Which TX county will be more Democratic?

[Miles]

I've been wondering this.

Obama was the first Democrat since FDR to win Harris County twice. It voted for him in 2008 by 19K votes and he held it in 2012 by just 971. Before Obama, it was pretty textbook Lean R, for a larger county. If Trump is underperforming with suburban voters, I imagine Hillary improves on Obama there.

Jefferson County (Beaumont/Port Arthur) by contrast has voted Democratic in all but two elections since FDR (1956 and 1972). The margins over recent cycles are getting smaller, though; Gore carried it by 6%, for example, but Obama won it by less than 2% in 2012. It has the largest % black population of any TX county at 34% (vs 22% for Harris) but is more blue collar, given that the oil industry's role in the economy.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Jefferson

[DINGO Joe]

Harris--Hispanics of all income levels aren't gonna put up with Trump's [inks].

[Indy Texas]

Jefferson County basically votes the way other urban Southern counties vote - the plurality black population plus some Democratic whites outvote the overwhelmingly Republican whites. It's a very racially polarized county. Their public school district was taken over by the state a few years ago because it was in such poor shape - a combination of corruption by elected officials and chronic revenue problems stemming from white flight to suburban parts of the county or to adjacent counties.

Basically, the kind of white people who live in Jefferson County are the kind of people who will vote for Donald Trump with enthusiasm. Unfortunately, they were going to vote for whoever the Republican was anyway, so there's not much room to grow.

Harris County, by contrast, has plenty of college-educated whites who voted for the Bushes/McCain/Romney and could feasibly vote for HER (especially the ladies), for Johnson or simply leave the ballot blank. It's a growing area where incomes and job prospects have improved over the long-term rather than gotten worse, so there's little resentment to tap into.

I doubt Jefferson's results will be significantly different from 2012. Clinton will either win Harris County by a little or by a lot, depending on how bad of a night Trump has.