Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio (user search)
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  Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio (search mode)
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Author Topic: Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio  (Read 5264 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« on: August 22, 2016, 01:37:24 PM »

Consistent with Clinton up 5-6 nationally :/
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2016, 02:52:54 PM »

If Kasich had won the nomination:

Kasich 57
Clinton 33

B-b-but the base would have stayed home!!11!
It's Shy Trumpers, who, while trolling the polls, will vote  Trump on Election Day! Cheesy



Sarcasm!
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2016, 09:11:10 AM »

I am well aware that it is industry standard, but when you get to this pronounced of a shift, it becomes a question whether the entire sample should be thrown out (aka the 1 of 20 polls that is unreliable as a matter of science). I don't think I've seen a poll that when accounting for demographics shifted the D/R/I by 8% before.

What people like you don't understand is: PARTY ID DOESN'T MATTER THAT MUCH.

Party ID is merely a state of mind question, not a concrete demographic. Party registration is, but that's rarely asked in polls.

Didn't you learn anything from 2012? Unskewing by Party ID has never made any sense.
Achtung! It is not what he is talking about.

But this poll is pretty much in line with other polls. Relatively small sample size might skew crosstabs, why they probably had to reweigh it that much.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2016, 09:40:17 AM »

I am well aware that it is industry standard, but when you get to this pronounced of a shift, it becomes a question whether the entire sample should be thrown out (aka the 1 of 20 polls that is unreliable as a matter of science). I don't think I've seen a poll that when accounting for demographics shifted the D/R/I by 8% before.

What people like you don't understand is: PARTY ID DOESN'T MATTER THAT MUCH.

Party ID is merely a state of mind question, not a concrete demographic. Party registration is, but that's rarely asked in polls.

Didn't you learn anything from 2012? Unskewing by Party ID has never made any sense.
Achtung! It is not what he is talking about.

But this poll is pretty much in line with other polls. Relatively small sample size might skew crosstabs, why they probably had to reweigh it that much.

He's complaining that a random sample is being weighted to resemble a representative sample. That's inane, and a good sign that he actually doesn't know what he's talking about. For a host of reasons, initial random samples are almost never representative of actual voting populations.
No, he's complaining about the size of this shift. It might indicate that sample is too skewed to be "restored", but since Monmouth is a A pollster, they know what they are doing.

I'd be desirable, if all pollsters were more transparent about how reweighting works, but since it is part of their success, they won't share Cheesy
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