If Clinton wins, who will be leading 2020 GOP primary polls as of November 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton wins in November, and a couple of weeks later (late November 2016, or just three months from now) a pollster does a national primary poll for the 2020 Republican nomination.  Who is leading?  I assume it’s someone like one of the aforementioned names, since folks like Cotton and Sasse are way too unknown to be leading any national polls just yet.

Not sure if Trump would actually be included in such a poll, but maybe he will be, even if I doubt he would run again.  Romney also probably won’t be included in such a poll, and certainly isn’t going to run again.  But…you never know what pollsters might do.

Bonus question: Will Iowa and New Hampshire polls have a different leader from the national polls?

[Heisenberg]

Pence will be heavily tied to Trump. Trump and Romney likely won't be included. Kasich is a possibility, as are Ryan and Rubio (assuming he wins reelection). I sure hope Cruz isn't the nominee in 2020, the last thing the GOP needs is to go down that road.

[IceSpear]

Probably Ryan.

[LLR]

Cruz

[Kevin]

Hard to say.

As of now Cruz is badly damaged politically. With the way things are currently I doubt he runs in 2020.

[RINO Tom]

Probably Ryan.

[TarHeelDem]

Cruz. The GOP tends to hand it to their runner-up the following cycle. Ultimately Cruz might win a few states Trump didn't but won't be enough of an improvement. And honestly I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan sat it out until 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

And honestly I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan sat it out until 2024.

That's not relevant to whether or not he'll be leading the polls in a few months.  Even if he's not running for prez in 2020, Ryan will leave the option open for a while, just like he did in the '16 cycle.

[Arbitrage1980]

I think the top 3 will be Ben Sasse, Tom Cotton, Scott Walker.

[Mr. Morden]

I think the top 3 will be Ben Sasse, Tom Cotton, Scott Walker.

Cotton and Sasse have negligible name recognition.  What can they possibly do in the next three months to propel them to the top of national polls?

[President Johnson]

Rafael Eduardo Cruz.

[Redban]

Trusted

[diptheriadan]

Transrectul Ultrasound Ted

EDIT: F**k I was cringey back then. 2/10/20

[Medal506]

If Clinton destroys Trump in a landslide in November then I believe it would be a miracle if Ted Cruz isn't the Republican nominee in 2020. Heres what I base that on. Historically the person that comes in second or third in the primary usually wins the next time, also people are angry with the establishment and are tired of typical politicians not to mention the establishment is quite weakened. So yeah Ted Cruz is the only candidate that is against the establishment and I don't think under 4 years of Hillary Clinton people will be any happier with the establishment   

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

We might start getting 2020 polls in just ~six weeks or so.  Any further thoughts on who'll be leading them, post-Cruz's endorsement of Trump?

[LLR]

*bump*

We might start getting 2020 polls in just ~six weeks or so.  Any further thoughts on who'll be leading them, post-Cruz's endorsement of Trump?

Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, or FBM. Maybe Mike Pence depending on how he does Tuesday.

[Figueira]

Probably Cruz with a plurality. I don't expect him to do very well in reality, but he'll lead the early polls.

[Mike Thick]

Probably Cruz with a plurality. I don't expect him to do very well in reality, but he'll lead the early polls.

[Mister Mets]

I'd guess Rubio. He's likely to have positive headlines in November 2016 winning a state that Trump's likely to lose, getting free publicity with the inevitable discussions about how Republicans will have to follow his lead.

He also isn't as tainted as Cruz or Kasich.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Cotton, Sasse, Cruz

[Mister Mets]

What percent of Republicans would, at that point, even know who Sasse and Cotton are?

[Mr. Morden]

What percent of Republicans would, at that point, even know who Sasse and Cotton are?

Almost zero.  5% in the early polls would be enough for them to beat expectations.  They'll be nowhere near the lead at this early stage.

[Figueira]

Rubio, of course, depends on whether he actually wins re-election. If he loses, he's basically done. If he wins, he should do well in the 2020 polls.

[Suburbia]

Cruz, Pence, Ryan, Sasse.

[Mr. Morden]

So we have one October poll so far, the Morning Consult poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247601.0

and it had Pence in the lead.  So are November/December polls also going to have Pence leading, or was that just a blip, or a quirk of Morning Consult?