If Hillary wins South Carolina and Georgia in '16, what about the future?
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  If Hillary wins South Carolina and Georgia in '16, what about the future?
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Author Topic: If Hillary wins South Carolina and Georgia in '16, what about the future?  (Read 1008 times)
Blue3
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« on: August 23, 2016, 09:23:40 PM »

If Hillary wins South Carolina and Georgia in '16, what about the future?

Yes, it could just be a one-off because of Trump... but still, Trump is still projected to win a bunch of states. And once they vote for Hillary in 2016, they'd be more "conditioned" to vote for her in 2020, even if the reasoning changes. And then there's future elections too, with changing demographics.

So, if she wins them this year, what's their future status?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2016, 10:42:12 PM »

Georgia would certainly not be a one-off, Trump would have just acted as a catalyst in the process of it turning into the new VA. It would also mean NC is slipping away from Republicans very fast. South Carolina will most likely return to the GOP, and it will take many more cycles for it to be a true swing state.

It would mean Republicans are in deep sh*t at the presidential level.

Let's say this is the battleground map in 2020, assuming Hillary/Kaine is going in with Obama 2012-like approval ratings:



248 D
175 R
115 T

I think this is being friendly to the Republicans by making PA, MI, and WI tossup states.

Anyways this is still bad terrain for them. They basically have to run the table in the Rust Belt (win a state they haven't won in 32 years) AND win Florida. Doable, but leaves them basically no room for error.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2016, 01:18:52 AM »

South Carolina would be like Indiana in 2008; a one time thing. Georgia could cause bigger problems for Republicans. If they start losing that much of the sun belt consistently, they need to start winning more Midwestern states, or they're done.
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LLR
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2016, 07:17:33 AM »

South Carolina is a Trump-only problem, but it is a problem. I've been saying this for months.
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Redban
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2016, 07:28:45 AM »

Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, and Missouri was a tie. Today, both states are safe Republican.

If Hillary wins SC and GA (big "if"), then they will simply revert to Republican states in future elections.
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Figueira
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 12:59:40 PM »

Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, and Missouri was a tie. Today, both states are safe Republican.

If Hillary wins SC and GA (big "if"), then they will simply revert to Republican states in future elections.

Missouri is Lean R. Georgia has been Lean R since 2008 and will continue to be that in the future.

Also, Missouri was trending rightward in 2008, having been a swing state prior to that. Bad comparison.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2016, 01:29:48 PM »

The ONLY reason these states are competitive is because of Trump.  That's it.  Any other Republican would be winning by 10+ points.
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Medal506
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2016, 11:17:53 AM »

If she wins the election and wins Georgia and South Carolina. In 2020 Ted Cruz will more than likely be the nominee and will expand the white vote and the young vote. and will get young white people and women to vote for him
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