Trump's "realistic" pickups
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Poll
Question: Which of these could Trump "realistically" win?
#1
Florida		  
#2
Ohio		  
#3
Iowa		  
#4
Nevada		  
#5
None of these		  
#6
Even North Carolina is off the table		  
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Total Voters: 66

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Author Topic: Trump's "realistic" pickups  (Read 1013 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
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« on: August 24, 2016, 10:45:35 AM »
Have a guess.
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White Trash
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2016, 10:50:16 AM »
Iowa and Ohio seem to make the most sense demographically. But my gut gives me a bad feeling about Florida this year.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2016, 10:51:27 AM »
Only Iowa and Ohio, but North Carolina is also slowly moving off the table.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2016, 10:52:07 AM »
Iowa, Ohio, and MAYBE Florida. Nevada is Safe Hillary.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2016, 12:03:39 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 24, 2016, 10:52:07 AM
Iowa, Ohio, and MAYBE Florida. Nevada is Safe Hillary.

Why is IA more likely than FL? Romney lost FL by just 0.9%, and the past 3 GOP nominees have underperformed in IA relative to their national popular vote percentage.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 12:12:21 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 24, 2016, 10:52:07 AM
Iowa, Ohio, and MAYBE Florida. Nevada is Safe Hillary.

I don't think Hillary has led outside the MoE in any NV poll.  While there's truth to "muh Nevada is impossible to poll," one must at least entertain the notion that pollsters learned from their mistakes in 2012, and these polls are an accurate picture.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2016, 02:27:38 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 24, 2016, 12:03:39 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 24, 2016, 10:52:07 AM
Iowa, Ohio, and MAYBE Florida. Nevada is Safe Hillary.

Why is IA more likely than FL? Romney lost FL by just 0.9%, and the past 3 GOP nominees have underperformed in IA relative to their national popular vote percentage.

Demographics.  Mostly it's that Florida has a higher proportion of Hispanic voters, and has seen a surge in registration from them recently.  This is good for Clinton, bad for Trump.  Iowa has a much whiter electorate.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2016, 02:33:10 PM »
As of now, only Iowa.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2016, 02:34:23 PM »
He could win Iowa, and Ohio is possible too, but Florida is unlikely. Nevada is fool's gold.

Tossup
Iowa

Lean Clinton
Ohio

Likely Clinton
Florida

Safe Clinton
Nevada
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2016, 02:34:27 PM »
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2016, 05:23:23 PM »
He can win Iowa (which I think will be one of the most competitive states in the election), and maybe Ohio if things improve for him.

Florida and Nevada are downright impossible at this point.
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Nym90
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2016, 05:25:47 PM »
Iowa and Ohio.

The Hispanic vote will sink Trump in Florida and Nevada, even if the race tightens.
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indysaff
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2016, 05:26:41 PM »
Just Iowa.
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PollsDontLie
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« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2016, 05:28:12 PM »
Iowa and Nevada.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2016, 05:50:50 PM »
I could see any of the four happening if the race tightens, with Iowa being the first to go, though Nevada's polling has tended to show it right on the margins as well. I'd put NC between IA/NV and OH, with FL maybe half a point to the left of all of them.
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