Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio (user search)
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  Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio (search mode)
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Author Topic: Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio  (Read 5260 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,397
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« on: August 22, 2016, 12:11:45 PM »

A state that should be good for Trump in theory, has pretty much never shown him leading. Lean D.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,397
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2016, 03:22:04 PM »

Johnson's numbers will decrease by election day.

Which would help Clinton. BAD!
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,397
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2016, 09:02:01 AM »

I am well aware that it is industry standard, but when you get to this pronounced of a shift, it becomes a question whether the entire sample should be thrown out (aka the 1 of 20 polls that is unreliable as a matter of science). I don't think I've seen a poll that when accounting for demographics shifted the D/R/I by 8% before.

What people like you don't understand is: PARTY ID DOESN'T MATTER THAT MUCH.

Party ID is merely a state of mind question, not a concrete demographic. Party registration is, but that's rarely asked in polls.

Didn't you learn anything from 2012? Unskewing by Party ID has never made any sense.
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