SC-The Feldman Group (D): Tied in 4-way, Trump +2 in Head to Head

[The Other Castro]

Trump - 39%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - Unknown
Stein - Unknown

Trump - 45%
Clinton - 43%

*This poll was commissioned by the SC Democratic Party, and included 600 likely voters between August 18-21.

The poll was just announced on Maddow, can't find the Johnson and Stein numbers yet:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/new-poll-shows-clinton-trump-tied-in-red-sc-749547075645?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Yank2133]

Hillary is likely down 3-5 points.

[psychprofessor]

battleground south carolina

[The Other Castro]

Response to this poll by the Chair of the SC Republican Party:

Matt Moore ‏@MattMooreSC  15m15 minutes ago
Bogus "commissioned by" poll. Internal polls across SC show @realDonaldTrump easily defeating @HillaryClinton here.

[DrScholl]

Let's not start the unskewing crap, because we all know how that ended that time. This is not the first poll to show South Carolina in single digits, even the Republican firm Gravis shows it close. The fact that South Carolina is even this close goes to show that this election is practically over.

[Dr. Arch]

#EastCoastSweep #13Colonies

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Response to this poll by the Chair of the SC Republican Party:

Matt Moore ‏@MattMooreSC  15m15 minutes ago
Bogus "commissioned by" poll. Internal polls across SC show @realDonaldTrump easily defeating @HillaryClinton here.

OK - put up or shut up, release your internal polling.

[Desroko]

Let's not start the unskewing crap, because we all know how that ended that time. This is not the first poll to show South Carolina in single digits, even the Republican firm Gravis shows it close. The fact that South Carolina is even this close goes to show that this election is practically over.

To be fair, a public poll commissioned by a party is basically one half step from a campaign internal poll. Lots of observers, including myself, exclude partisan polls. (You're right that nonpartisan polls are showing a close race too.)

[OneJ]

Is it bad that I don't really care about this poll as much as I really should because my own state is signaling that it isn't close?

[Classic Conservative]

Let's not start the unskewing crap, because we all know how that ended that time. This is not the first poll to show South Carolina in single digits, even the Republican firm Gravis shows it close. The fact that South Carolina is even this close goes to show that this election is practically over.

To be fair, a public poll commissioned by a party is basically one half step from a campaign internal poll. Lots of observers, including myself, exclude partisan polls. (You're right that nonpartisan polls are showing a close race too.)

Which one the PPP Poll was commissioned by the State Democratic Party

[Ebsy]

Is it bad that I don't really care about this poll as much as I really should because my own state is signaling that it isn't close?

I think a nonjunk poll of Mississippi might show a relatively close race, maybe somewhere in the realm of Trump+6-8.

[psychprofessor]

SC, MO, AZ (probably), IN and UT are fool's gold for Clinton, unless Trump totally implodes. Obama 2012 + GA and NC are the states she should focus on IMO. These two states are going to be more promising for Democrats in the longer term as well.

I don't understand this "fool's gold" mentality. It's not like she is actively campaigning in SC or Missouri at the moment. I think Arizona is worth it to topple McCain.

However, the race in GA and SC is tight right now. If she is able to destroy whatever credibility is left of Trump after the debates and the Republican party turns its attention to down ballot races exclusively, then she and her Super PAC should target ALL of these "low hanging fruit" states come October.

As of now, she has no ad buys scheduled in these states for the fall, but circumstances could change after the debates.

[heatcharger]

Response to this poll by the Chair of the SC Republican Party:

Matt Moore ‏@MattMooreSC  15m15 minutes ago
Bogus "commissioned by" poll. Internal polls across SC show @realDonaldTrump easily defeating @HillaryClinton here.

OK - put up or shut up, release your internal polling.

The GOP internals are rumored to have Trump down double digits in NC, so one could postulate he's not doing all too well in SC. The fact they are calling bogus on these D pollsters but not revealing their own means they have a similar conclusion.

[OneJ]

Is it bad that I don't really care about this poll as much as I really should because my own state is signaling that it isn't close?

I think a nonjunk poll of Mississippi might show a relatively close race, maybe somewhere in the realm of Trump+6-8.

The recent poll did overcount whites by 5 points and blacks by 4 points, but hey at least your state is close.

