he's dead, but why should that stop him!

Death isn't that much of an impediment in politics.  Don't forget that Missouri elected a dead man (Mel Carnahan) as Senator in 2000!

[DINGO Joe]

Worse than my "Loof-Lirpa" polls on April 1 (read it backward)  and the revival of the Stassen for President campaign (he's dead, but why should that stop him!

Death isn't that much of an impediment in politics.  Don't forget that Missouri elected a dead man (Mel Carnahan) as Senator in 2000!

Well yeah, but he deserved to win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Worse than my "Loof-Lirpa" polls on April 1 (read it backward)  and the revival of the Stassen for President campaign (he's dead, but why should that stop him!

Death isn't that much of an impediment in politics.  Don't forget that Missouri elected a dead man (Mel Carnahan) as Senator in 2000!

Well... against, John Ashcroft?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Soooo...it's fake?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Soooo...it's fake?

Says who!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's not a poll, it is an intelligence test!