Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Minnesota

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Safe Clinton: 116
Likely Clinton: 17
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 35
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 41

Clinton: 142
Trump: 82
Toss-Up: 35

Predictions

Clinton: 177
Trump: 82

Minnesota: Likely D, 54-42 Clinton. I know a lot of people are going to vote Safe D because it seems like it never votes Republican for anything, but I think the state is always very similar to Wisconsin in presidential years and just a little too close to be safe.

[Thomas D]

The state hasn't gone Republican since 1972.  I doubt Trump will end that.

Safe D

Clinton    51
Trump     44
Johnson    4

[dspNY]

Likely D, Clinton by 10

Clinton 52
Trump 42
Johnson 4
Stein 2

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

About as likely D as Kansas is likely R.

Clinton: 51
Trump: 40
Others: 9

[LLR]

Safe Demoncrat,

Clinton by 14

[Redban]

Safe Demoncrat,

Clinton by 14

Obama in 2008 won the state by only 11%, and Hillary won't surpass that performance; stop this nonsense.

[Flake]

Safe D, Hillary+12%

[Gass3268]

Safe D

53-44-3

[Nyvin]

Safe D

If Education is the dividing line for this election,  Clinton is on the right side of it for Minnesota.

[LLR]

Safe Demoncrat,

Clinton by 14

Obama in 2008 won the state by only 11%, and Hillary won't surpass that performance; stop this nonsense.

Trump is going to get crushed with the growing Hmong and Somali populations. Just ask BRTD.

[heatcharger]

Safe D
Clinton 52
Trump 40
Other 8

Not even in "muh close and competitive election" would Trump have a shot here.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely D.

✓ Clinton: 51.3%
Trump: 41.5%
Others: 7.2%

[Xing]

Similar to Michigan, it's very close to being Safe D, but I'm not yet comfortable going that far, especially without any recent polls.

Likely D, Hillary wins 53-42.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm a bit concerned that the swing in rural Midwest voters that has already happened in Missouri and that appears to be happening in Iowa may show up in Minnesota, but Trump's under-performance with college-educated voters probably offsets quite a bit of that. Likely D for now, but bordering on Safe D.

Clinton 50%
Trump 40%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

[tinman64]

Safe D this cycle - but MN is ripe for some GOP gains at some point.

Clinton 52
Trump 43
Others 5

[Koharu]

I'm a bit concerned that the swing in rural Midwest voters that has already happened in Missouri and that appears to be happening in Iowa may show up in Minnesota...

Rural Minnesota is dying off. The Twin Cities, Rochester, Mankato, St. Cloud, and other metro areas are booming with recent grads. The people I know who are Republican won't touch Trump with a 100 foot pole. My relatives who are still Republican are actually quite angry about Trump. Don't forget: Minnesota went for Rubio in the primaries.

Also, the only reason the population in southern rural Minnesota isn't tanking even faster is the Hispanic families moving in and actually having kids. In the 2010 census, it's not surprising to see towns sitting at over 30% Hispanic. Of course, this means that these areas are likely to go to Trump, because the white folks there are exactly Trump's target market, but I don't think it will be "unanimous." And when these rural counties only have 20-30,000 people total (or even only 12k like where my dad lives), there's just no way their votes will stack up against the urban areas, which are going to go for Hillary.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm a bit concerned that the swing in rural Midwest voters that has already happened in Missouri and that appears to be happening in Iowa may show up in Minnesota...

Rural Minnesota is dying off. The Twin Cities, Rochester, Mankato, St. Cloud, and other metro areas are booming with recent grads. The people I know who are Republican won't touch Trump with a 100 foot pole. My relatives who are still Republican are actually quite angry about Trump. Don't forget: Minnesota went for Rubio in the primaries.

Also, the only reason the population in southern rural Minnesota isn't tanking even faster is the Hispanic families moving in and actually having kids. In the 2010 census, it's not surprising to see towns sitting at over 30% Hispanic. Of course, this means that these areas are likely to go to Trump, because the white folks there are exactly Trump's target market, but I don't think it will be "unanimous." And when these rural counties only have 20-30,000 people total (or even only 12k like where my dad lives), there's just no way their votes will stack up against the urban areas, which are going to go for Hillary.

Correct

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Similar to Michigan, it's very close to being Safe D, but I'm not yet comfortable going that far, especially without any recent polls.

Likely D, Hillary wins 53-42.

Not sure about the margin (I'd say third parties could pull a bit more), but I agree with the rest.

[Dr. Arch]

Safe D
Clinton 52
Trump 40
Other 8

Not even in "muh close and competitive election" would Trump have a shot here.

[evergreenarbor]

Safe D.

Clinton: 53
Trump: 39
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2

[Spark]

Likely D.

Clinton 54
Trump 43
Johnson 3

[Reginald]

Isn't MN one of the most educated states in the country? That along with having a history of a higher-than-average third-party vote doesn't bode well for the GOP at all in terms of a swing or anything like that. 43% tops IMO, might not even hit 40.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Lean D

Clinton 52
Trump 45
Johnson 2
Stein 1

[OwlRhetoric]

Safe (D), sadly. This was never a battleground state, and it only seemed close in 2000 because Nader got over 5%.

[Breton Racer]

Safe D

Clinton- 51%
Trump- 40%
Johnson- 6%