[dspNY]

I said that Clinton trails by 5 in SC on the internal poll thread because of my 5 point rule on internals. The one caveat is that the head to head matchup (Trump +2) matches the 538 Nowcast and polls-only so it could be true (although I think it is still a blue-tinted poll)

[Xing]

Of course Trump will win SC if he gains in the poll. But we should realize that it is an if. IF his situation doesn't improve, SC will be close.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

SC, MO, AZ (probably), IN and UT are fool's gold for Clinton, unless Trump totally implodes. Obama 2012 + GA and NC are the states she should focus on IMO. These two states are going to be more promising for Democrats in the longer term as well.

She hasn't even visited or spent money in SC and MO since their primaries. It just shouldn't be this close this late into August. This is the third poll to show a low-mid single digit lead for Trump. Pretty damn clear he's imploded, I don't know if completely imploded

[Seriously?]

Let's not start the unskewing crap, because we all know how that ended that time. This is not the first poll to show South Carolina in single digits, even the Republican firm Gravis shows it close. The fact that South Carolina is even this close goes to show that this election is practically over.

To be fair, a public poll commissioned by a party is basically one half step from a campaign internal poll. Lots of observers, including myself, exclude partisan polls. (You're right that nonpartisan polls are showing a close race too.)

Which one the PPP Poll was commissioned by the State Democratic Party

Yes. Seems like the Democrats are trying to create a narrative here. Tied with special sauce gets you on TV on shows like Maddow.

That immediately makes me suspicious. I'll generally discount internal-type public release polls from either side of the aisle.

[dspNY]

I googled the Feldman Group and they were Tammy Baldwin's internal pollster when she won her Senate race in 2012 (WI). The one poll they released back then looked like this:

"The Feldman Group for the Baldwin campaign (Sept. 9-12; 800 likely Wisconsin voters) gives their candidate a 50-45 percent lead over the Republican nominee."

http://www.ellisinsight.com/tag/feldman-group/

Baldwin won 51.4% to 45.9% so in that once instance their polling was ridiculously accurate. Different state, different electorate though

[pbrower2a]

Then this pollster may be worthy of attention. The best polls are often internal polls. 

[Desroko]

Let's not start the unskewing crap, because we all know how that ended that time. This is not the first poll to show South Carolina in single digits, even the Republican firm Gravis shows it close. The fact that South Carolina is even this close goes to show that this election is practically over.

To be fair, a public poll commissioned by a party is basically one half step from a campaign internal poll. Lots of observers, including myself, exclude partisan polls. (You're right that nonpartisan polls are showing a close race too.)

Which one the PPP Poll was commissioned by the State Democratic Party

I'll generally discount internal-type public release polls from either side of the aisle.

This a good practice.

[Seriously?]

Then this pollster may be worthy of attention. The best polls are often internal polls. 

Yeah, but those are often "leaked" internals. Not internal polls with public press releases.

I'm always leery when a political party tries to claim a lead like this via the press. How many times do we see or hear about that random "internal" that is nowhere near the actual result?

[dspNY]

Let's not start the unskewing crap, because we all know how that ended that time. This is not the first poll to show South Carolina in single digits, even the Republican firm Gravis shows it close. The fact that South Carolina is even this close goes to show that this election is practically over.

To be fair, a public poll commissioned by a party is basically one half step from a campaign internal poll. Lots of observers, including myself, exclude partisan polls. (You're right that nonpartisan polls are showing a close race too.)

Which one the PPP Poll was commissioned by the State Democratic Party

I'll generally discount internal-type public release polls from either side of the aisle.

This a good practice.

I add a few points to the other candidate when internals are discussed unless you have a situation where the candidate's own internals show them trailing by a lot

[dspNY]

Other Feldman Group polls from the last GE cycle:

NH-Gov: Hassan 44, Lamontagne 39 (October 10). Hassan won by 12 (54-42)

RI-1: Cicilline 46, Doherty 36 (September 17). Cicilline won by 12 (53-41). Cicilline was the Dem

CA-30: Sherman 51, Berman 26 (October 14). Sherman won by 20 (60-40). This was a Dem vs. Dem GE matchup

So they were definitely in the ballpark on all their polls and even underestimated Hassan and Cicilline in their races

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The Feldman Group is a very reputable firm.