Should Trump go after Pennsylvania or Michigan?

[Ogre Mage]

I think this would have been the Kasich (and maybe Rubio) vs. Clinton map this year:

Kasich 279
Clinton 259

It should be their target map in 2020, give or take CO.

The problem is that for Kasich to have won the Republican Primary, he would have had to take stances which would have hugely damaged his general election appeal.  He largely refused to do so and lost the primary.  This is the Catch-22 the Republican Party finds itself in.

[Redban]

He's actually doing a couple points better in PA than in MI, as the Atlas polling map shows.

RCP average has Clinton up 9.2 in PA, but 7.3 in MI.  This is consistent with my expectations, which are that MI is going to be one or two points to the right of PA.

There are significantly fewer polls for Michigan than PA. In 2012, RCP had Michigan at 4.0 and Pennsylvania at 3.8 --- nearly even. Yet on Election Day, Michigan was D+9 while PA was D+5 -- 4 point difference.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

He's actually doing a couple points better in PA than in MI, as the Atlas polling map shows.

RCP average has Clinton up 9.2 in PA, but 7.3 in MI.  This is consistent with my expectations, which are that MI is going to be one or two points to the right of PA.

There are significantly fewer polls for Michigan than PA. In 2012, RCP had Michigan at 4.0 and Pennsylvania at 3.8 --- nearly even. Yet on Election Day, Michigan was D+9 while PA was D+5 -- 4 point difference.

In 2012 Romney insulted a large portion of potential Republican voters by calling them dependent on the government.  In 2016 Trump is promising to bring Michigan back to the golden age of manufacturing.  Very different candidates and messages.