Most likely Trump victory map according to Election Graphs

[Xing]

As of today Trump could not win outright, best case scenario is a 269-269 tie, House Republicans choose Trump.

Clinton/Kaine-45.6%(269 Electoral Votes)
Trump/Pence-45.1%(269 Electoral Votes)

Even that would never happen. NV is solid for Hillary, and NH isn't far behind.

Why does everyone seem to think this? There are a lot of Hispanics in NV, yes, but there are also a lot of non-college whites, many of whom were Obama voters but may go to Trump this year. If you look at the map that the Times released a while ago, Nevada is actually a state with more uneducated white Obama voters than Hispanic or educated white Romney voters, which means that Trump has more room to grow. Besides, even if the polls are off by 5 points, they still show Clinton ahead by 6 or 7 at most, which is closer than, say, PA. Don't take Nevada for granted.

Considering that Romney lost NV by nearly 7% (more than every swing state that year except Wisconsin), and Trump is set to do significantly worse among Latinos and educated white voters (not to mention Mormons) than Romney, it won't be enough for Trump to simply do better among whites without a college degree. He'd need an absolutely absurd swing among those voters to win the state, and it's simply not going to happen. It's much more likely that the polls are just off in Nevada, since there's plenty of historical precedent for that.

[skoods]

Connecticut? He's more likely to take New Hampshire, if you want to pick a Northeast state.

Stop pretending New Hampshire is competitive.

^This. It is so annoying.

I'm pretty sure he was saying it was more competitive than Connecticut. Which isn't wrong.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Great post. Says it all.

[RosettaStoned]

  Trump will not win Connecticut, but he will win New Hampshire and Maine's Second Congressional District. 

[Vosem]

On a different note of "models have more confidence in states which are frequently polled, resulting in Trump's likeliest victory map requiring a state he is manifestly unlikely to win before common swing states", this seems to be NYT's "likeliest Trump win", with Minnesota as the tipping point state:

Connecticut is judged to be the likeliest of the states marked red on this map to flip, by the way.

[Maxwell]

The Donald winning Connecticut? LOL.

One would think that he must have internal polls showing that it is close if he was wasting his time campaigning there recently.

uh he doesn't do internal polling.