Can Trump win CT?

[Spark]

And why or why not?

It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

It is not possible.

Of course it's possible. There is a model for a state-wide win in Connecticut by Republicans.  It's not likely that Trump will execute it.

Republicans haven't won CT since 1988.

MI & PA also.

And neither are in play, so what is your point?

My point is that Trump will win where most are not expecting.

On what basis?

The basis that he is not a conventional politician.

His unconventionalness doesn't matter if the electorate looks anything like a conventional electorate. If anything that makes highly-conventional states like Connecticut more difficult for Trump. Maybe it gives him an edge in Alaska or Montana that have a reputation for being eccentric or contrarian, but not in the majority of the country.

Any other states come to mind?

Maine, maybe? Perhaps Minnesota, given that they once elected a Reform Party governor, though it has been quite a while since that happened, and the state Republican party was not in particularly good shape the last time I heard anything about it. There aren't too many that come to mind, honestly. And even in those two, the natural Democratic electoral advantage in each is hard to overcome; more likely that Trump makes the races a bit closer than usual than that he actually wins them.

Best argument I've heard in a while. Not Minnesota though because I feel that he is a poorer fit for the state than Romney, and likely to do better in places like WI or MI.

Agreed on Minnesota, Romney was a better fit there given that it is a relatively well-educated state and those voters have been Trump's weakness. That'll offset whatever benefit he gets from its somewhat idiosyncratic tendencies.

Trump will do better with the working class voters but whatever gains he makes will be offset with the educated vote. So in the end, he does worse in Minnesota with <45%. Maybe slightly better in WI with about 47%. MI would be around 48% or 49% and expecting it to be extremely close due to Trump's reaching out to the AA working class voters, impact on the polling numbers remains to be seen though.

Trump is going to get crushed in MI.  He's not resonating with blacks and will probably do worse than Romney with them.  He's going to flop in Dearborn, home to America's largest Arab population.  And affluent Oakland County will also be bad for him; even Romney, who was born and raised there, lost the county.  Trump may do better in blue collar Macomb County than Romney but not too much better.

This election is going to be a YUGE win for Hillary.

I agree with that but he actually has a chance to win Macomb county. And Hillary is going to lose this election.

[Maxwell]

way way way too many college educated people.

also Michigan is fool's gold - people are imaging all Michiganders as working class whites but that is a huge mistake. It's very diverse - and most of the different groups of Michigan are anti-Trump. Blacks, Muslims, and even the more religious but also more well off Western Michigan, who are very conservative, seem to be trending away from The Donald (I mean, polls showed him trailing in Western Michigan just as Romney won it easily).

and for the record, why would Michigan vote Republican after Republican incompetence caused the Flint water crisis?

[Lachi]

And why or why not?

It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

It is not possible.

Of course it's possible. There is a model for a state-wide win in Connecticut by Republicans.  It's not likely that Trump will execute it.

Republicans haven't won CT since 1988.

MI & PA also.

And neither are in play, so what is your point?

My point is that Trump will win where most are not expecting.

On what basis?

The basis that he is not a conventional politician.

His unconventionalness doesn't matter if the electorate looks anything like a conventional electorate. If anything that makes highly-conventional states like Connecticut more difficult for Trump. Maybe it gives him an edge in Alaska or Montana that have a reputation for being eccentric or contrarian, but not in the majority of the country.

Any other states come to mind?

Maine, maybe? Perhaps Minnesota, given that they once elected a Reform Party governor, though it has been quite a while since that happened, and the state Republican party was not in particularly good shape the last time I heard anything about it. There aren't too many that come to mind, honestly. And even in those two, the natural Democratic electoral advantage in each is hard to overcome; more likely that Trump makes the races a bit closer than usual than that he actually wins them.

Best argument I've heard in a while. Not Minnesota though because I feel that he is a poorer fit for the state than Romney, and likely to do better in places like WI or MI.

Agreed on Minnesota, Romney was a better fit there given that it is a relatively well-educated state and those voters have been Trump's weakness. That'll offset whatever benefit he gets from its somewhat idiosyncratic tendencies.

Trump will do better with the working class voters but whatever gains he makes will be offset with the educated vote. So in the end, he does worse in Minnesota with <45%. Maybe slightly better in WI with about 47%. MI would be around 48% or 49% and expecting it to be extremely close due to Trump's reaching out to the AA working class voters, impact on the polling numbers remains to be seen though.

Trump is going to get crushed in MI.  He's not resonating with blacks and will probably do worse than Romney with them.  He's going to flop in Dearborn, home to America's largest Arab population.  And affluent Oakland County will also be bad for him; even Romney, who was born and raised there, lost the county.  Trump may do better in blue collar Macomb County than Romney but not too much better.

This election is going to be a YUGE win for Hillary.

I agree with that but he actually has a chance to win Macomb county. And Hillary is going to lose this election.

Lolnope.

[Adam the Gr8]

No.

[Smash255]

Not sure if you are trolling, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

No Republican can win a Presidential race in CT period.  Certain Republicans can win statewide, but it would be very difficult.  They would also need to do very well with college educated middle to upper middle class voters.  This is not Trump's strong suit.  In fact Trump will probably do considerably worse than any Republican Presidential candidate in recent history with this group.

