Speaker in 2017 if Dems pick up 15-20 seats

[Orser67]

If Democrats pick up several House seats in the 2016 election, but not enough to take the House, will Ryan be able to win re-election as Speaker? Or will the Freedom Caucus be able/want to deny him re-election?

[Heisenberg]

If Democrats pick up several House seats in the 2016 election, but not enough to take the House, will Ryan be able to win re-election as Speaker? Or will the Freedom Caucus be able/want to deny him re-election?

I hope the Freedom Caucus doesn't bully Ryan out. This destructive group of extreme Representatives just needs to die. Constructive conservatism is the way the House GOP needs to go.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, Ryan would be reelected. There’s nobody else acceptable to both factions. The mainstream GOPers won’t vote for a Tea-Partyier like Webster.

[windjammer]

If Republicans still have at least a 5 seats majority, Ryan would keep his job

[Vosem]

Ryan keeps his job unless the majority is very narrow (no chance of this happening if Republicans>225 seats), in which case there's a chance that a small pissed group of moderates aligns with the Dems (Independent Republican Conference, anyone?) and installs one of their own as Speaker, perhaps Charlie Dent or Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. There're very few Republicans who'd go along with this, and many of them (Jolly, Dold, Poliquin) sit in some of the most vulnerable seats in the House and would almost certainly be gone if the Republicans sink so low.

[Maxwell]

If GOP has a tiny majority, I hope Dems do as the Dems did in Texas - oust the current speaker with a Charlie Dent type character.

[Dereich]

The only viable leadership candidates at the moment are Ryan, McCarthy, and Scalise. The Freedom Caucus would prefer Scalise but are just fine with Ryan and they don't have the votes or allies to replace him even if they wanted to do so.

Never forget that the Freedom Caucus people are still politicians who want power and reelection; they just won't suicide-bomb the GOP because they're not getting their way. They are only now slowly getting out of the dead-end committee positions and crappy speaking times Boehner had forced them into by the end of his term. Agreeing to Ryan getting in was the beginning of a rapprochement that they won't throw away for no reason; the whole GOP caucus understands that Ryan is a good thing for them and is promoting a more proactive and positive legislative vision than the GOP have had since the 90s.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If Democrats pick up several House seats in the 2016 election, but not enough to take the House, will Ryan be able to win re-election as Speaker? Or will the Freedom Caucus be able/want to deny him re-election?

No, I think the Freedom Caucus will ultimately be OK with Ryan.

[Green Line]

We will have to see what happens in the upcoming months.  Ryan hasn't pissed anyone in the Freedom club off yet but that's because most of the tough decisions have been pushed off.

[Orser67]

On the one hand, I think that House Republicans will be inclined to rally around Ryan if Democrats are in control of the Senate and presidency. On the other hand, I don't think we should overestimate the pragmatism of the Freedom Caucus. Some of them may feel like it's best to fall in line, but others may want promises that Ryan will fight Clinton on various issues that Ryan might not feel comfortable making.

[Sir Mohamed]

Another interesting question: Who becomes GOP leader if Dems win the House?

[Vosem]

Another interesting question: Who becomes GOP leader if Dems win the House?

Isn't Scalise very, very likely? McCarthy seems not to have the necessary support within the caucus. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is a possible dark-horse, as perhaps are Patrick McHenry/Greg Walden.

[Heisenberg]

Another interesting question: Who becomes GOP leader if Dems win the House?

Isn't Scalise very, very likely? McCarthy seems not to have the necessary support within the caucus. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is a possible dark-horse, as perhaps are Patrick McHenry/Greg Walden.

I can see McCarthy soon resigning from leadership altogether. Scalise is a possibility, though I don't think the more moderate Republicans would support him. McMorris Rodgers is a better pick, she can appeal to both the Main Street Partnership and Study Committee. McHenry and Walden are also good choices, the latter will be termed out of his post as NRCC Chairman, he may want to jump to another spot.

