Most likely Trump victory map according to Election Graphs

[twenty42]

Trump 273
Clinton 265

The tipping point is Connecticut of all states, where Trump is down by 6% according to their current calculations. Very bizarre.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Connecticut?!

[Sir Mohamed]

CT? Uh.... uh.... no.

[Redban]

Connecticut? He's more likely to take New Hampshire, if you want to pick a Northeast state.

[Illiniwek]

Stop it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Connecticut?!

Quinnipiac had Trump behind only 5 points in CT back in June, which is much better that Trump was doing at the time in WI, PA, or VA, or is doing now.  However, if you look at the Big Q poll in PA at the same time, Trump was doing better.  He was also doing better in VA according to PPP, though that isn't an apples-to-apples comparison.

tl;dr Map is based on one poll in CT that had Trump doing well, almost 3 months ago.

[Lyin' Steve]

It's 7 electoral votes and he was only down by 7 points there.
CT+RI (or NH) and NV are enough to get Trump to 270 without PA.

Really dude?

And to think your name was JUST removed from the deluge. Trying to win back the title?

He's down by double digits in Pennsylvania, which is like six times larger than Connecticut.
If he's only down seven in CT, and it's a smaller state, and he can win without PA if he takes CT then it's not completely senseless for him to target it.  Maybe targeting a state where Hillary's weak and the Democrats weren't expecting a fight makes more sense than targeting Pennsylvania, if he thinks he's going to win Nevada and Iowa (forgot to include Iowa for him in my map, he doesn't actually need RI/NH to get to 270).

I'm not saying it's a good strategy, but if he can't win PA or VA then good strategies start to become pretty scarce, and this is better than nothing.

Here's the CT map:

I will now accept my accolades.

[Wells]

It's 7 electoral votes and he was only down by 7 points there.
CT+RI (or NH) and NV are enough to get Trump to 270 without PA.

Really dude?

And to think your name was JUST removed from the deluge. Trying to win back the title?

He's down by double digits in Pennsylvania, which is like six times larger than Connecticut.
If he's only down seven in CT, and it's a smaller state, and he can win without PA if he takes CT then it's not completely senseless for him to target it.  Maybe targeting a state where Hillary's weak and the Democrats weren't expecting a fight makes more sense than targeting Pennsylvania, if he thinks he's going to win Nevada and Iowa (forgot to include Iowa for him in my map, he doesn't actually need RI/NH to get to 270).

I'm not saying it's a good strategy, but if he can't win PA or VA then good strategies start to become pretty scarce, and this is better than nothing.

Here's the CT map:

I will now accept my accolades.

No. The idea of Connecticut going R is stupid and it's just become dumber now that someone else agrees with you.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Trump gets a 2-point win, he's almost certain to take the Electoral College.  That means taking at least one of the following:

Pennsylvania
Virginia
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Michigan
Connecticut
Edit: or Colorado

They all look pretty lol now, but so does Trump winning by 2 points.  Honestly, the one that looks the most in reach is Michigan Colorado.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is Trump's victory map.  Trump ain't taking any of the red-colored states below.  No way, no how:

Of course, Trump isn't winning anyway.

[Kevin]

If Trump gets a 2-point win, he's almost certain to take the Electoral College.  That means taking at least one of the following:

Pennsylvania
Virginia
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Michigan
Connecticut
Edit: or Colorado

They all look pretty lol now, but so does Trump winning by 2 points.  Honestly, the one that looks the most in reach is Michigan Colorado.

Personally I'd give him PA and/or MI before CO.  Trump is a better fitting candidate for ether of those.

[Xing]

CT and NV polls are garbage. Trump has no chance in either state.

[Nyvin]

Trump is not winning Connecticut. 

[Arbitrage1980]

The notion of Trump winning CT is laughable. Not gonna happen. Aside from Litchfield, I can't think of a county that Trump will actually win. Romney lost it by more than 17%; I think Trump loses it by 20%.