[Dr. Arch]

Theoretically speaking, Hillary could also win Canada if they joined the union before the elections. But when you're talking in terms of theoretical possibilities versus realistic expectations given the socio-geographic constraints and the historical-political context, at least in the world of politics, you've already lost the argument and are immediately dismissed when presenting such an idea as a vanilla question.

[Spark]

Theoretically speaking, Hillary could also win Canada if they joined the union before the elections. But when you're talking in terms of theoretical possibilities versus realistic expectations given the socio-geographic constraints and the historical-political context, at least in the world of politics, you've already lost the argument and are immediately dismissed when presenting such an idea as a vanilla question.

Thanks for stopping by, Arch. Don't worry he won't win Wisconsin, even I believe that. I'm not yet familiar with the demographics of CT. I only asked the question out of curiosity.

[Hammy]

No, because Connecticut is a solidly Democratic state, and Trump is a terrible candidate. You can pretty much rule out any state Obama won by more than 6 or 7.

Okay.. Why is he holding rallies there then?

Simply put, because he can. Clinton held a rally in Nebraska too--that doesn't mean she can win it.

[Seriously?]

And why or why not?

It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

Roll your eyes at me all you want, but the last Q poll from June had it at -7/-5, which puts CT in "Lean D" territory. A win for Trump in that scenario is possible, but unlikely unless there's a uniform shift towards Trump.

Plus, if you have all of this movement towards Hillary in states like Texas and South Carolina, as you red avatars claim, and the national numbers basically are at Obama 2012 territory, where does the other Trump vote logically come from? The Northeast where there are a lot of blue collar Catholics.

While Connecticut is an unlikely get, it's not an impossible one for the Trump campaign. There's a difference. The question posed by the OP was can Trump win CT, not will he.  Can he win it? Sure in a perfect storm scenario. Will he win it? Probably not.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL. As much as Hillary can win TN.

[Redban]

I doubt it.

[The Other Castro]

There is no chance whatsoever of Connecticut voting for Trump. Nada. Not happening.

[Seriously?]

And why or why not?

It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

Roll your eyes at me all you want, but the last Q poll from June had it at -7/-5, which puts CT in "Lean D" territory. A win for Trump in that scenario is possible, but unlikely unless there's a uniform shift towards Trump.

Plus, if you have all of this movement towards Hillary in states like Texas and South Carolina, as you red avatars claim, and the national numbers basically are at Obama 2012 territory, where does the other Trump vote logically come from? The Northeast where there are a lot of blue collar Catholics.

While Connecticut is an unlikely get, it's not an impossible one for the Trump campaign. There's a difference. The question posed by the OP was can Trump win CT, not will he.  Can he win it? Sure in a perfect storm scenario. Will he win it? Probably not.

...You actually think CT is lean D?

I don't think when it comes to ratings like that. I look at data.

The RCP Average is +7.5 (2-way)/+5 (4-way) academically, that makes it lean D.

Lean D is a Democrat lead between 5 and 10 points. Obviously, we need new data points.

As I have stated numerous times on this thread the question is whether Trump can win Connecticut. He can. There is a path to victory. However, it's unlikely that he wins the state. That's a distinction with a difference.

[The Arizonan]

Here's a newsflash: Hillary Clinton is worried about her chances of winning Connecticut and is spending campaign money and dedicating resources to keep it firmly in her column. The normally deep blue city of Bridgeport is looking competitive.



In all seriousness, Donald Trump is just not going to win Connecticut. It is essentially a suburb of the liberal bastion that is New York City and its largest city, Bridgeport, has not elected a Republican mayor since the 1990s.

If this was 1988, he would have had a real shot.

[Smash255]

And why or why not?

It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

Roll your eyes at me all you want, but the last Q poll from June had it at -7/-5, which puts CT in "Lean D" territory. A win for Trump in that scenario is possible, but unlikely unless there's a uniform shift towards Trump.

Plus, if you have all of this movement towards Hillary in states like Texas and South Carolina, as you red avatars claim, and the national numbers basically are at Obama 2012 territory, where does the other Trump vote logically come from? The Northeast where there are a lot of blue collar Catholics.

While Connecticut is an unlikely get, it's not an impossible one for the Trump campaign. There's a difference. The question posed by the OP was can Trump win CT, not will he.  Can he win it? Sure in a perfect storm scenario. Will he win it? Probably not.

...You actually think CT is lean D?

I don't think when it comes to ratings like that. I look at data.

The RCP Average is +7.5 (2-way)/+5 (4-way) academically, that makes it lean D.

Lean D is a Democrat lead between 5 and 10 points. Obviously, we need new data points.

As I have stated numerous times on this thread the question is whether Trump can win Connecticut. He can. There is a path to victory. However, it's unlikely that he wins the state. That's a distinction with a difference.

What is Trump's path of victory in CT??   He really has none.  Trump's base is white working class voters without a college education.  That base really doesn't exist in CT, especially where the people are.  4th highest bachelor's degree % in the nation, 3rd highest advanced degrees.