[Vosem]

Another question: Let's say the Dems do pick up the House. Pelosi serves as Speaker for about 8 months before, in 2017, announces her resignation. I doubt Hoyer would get the job (Pelosi would make sure that he didn't), and while I agree with the people who say that Becerra is the obvious alternative, there is a non zero chance that he could be running for the Class 1 Senate Seat in 2018 assuming that Feinstein retires, so he might not want the job. A lot of people suggested Joseph Crowley (which seems reasonable), but what about Keith Ellison?

If Dems pick up the House, Hillary is presumably winning an absolutely massive majority upballot, and one of the most consistent patterns from the Clintons is rewarding their friends. Ellison was part of a tiny minority of congressional Sanders endorsers -- he will not be a significant part of the Democratic leadership so long as Hillary is in office. A serious primary challenger is likelier (though it seems like he's popular in his district, so I doubt that would go well).

I really doubt Becerra would run for the Senate -- he has much, much more to gain from remaining in the House. With van Hollen gone from the House and Pelosi/Hoyer/Clyburn all getting way up there in years, his path to the Democratic leadership is obstacle-free. Even without Democrats taking the House in 2016, he's young and safe enough that he's almost bound to be Speaker of the House eventually.

[Mr. Morden]

Has Ryan even confirmed that he's going to run for Speaker again?  On the off chance that he intends to run for president in 2020, he may be better off getting out now.

[Trapsy]

Has Ryan even confirmed that he's going to run for Speaker again?  On the off chance that he intends to run for president in 2020, he may be better off getting out now.

If they lose the senate, Ryan is gonna have a rough stretch trying to keep the house in order,  We already have candidates running "Keep HRC in check" campaigns, combining that with the Freedom caucus is gonna be rough.

[Illiniwek]

Has Ryan even confirmed that he's going to run for Speaker again?  On the off chance that he intends to run for president in 2020, he may be better off getting out now.

If they lose the senate, Ryan is gonna have a rough stretch trying to keep the house in order,  We already have candidates running "Keep HRC in check" campaigns, combining that with the Freedom caucus is gonna be rough.

If he wants to get out now to avoid some ugliness, fine. BUT he will have a VERY underwhelming House Speaker resume. Anyone will be able to ask, "and you accomplished what exactly?"

[Kingpoleon]

Probably Ryan, unless Webster and Dent and all their followers unite behind someone like Justin Amash, Walter Jones, Sr., Jimmy Duncan, or Duncan Hunter.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Has Ryan even confirmed that he's going to run for Speaker again?  On the off chance that he intends to run for president in 2020, he may be better off getting out now.

If they lose the senate, Ryan is gonna have a rough stretch trying to keep the house in order,  We already have candidates running "Keep HRC in check" campaigns, combining that with the Freedom caucus is gonna be rough.

If he wants to get out now to avoid some ugliness, fine. BUT he will have a VERY underwhelming House Speaker resume. Anyone will be able to ask, "and you accomplished what exactly?"

Holding this GOP caucus together in such tumultuous times is a huge accomplishment in itself, and he should be very proud. I think he's the only one in that caucus who could have done it.

He also hasn't had the chance to accomplish much policy-wise yet.

[Mr. Morden]

HuffPuff claims that "if Republicans lose more than a dozen seats" in November, then the renegade right wing of the House GOP caucus might try to deny Ryan a majority vote for Speaker on the first ballot:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paul-ryan-conservative-coup_us_57c4c63ae4b0664f13ca3715

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[politicallefty]

Another question: Let's say the Dems do pick up the House. Pelosi serves as Speaker for about 8 months before, in 2017, announces her resignation. I doubt Hoyer would get the job (Pelosi would make sure that he didn't), and while I agree with the people who say that Becerra is the obvious alternative, there is a non zero chance that he could be running for the Class 1 Senate Seat in 2018 assuming that Feinstein retires, so he might not want the job. A lot of people suggested Joseph Crowley (which seems reasonable), but what about Keith Ellison?