I think his likeliest path to the White House is an electoral tie at 269, assuming that GOP keeps the House (if the election is that close they most certainly will).  Keep all the Romney states and add FL, OH, NH, IA, NV. All those states are more realistic for Trump than CO, VA, PA, WI, MI, since the latter have a higher % of college educated whites and with the exception of WI, a higher % of minorities. (FL does have a lot of Latinos obviously, but it's a huge state with tons of conservative whites in panhandle, Orlando, and Hillsborough County).

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Trump isn't gonna win. Pigs have a better chance at flying than Trump winning.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump isn't gonna win. Pigs have a better chance at flying than Trump winning.

This.

As it stands now, here are the RCP averages of states outside Trump's 265 ceiling (259 without NV):

Michigan: Clinton +7.3
Pennsylvania: Clinton +9.2
New Hampshire: Clinton +9.3 (needs NV to get to 269)
Wisconsin: Clinton +9.4
Colorado: Clinton +10.8 (needs NV to win)
Minnesota: Clinton +12 in April poll (for 269, needs NV to win)
Virginia: Clinton +12.8

The fact that we're talking about Michigan on Trump's path is absurd.  Realistically, it's looking like Trump needs about a 9-point swing nationwide to have any chance.

Oh, BTW, he also has to hold all of these:

Ohio: Clinton +4.8
Florida: Clinton +3.6
North Carolina: Clinton +1.8
Iowa: Clinton +1.5 (or Nevada: Clinton +2.3)
Georgia: Clinton +0.3
Arizona: Trump +0.3

I don't see how he comes back.  Those kinds of deficits are serious, and time is running out.  Does Trump really need to get to +3 nationwide to win?  And which state flips?

[Nym90]

This is Trump's victory map.  Trump ain't taking any of the red-colored states below.  No way, no how:

Of course, Trump isn't winning anyway.

He has a better chance in New Hampshire or in Maine's second district than in Colorado, but otherwise I agree. He could get to 270 exactly if he won both but didn't win CO.

If Trump won NH but lost ME-02 and CO, it would be fascinating to see what the "never Trump" members of Congress would do in the House vote.

[President Johnson]

The Donald winning Connecticut? LOL.

[Vosem]

All Trump victory maps are tied for most likely (0%), so you could say this one is most likely, yes, though you omit the fact that it is tied with innumerable others.

[Heisenberg]

Connecticut? He's more likely to take New Hampshire, if you want to pick a Northeast state.

Stop pretending New Hampshire is competitive.

[PollsDontLie]

The Donald winning Connecticut? LOL.

One would think that he must have internal polls showing that it is close if he was wasting his time campaigning there recently.

[Adam the Gr8]

What is with this Connecticut nonsense?

[Breton Racer]

As of today Trump could not win outright, best case scenario is a 269-269 tie, House Republicans choose Trump.

Clinton/Kaine-45.6%(269 Electoral Votes)
Trump/Pence-45.1%(269 Electoral Votes)

[Xing]

As of today Trump could not win outright, best case scenario is a 269-269 tie, House Republicans choose Trump.

Clinton/Kaine-45.6%(269 Electoral Votes)
Trump/Pence-45.1%(269 Electoral Votes)

Even that would never happen. NV is solid for Hillary, and NH isn't far behind.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

As of today Trump could not win outright, best case scenario is a 269-269 tie, House Republicans choose Trump.

Clinton/Kaine-45.6%(269 Electoral Votes)
Trump/Pence-45.1%(269 Electoral Votes)

Even that would never happen. NV is solid for Hillary, and NH isn't far behind.

Why does everyone seem to think this? There are a lot of Hispanics in NV, yes, but there are also a lot of non-college whites, many of whom were Obama voters but may go to Trump this year. If you look at the map that the Times released a while ago, Nevada is actually a state with more uneducated white Obama voters than Hispanic or educated white Romney voters, which means that Trump has more room to grow. Besides, even if the polls are off by 5 points, they still show Clinton ahead by 6 or 7 at most, which is closer than, say, PA. Don't take Nevada for granted.