Roanoke College: Clinton +16 in Virginia
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  Roanoke College: Clinton +16 in Virginia
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Author Topic: Roanoke College: Clinton +16 in Virginia  (Read 3403 times)
Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« on: August 23, 2016, 06:21:49 AM »
« edited: August 23, 2016, 06:23:53 AM by Interlocutor »

August 7-17 (Last poll was May 9-17)
803 Likely Voters, 3.5 MoE

Clinton: 48% (+10)
Trump: 32% (-6)
Johnson: 8%
Stein: 3%
Undecided/Don't know: 9% (-2)


http://www.wdbj7.com/content/news/Latest-Roanoke-College-poll-Dismal-for-Trump-improvements-for-Clinton-391006541.html
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2016, 06:23:44 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2016, 06:36:21 AM by Speed of Sound »

Probably should be, but I'm not familiar with their reputation in the state. Are they respected? At any rate, it certainly falls in line with previous polls and the campaign gossip/decisions. Big piece of the firewall. (Edit: though I should have mentioned, as Desroko did, that the margin is probably too high)
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Desroko
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2016, 06:30:18 AM »

Blended sample, live interviewers, bilingual, and the demos look decent except for a way too large youth subsample. Still looks like an outlier.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2016, 06:47:50 AM »

They had this race as a tie the last time they polled (in May), they tend to lean to the right. I think they had Romney up in their last poll of 2012. This probably explains why both sides aren't running ads here. Virginia is possibly almost Safe D by now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2016, 06:55:11 AM »

Looking at the cross tabs:

- Clinton is winning men by 2%, women by 27%
- Only losing white voters by 3%, Trump is only getting 4% of African American voters
- Clinton is winning every age group (closest in the 18-29 group interesting enough, only winning 34%-30%)
- Clinton is winning in NoVA by 42%, Richmond Area by 33%, and the Tidewater area by 10%
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2016, 07:02:09 AM »

They had this race as a tie the last time they polled (in May), they tend to lean to the right. I think they had Romney up in their last poll of 2012. This probably explains why both sides aren't running ads here. Virginia is possibly almost Safe D by now.
It is a C+ (as RABA) pollster with D+0.3 house effect according to 538.

It seems like outlier, but it'll cancell out by RABA who seemed even more outlier'ish. Still Clinton seems leading by 8-10.

Polls was conducted  August 7 and August 17, BTW.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2016, 07:04:12 AM »

I would love this to be true, but... nah.

Clinton is doing extremely well here, so it's not so ridiculous... but it's more like Clinton +10-ish
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windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2016, 07:07:10 AM »

Roanoke College has always been quite dumb
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heatcharger
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2016, 07:55:46 AM »

Topline is probably an outlier, but he's going nowhere in this state with those numbers in Northern Virginia and Richmond.

Hopefully he stops holding rallies here.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2016, 08:12:29 AM »

Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

At this point, the difference between a 16-point lead and a 10-point lead are practically meaningless except in adding another 9 to the percentage of likeliness of a Hillary Clinton win of Virginia. The door is slammed shut and locked. 

I am not doing much averaging this time. A three-week-old poll is obsolete when one of the nominees is as erratic and uncoachable as Donald Trump. Sure, his supporters are wildly enthusiastic, but that happens when a candidate has practically no moderate support (as with Goldwater in 1964 or McGovern in 1972).

Topline is probably an outlier, but he's going nowhere in this state with those numbers in Northern Virginia and Richmond.

Hopefully he stops holding rallies here.
 

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2016, 08:30:13 AM »

It is also known as a the Roajoke poll, because they had Romney winning VA by 10 a few days before the election.
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Flake
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« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2016, 08:39:25 AM »

New Poll: Virginia President by Roanoke College on 2016-08-17

Summary: D: 48%, R: 32%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2016, 08:50:18 AM »

This a little off. She’ll win by at least five points, but not by double digits.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2016, 08:58:27 AM »

This a little off. She’ll win by at least five points, but not by double digits.
She's lead by double digits in nearly every recent Virginia poll.  This is her biggest lead to date, but it isn't that much of an outlier
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2016, 09:54:03 AM »

Probably too good to be true, but dang, it looks like Trump really will lose Virginia by more than Goldwater did.
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Desroko
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2016, 10:00:19 AM »

Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

Liberals (and I am one) tend to discount the psychic benefits offered by racism, xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, and religious intolerance.
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Wells
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2016, 10:04:01 AM »

Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

Liberals (and I am one) tend to discount the psychic benefits offered by racism, xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, and religious intolerance.