If Pelosi gets the gavel back in January, there's no way she's going to resign early. She will not pass up the opportunity to pass major legislation, not to mention being the one to introduce the first woman President for the State of the Union twice. A Speaker Pelosi introducing a President Hillary Clinton is history doubled, as it would be the first time there would be two women among the three you see. If she does become Speaker again, I do think she will announce her retirement in the spring of 2018. I believe Nancy Pelosi absolutely wants one more term as Speaker and to retire on top. Pelosi has made sure Hoyer will never be Speaker. The House Democratic Leadership post-Pelosi/Hoyer/Clyburn should be interesting. The most natural succession would be having Becerra on top and Crowley as second in command (Democrats made the first woman Speaker, so it's only natural they make the first Latino Speaker). I think the third in command should be a woman, but I'm not sure who it should be.

[Kingpoleon]

Another question: Let's say the Dems do pick up the House. Pelosi serves as Speaker for about 8 months before, in 2017, announces her resignation. I doubt Hoyer would get the job (Pelosi would make sure that he didn't), and while I agree with the people who say that Becerra is the obvious alternative, there is a non zero chance that he could be running for the Class 1 Senate Seat in 2018 assuming that Feinstein retires, so he might not want the job. A lot of people suggested Joseph Crowley (which seems reasonable), but what about Keith Ellison?

If Pelosi gets the gavel back in January, there's no way she's going to resign early. She will not pass up the opportunity to pass major legislation, not to mention being the one to introduce the first woman President for the State of the Union twice. A Speaker Pelosi introducing a President Hillary Clinton is history doubled, as it would be the first time there would be two women among the three you see. If she does become Speaker again, I do think she will announce her retirement in the spring of 2018. I believe Nancy Pelosi absolutely wants one more term as Speaker and to retire on top. Pelosi has made sure Hoyer will never be Speaker. The House Democratic Leadership post-Pelosi/Hoyer/Clyburn should be interesting. The most natural succession would be having Becerra on top and Crowley as second in command (Democrats made the first woman Speaker, so it's only natural they make the first Latino Speaker). I think the third in command should be a woman, but I'm not sure who it should be.

Steve Israel and Ben Ray Lujan have experience in the party House leadership. Do you think maybe Niki Tsongas would be a good potential Democratic House leader? Joaquin Castro, Kyrsten Sinema, Keith Ellison, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz are the big names of the Democratic Chief Deputy Whips. John Lewis is the Senior Democratic Chief Deputy Whip, but he's 76. Diana DeGette and Terri Sewell are the only not mentioned female Chief Deputy Whips under seventy. Ron Kind was a chief deputy whip from 2003-2007.

[Heisenberg]

Steve Israel and Ben Ray Lujan have experience in the party House leadership. Do you think maybe Niki Tsongas would be a good potential Democratic House leader? Joaquin Castro, Kyrsten Sinema, Keith Ellison, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz are the big names of the Democratic Chief Deputy Whips. John Lewis is the Senior Democratic Chief Deputy Whip, but he's 76. Diana DeGette and Terri Sewell are the only not mentioned female Chief Deputy Whips under seventy. Ron Kind was a chief deputy whip from 2003-2007.

Israel is retiring, and I doubt DWS will get a promotion this soon after her controversies.

[Kingpoleon]

Ben Ray Lujan, Joaquin Castro, Kyrsten Sinema, Ron Kind, and maybe Sewell are the most likely to get promotions in my opinion.

[politicallefty]

Ben Ray Lujan, Joaquin Castro, Kyrsten Sinema, Ron Kind, and maybe Sewell are the most likely to get promotions in my opinion.

If Lujan can help Democrats get a House Majority, he's definitely in line for a promotion. Ideally, I'd like to keep him around for 2018 to help protect as many seats as possible. I can't see most of your list making Leadership. Generally, you have to be in Congress for quite some time to be eligible for a leadership position.