2020: President Clinton v. Governor Barbara Comstock

[Kingpoleon]

President Hillary Clinton has 45/51 approvals/disapprovals in June 2020. Her personal favorability is at 39/55. Vice President Tim Kaine has a 45/49 approval/disapproval and favorability at 48/45. Unemployment is at 6.5% and inflation is rising. Combined, many economists predict an economic recession by early to mid November.

Governor Barabara Comstock* is running alongside Senator Norm Coleman**. Comstock has 50/42 approvals in her home state with national favorability at 48/40. Coleman has approvals at 53/43 in his home state with national favorability at 45/35.

*Elected November 2017 against Ralph Northam 51-45
**Elected April 2017 in special election to replace Agriculture Secretary Klobuchar; defeated Patti Fritz in 2017 50-43; defeated Keith Ellison in 2018 53-45

How would the presidential election go? Discuss with and without maps.

[Deblano]

Well, my Congresswoman is the GOP nominee in this scenario. I'm honored

[heatcharger]

Well, my Congresswoman is the GOP nominee in this scenario. I'm honored disgusted

Hopefully LuAnn Bennett ends her political career do something this proposterous never happens.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Partisan fatigue gives Comstock a win by Obama '08-like margins:

[Vosem]

Comstock is not going to be elected Governor in 2017 (especially since it seems likely she will be running for a Senate seat), and I doubt she will run for President in 2020 after just three years in the Senate. Norm Coleman also has terrible approval ratings in MN, and has almost certainly left politics permanently; if he has not, he is likelier to run for Governor than for the Senate.

But, in your hypothetical scenario, an incumbent President with negative approval and such incredibly negative personal favorability ratings would lose to a competent challenger. Map along these lines, though several Democratic-voting states (NV, CO, MN, WI, PA) are won very narrowly, while no Republican state is closer than ~3% margin (VA is closest):