What?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2016, 10:05:27 AM »

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

Trump and other Republicans can run up the score as much as they want in the boonies, the fact is no Republican will ever win Virginia when they're losing Northern Virginia by 42%.
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Desroko
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2016, 10:12:09 AM »

Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

Liberals (and I am one) tend to discount the psychic benefits offered by racism, xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, and religious intolerance.

What?

Individuals whose identities are valued by society (generally white, straight, Christian men) derive psychic benefits from being members of a favored ingroup. For many of those ingroup members with low incomes and education, it actually trumps material interests - the old "I may be a dirt-poor redneck, but at least I ain't a ni***r".

It's why economic appeals to poor whites in the South have consistently failed since the civil rights era - they resent that the same social programs and protections are available to minorities, and resent the implication that they're the equals of those groups.  
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Wells
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2016, 10:16:07 AM »

Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

Liberals (and I am one) tend to discount the psychic benefits offered by racism, xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, and religious intolerance.

What?

Individuals whose identities are valued by society (generally white, straight, Christian men) derive psychic benefits from being members of a favored ingroup. For many of those ingroup members with low incomes and education, it actually trumps material interests - the old "I may be a dirt-poor redneck, but at least I ain't a ni***r".

It's why economic appeals to poor whites in the South have consistently failed since the civil rights era - they resent that the same social programs and protections are available to minorities, and resent the implication that they're the equals of those groups.  

Do you mean psychological benefits?
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Desroko
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2016, 10:30:58 AM »

Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

Liberals (and I am one) tend to discount the psychic benefits offered by racism, xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, and religious intolerance.

What?

Individuals whose identities are valued by society (generally white, straight, Christian men) derive psychic benefits from being members of a favored ingroup. For many of those ingroup members with low incomes and education, it actually trumps material interests - the old "I may be a dirt-poor redneck, but at least I ain't a ni***r".

It's why economic appeals to poor whites in the South have consistently failed since the civil rights era - they resent that the same social programs and protections are available to minorities, and resent the implication that they're the equals of those groups.  

Do you mean psychological benefits?

No - it's a term that originated in economics to describe the non-material benefits of work, and has since been adopted by sociology to describe the intangible rewards of other areas of society. Sometimes called psychic rewards or income.

Bizarrely, one of the top Google results by Malcolm Gladwell about the NBA, but it's actually a decent explanation.

http://grantland.com/features/psychic-benefits-nba-lockout/
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2016, 10:38:17 AM »

Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

Liberals (and I am one) tend to discount the psychic benefits offered by racism, xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, and religious intolerance.

What?

Individuals whose identities are valued by society (generally white, straight, Christian men) derive psychic benefits from being members of a favored ingroup. For many of those ingroup members with low incomes and education, it actually trumps material interests - the old "I may be a dirt-poor redneck, but at least I ain't a ni***r".

It's why economic appeals to poor whites in the South have consistently failed since the civil rights era - they resent that the same social programs and protections are available to minorities, and resent the implication that they're the equals of those groups.  
Is it based on your gut feeling?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2016, 05:08:11 PM »

This a little off. She’ll win by at least five points, but not by double digits.
She's lead by double digits in nearly every recent Virginia poll.  This is her biggest lead to date, but it isn't that much of an outlier

Agreed... throw it into the hopper even though it does appear to be quite a bit off and we'll see what numbers look like after labor day.

WP and Q are both average out to an A rating and when you average out their adjusted Nate numbers look like a +10 Clinton with LVs, but still it is the part of the Summer where more people are out and about.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2016, 06:16:17 PM »

they're a really bad pollster.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2016, 06:33:00 PM »

Like the St. Leo poll, I don't have to use it... and I won't. There are and will be plenty of polls of Virginia. 
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