Can Trump win CT?

[Lachi]

No, no, and no.

Also, stop posting threads so quickly, you know people don't like it, so why continue?

[Lachi]

And why or why not?

It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

It is not possible.

Of course it's possible. There is a model for a state-wide win in Connecticut by Republicans.  It's not likely that Trump will execute it.

Republicans haven't won CT since 1988.

MI & PA also.

And neither are in play, so what is your point?

My point is that Trump will win where most are not expecting.

On what basis?

The basis that he is not a conventional politician.

His unconventionalness doesn't matter if the electorate looks anything like a conventional electorate. If anything that makes highly-conventional states like Connecticut more difficult for Trump. Maybe it gives him an edge in Alaska or Montana that have a reputation for being eccentric or contrarian, but not in the majority of the country.

Any other states come to mind?

Maine, maybe? Perhaps Minnesota, given that they once elected a Reform Party governor, though it has been quite a while since that happened, and the state Republican party was not in particularly good shape the last time I heard anything about it. There aren't too many that come to mind, honestly. And even in those two, the natural Democratic electoral advantage in each is hard to overcome; more likely that Trump makes the races a bit closer than usual than that he actually wins them.

Best argument I've heard in a while. Not Minnesota though because I feel that he is a poorer fit for the state than Romney, and likely to do better in places like WI or MI.

Agreed on Minnesota, Romney was a better fit there given that it is a relatively well-educated state and those voters have been Trump's weakness. That'll offset whatever benefit he gets from its somewhat idiosyncratic tendencies.

Trump will do better with the working class voters but whatever gains he makes will be offset with the educated vote. So in the end, he does worse in Minnesota with <45%. Maybe slightly better in WI with about 47%. MI would be around 48% or 49% and expecting it to be extremely close due to Trump's reaching out to the AA working class voters, impact on the polling numbers remains to be seen though.

Trump is going to get crushed in MI.  He's not resonating with blacks and will probably do worse than Romney with them.  He's going to flop in Dearborn, home to America's largest Arab population.  And affluent Oakland County will also be bad for him; even Romney, who was born and raised there, lost the county.  Trump may do better in blue collar Macomb County than Romney but not too much better.

This election is going to be a YUGE win for Hillary.

I agree with that but he actually has a chance to win Macomb county. And Hillary is going to lose this election.

Lolnope.